There's no sugarcoating it. This is a must-win game for the Texas Tech football team, and even winning the game may not be enough to quell the uneasy feeling in the pit of fans' stomachs.

Usually, Week 3 matchups are a final tuneup for Big 12 Conference play where the result is a foregone conclusion. The Red Raiders (1-1) have lost that luxury with back-to-back stinkers to open the 2024 season. The defensive malfunction against Abilene Christian and the team's inability to hold on to the ball or finish drives against Washington State have Tech fans on edge.

Another former Red Raider comes to town on Saturday. North Texas (2-0) pays Jones AT&T Stadium a visit on Saturday (11 a.m., FS1) led by head coach Eric Morris, who learned Mike Leach's concepts when he played for the late coach at Tech and implemented some at UNT.

Can Texas Tech right the ship? Or is UNT about to be the iceberg to Joey McGuire's Titanic?

When Texas Tech football runs the ball

Much of this depends on whether Texas Tech running back Tahj Brooks will return. The super senior had his streak of playing in 32 straight games snapped at Washington State due to an arm injury. Tech turned to junior Cam'Ron Valdez and true freshman Cameron Dickey. The pair combined for just 16 carries — 11 in the first half — for 59 yards. McGuire said Tech can't move away from running the ball again Saturday. Safety Jayden Hill (17 tackles) and linebacker Jordan Brown (15) lead a North Texas defense that is allowing just 3.4 yards per carry.

Advantage: North Texas

More: Texas Tech football loses starting lineman for the year, Tahj Brooks questionable for UNT

When North Texas football runs the ball

Running isn't really a focal point of the UNT attack. Ikaika Ragsdale's team-leading 22 carries have produced just 58 yards. Damashja Harris is the big-gainer, racking up 171 yards on just 16 carries this season, good for a 10.7-yard average. A name to watch is Minnesota transfer Zach Evans, who will make his season debut against the Red Raiders. Quarterback Chandler Morris could become a bigger running factor this week after Tech was shredded by Washington State QB John Mateer with 197 yards rushing. The Cougars had 301 yards on the ground, averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Linebackers Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts will need to help correct this.

Advantage: North Texas

When Texas Tech football passes

Behren Morton has been one of the nation's most productive quarterbacks, ranking fourth with 701 yards passing. How those yards have come have been a bit mixed. Against ACU, Morton showed off his healthy throwing shoulder by heaving the ball down the field. Against a Washington State defense throwing blitz after blitz his way, Morton was constantly under pressure, failing to complete a pass more than two yards beyond the line of scrimmage until the fourth quarter. Wide receiver Josh Kelly has a nation-leading 19 catches for 251 yards. UNT is surrendering 306 yards passing per game, so Morton should be able to get some quality yardage this week as well.

Advantage: Texas Tech

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When North Texas football passes

This is where things become lopsided. UNT's Chandler Morris' 737 yards passing rank second in the nation and he's thrown for seven touchdowns combined against South Alabama and Stephen F. Austin. Though he has plenty of experience against Big 12 teams, spending the previous three years at TCU, Morris didn't play against Texas Tech last season. Spreading the ball around, Morris' top targets have been Damon Ward Jr. (13 catches, 246 yards, 2 TDs) and DT Sheffield (13 catches, 148 yards, 3 TDs). In the national rankings, Texas Tech is 129th in scoring defense and 128th in passing defense and total defense out of a possible 133.

Advantage: North Texas

Texas Tech vs. North Texas: The specialists

Not much has been decided for Texas Tech in terms of a kicker. Gino Garcia connected on Tech's lone field-goal attempt against Washington State and handled the lone point-after attempts. Jack Burgess recovered nicely after shanking his first punt against Wazzu, sending his next two for 59 and 43 yards. Sawyer Evans averages 39.6 yards per punt for UNT while Kali Nguma is 1-for-2 on his field goal attempts.

Advantage: Texas Tech

Score prediction: North Texas 40, Texas Tech 30

Bottom line: Until the Red Raiders show some consistency, especially on defense, it's hard to see them coming out on top in many games. UNT has the offensive attack to make it another long day in the Jones for Tech fans.

This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Texas Tech football vs. North Texas: scouting report, predictions