LEXINGTON — Deep runs in the NCAA Tournament once came as easy as breathing for Kentucky basketball under coach John Calipari. In his debut season in 2009-10, UK advanced to the Elite Eight. Then, the Wildcats reached the Final Four four times in the next five seasons.

That once seemingly effortless task of being among the last four teams standing has become a strenuous endeavor for Calipari and his program. The Wildcats haven't had a spot in the Final Four since 2015. Even more frustrating for Kentucky's fan base: The last time its beloved blue-and-white team made it out of the opening weekend of the tournament was 2019.

The 2023-24 Wildcats, among the youngest squads in the nation, have shown the capacity for greatness. And susceptible to vexing losses.

How will Kentucky fare once March Madness tips off later this week, when it will begin play as the 3-seed in the South Region, facing Oakland in the first round?

Here are two reasons why Kentucky can make the Final Four, two reasons why it can't and our prediction:

2 reasons Kentucky basketball can make Final Four

Historically great offense

Prior to this season, the highest-scoring team in the Calipari era was the 2016-17 edition, which averaged 84.9 points per game. This season's team will surpass that. With plenty of room to spare.

UK enters the NCAA Tournament averaging 89.4 points per contest, which ranks second in Division I (Alabama, 90.8). While the Crimson Tide might have a slight upper hand in that statistical department, the Wildcats proved who the superior offensive powerhouse was last month, when the teams met at Rupp Arena: UK annihilated Alabama, 117-95, in a game Kentucky led by as many as 37 points.

The numbers at a glance:

• The Wildcats have reached the century mark on six occasions this season, including 118 versus Marshall, marking the most they've scored in a game during Calipari's tenure.

• Kentucky has scored 90 or more 17 times — a figure that represents more than half of its 32 games to this point.

• UK only has failed to reach 80 points in six outings this season.

An offense as electric as Kentucky's gives the team a chance to win any game. And this unit might just be good enough to deliver the Wildcats their first national championship in a dozen years.

Beating the country's best

UK is 6-7 in Quad 1 games — given the quality of opponent, and location (road wins count more than home or neutral-site affairs, they're considered the toughest-to-win contests on a team's schedule — this season. While other teams have more Quad 1 triumphs (Houston leads the country with 16, for instance), no school has more upper-echelon wins than Kentucky.

The Wildcats are the only team in the nation with four victories over foes in the top 10 of the NET rankings: Alabama, Auburn, North Carolina and Tennessee. That quartet represents the types of teams Kentucky likely will have to topple to exorcise its demons and return to the Final Four once more.

The Wildcats have showcased an ability to do just that — multiple times — this season.

2 reasons Kentucky basketball can’t make Final Four

Historically porous defense

As explosive as Kentucky's offense has been, its defense has been every bit as historic. For the wrong reasons. While this will be the highest-scoring team Calipari has fielded in Lexington, it also will be his most lackluster defense. UK gives up 79.7 points a game, which is outside the top 300 nationally (of 351 Division I teams whose stats are counted). That figure obliterates the previous-worst effort by a Calipari-led UK squad, which also was the 2016-17 group, which allowed 71.5 points per game.

Prior to this season, it had been more than three decades since an SEC opponent hung a hundred points on UK at Rupp Arena; that's happened twice this season (Tennessee and Arkansas). Aside from those two games, Kentucky has permitted 90-plus points five other times. UK's record in those seven instances? 3-4.

Put another way, the Wildcats have given up 90 or more points as many times (seven) as they've kept foes below 70 (seven). Granted, UK has had some stout defensive performances this season, most notably in its road victories over Auburn and Tennessee.

Yet it hasn't happened nearly enough to stamp Kentucky a true national title contender.

To hang their ninth national title banner in the rafters at Rupp, the Wildcats will have to quash decades of evidence to the contrary: Per KenPom.com, only one champion since 2002 ended the season ranked outside the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions). That was Baylor in 2021. The Bears finished 22nd in adjusted defensive efficiency that season.

Kentucky enters the NCAA Tournament tied for 107th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Its lack of consistency on defense is a recipe for falling short of the Final Four yet again.

Youth not an asset in Big Dance

Despite all the success veteran-laden teams have enjoyed during March the past decade, Calipari zigged where others zagged heading into this season. Eschewing mining the transfer portal for upperclassmen, he went back to an old formula — one that paid handsome dividends earlier in his tenure — by stockpiling as many talented freshmen as possible. That decision wrought the country's top-ranked recruiting class.

Whether Calipari's roll of the dice pays off remains to be seen. Since a freshman-reliant Duke team captured the national title in 2015, just four freshmen have started on eventual national championship squads: Alex Karaban (UConn ’23), Kihei Clark (Virginia ‘19), Omari Spellman (Villanova ‘18) and Jalen Brunson (Villanova ’16).

Prediction for how far Kentucky basketball will advance in NCAA Tournament

Kentucky has shown it can score on anyone. That should be enough to punch a ticket to Dallas. If seedings hold, UK also should be able to move past Marquette in the Sweet 16.

The problem for the Wildcats is if it reaches the Elite Eight and has to square off with the region's top seed, Houston. Kentucky hasn't faced any defense as stingy as what Houston trots onto the floor.

The Cougars are tied for first nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (87.1, alongside Big 12 compatriot Iowa State). Houston also leads Division I in scoring defense (57.0), field goal percentage defense (37.9) and turnover margin (7.1).

Kentucky will give Houston everything it wants.

And the Wildcats will lose an Elite Eight heartbreaker — deep in the heart of Texas — to the Cougars, 74-72, as Rob Dillingham's desperation 3 clanks off the rim as time expires.

Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky in Final Four in March Madness predictions 2024. Here’s why