LEXINGTON — Setting any mark — single game, single season, career — at Kentucky isn't an easy task.

The Wildcats, after all, are the nation's all-time winningest program. They boast more NCAA Tournament appearances (now up to 61 after earning a berth this season) than any other school. And no program has sent more players to the professional level.

Yet as UK prepares to begin March Madness — it's the 3-seed in the South Region, squaring off with 14-seed Oakland in Pittsburgh on Thursday — and renews its pursuit of another Final Four and national championship, numerous program and John Calipari-era records are in danger of falling this season.

Here's a breakdown of those records — and the likelihood they'll be broken:

Single season, individual record

3-point percentage

Record holder: Cameron Mills; 53.2% (42 for 79) in 1996-97

Player threatening to break it: Reed Sheppard; 52.5% (74 of 141) through 32 games in 2023-24

Likelihood the record falls: 40%.

Sheppard, the beloved in-state star from London and son of a pair of UK basketball greats, is on the precipice of being the most accurate 3-point shooter in the Wildcats' annals. His effort this season puts him in third place for a single campaign and is less than a percentage point behind Mills' mark. Sheppard doesn't have much margin for error, though. The pressure on each shot ratchets up now that the NCAA Tournament has arrived. And defenses are well aware of his marksmanship.

We predict he'll come up just short of Mills' single-season record. But if Sheppard indeed leaves Lexington after one season — he recently was projected as the No. 1 overall pick in this year's NBA draft by The Ringer — he'll likely shatter Kentucky's career record for 3-point percentage. His current clip is 5 percentage points higher than second-place Doron Lamb at 47.5.

Steals

Record holder: Rajon Rondo; 87 steals in 2004-05

Player threatening to break it: Reed Sheppard; 80 steals (through 32 games in 2023-24)

Likelihood the record falls: 80%.

To put into perspective how good Sheppard has been at swiping the ball from opposing players this season, he has more five-steal games (five) than outings with no steals (three). At his current rate of 2.5 steals per game, he'd break Rondo's record in the Sweet 16. It's a good bet this mark will be rewritten.

Single season, team record

Total points scored

Record holder: 1996-97 Wildcats; 3,325 points (in 40 games)

2023-24 team's points: 2,862 (in 32 games)

Likelihood the record falls: 30%.

This season's team becoming the highest-scoring in program history rests upon how far it advances in the Big Dance. It trails the 1996-97 squad by 463 points.

Here's how many points it would need, per game, to break the mark during the NCAA Tournament:

• In four games (requires reaching Elite Eight): 115.6 points per outing;

• In five games (requires reaching Final Four): 92.6 points per outing;

• In six games (requires reaching national title contest): 77.2 points per outing.

Even as historically good as the 2023-24 team has been offensively, averaging 115.6 per game in four games is an outlandish expectation. Averaging 92.6? Not out of the realm of possibility. Averaging 77.2? That's nearly a guarantee given that it has scored fewer than 77 in just six games this season.

So rewriting this record hinges upon returning to the Final Four for the first time since 2015. That's why setting this mark has been given such low odds.

3-point field goals

Record holder: 1992-93 Wildcats; 340 makes (in 34 games)

2023-24 team's makes: 318 (through 32 games)

Likelihood the record falls: 85%.

Much like many other records in danger of being eclipsed, setting the program's single-season record for 3-point makes depends on how UK fares in the NCAA Tournament. It averages a shade fewer than 10 3-pointers per game. A Sweet 16 appearance should give the 2023-24 Wildcats this piece of history.

3-point percentage

Record holder: 1995-96 Wildcats; 39.7% (266 for 670)

2023-24 team's percentage: 41.2 (318 of 772)

Likelihood the record falls: 100%.

Here's why this record is a lock to be broken: This season's team can miss its next 31 (!!!) 3-point attempts without another make and still be ahead of the 1995-96 team's pace.

Free-throw percentage

Record holder: 2019-20 Wildcats; 79.7% (560 for 703)

2023-24 team's percentage: 77.3 (486 of 629)

Likelihood the record falls: 35%.

To surpass the 2019-20 team — which didn't have a chance to accumulate more numbers because the coronavirus pandemic canceled the NCAA Tournament that year — will require multiple free-throw performances above 80%. Given the strain that comes with tense March Madness games, that's a big ask.

Single season, John Calipari-era record (first season was 2009-10)

Points per game, team

Record holder: 2016-17 Wildcats; 84.9 points per game

2023-24 team's average: 89.4 points per game

Likelihood the record falls: 100%.

UK could score zero points in a loss to Oakland on Thursday and it would still set this record. (Its average for the season would drop to 86.7.)

The more interesting question: Can this become only the sixth team in program history to average 90 points per game? This is the highest-scoring Kentucky team of the millennium. And the only UK squad in the past 40 years to average more is the 1995-96 national championship team (91.4).

Points per game, opponent

Record holder: 2016-17 Wildcats; 71.5 points per game

2023-24 team's average: 79.7 points per game

Likelihood the record falls: 100%.

UK could hold its first three NCAA Tournament foes scoreless and still not boast a better points-allowed mark than the 2016-17 squad. (Its average for the 2023-24 season would be 72.9.)

The more interesting question: Will this become just the fourth team in program history to give up at least 80 points per game? The last time a Kentucky defense was this porous was 1989-90, when it set an unwanted record of 87.9 points per game as it dealt with NCAA sanctions stemming from the end of the Eddie Sutton era.

Opponents have done plenty of damage from distance this season: UK has given up 270 triples, fourth most in a campaign (and just 18 from setting a record).

Field goal percentage, team

Record holder: 2011-12 Wildcats; 48.8% (1,096 for 2,248)

2023-24 team's percentage: 49.7 (1,029 of 2,071)

Likelihood the record falls: 99%.

The 2023-24 Wildcats would have to miss their next 40 shots (without another bucket) before they'd fall below the national-title winning 2011-12 crew. So consider this record as good as broken.

Points per game by an individual

Record holder: Jamal Murray; 20.0 points per game (720 points in 36 games) in 2015-16

Player threatening to break it: Antonio Reeves; 20.0 points per game (640 points through 32 games) in 2023-24

Likelihood the record falls: 55%.

It's ironic that Reeves is on the same pace as Murray was eight years ago. The only reason this percentage isn't higher: The Wildcats have so many weapons offensively, it's no guarantee Reeves will exceed the 20-point mark often enough in the Big Dance to usurp Murray as the best per-game scorer of Calipari's tenure.

If Reeves only ends up matching Murray and finishes this season at precisely 20 points per game, he'll still make a bit of history. He'd join Murray as only the second player under Calipari to average at least 20 points per outing and just the third Wildcat this century (Jodie Meeks; 23.7 in 2008-09) to achieve the feat.

More: Kentucky basketball vs Oakland prediction: Who has edge in NCAA Tournament Round of 64?

Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky basketball: Program records could fall at NCAA Tournament