Notre Dame football vs. Virginia: keys, predictions for Irish's home finale
SOUTH BEND — There is one football game left to be played inside Notre Dame Stadium this year — for now.
While the No. 8 Fighting Irish (8-1) could be hosting a College Football Playoff first round game in a month’s time, they have to get to that point first. The next step on the journey will be taken Saturday afternoon, when Virginia (5-4) comes to town for Senior Day (3:30 p.m., NBC).
The Cavaliers enter with some momentum following a 24-19 win over then-No. 23 Pittsburgh last week. Meanwhile, Notre Dame crushed struggling Florida State, 52-3, in the only primetime home game of the regular season.
Here’s three keys for an Irish victory this week, plus South Bend Tribune staff predictions for the contest.
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Take advantage of middling Virginia offense
Not much jumps off the page when looking at the Cavaliers’ offense. Quarterback Anthony Colandrea has dual-threat capabilities, throwing for 1,848 yards and rushing for 259. His 12 passing touchdowns, though, have been offset by eight interceptions.
No player has more than 500 rushing yards for Virginia. Malachi Fields has been Colandrea’s favorite target in the passing game, recording 45 receptions for 665 yards and four touchdowns — more than half the yards of anyone else on the Cavalier roster.
It could be tough sledding throwing the ball for Virginia, however, given Notre Dame has 12 interceptions and allows the second-fewest pass yards in the country at 148.6 yards per game on average. Only one Irish opponent has crossed the 20-point threshold as well, making them one of the top units among FBS schools.
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Riley Leonard makes plays throwing the ball
It sounds like a broken record at this point, but the Irish are once again facing a poor passing defense in Virginia. The Cavaliers rank 118th out of 134 teams in passing yards allowed, surrendering 262.9 on average.
Irish quarterback Riley Leonard is coming off a mixed performance against Florida State. While his 14-for-27 passing was the lowest completion percentage of the season, the 215 yards was the second most he’s had through nine games. If he had reached his 66.4% yearlong completion percentage mark, Leonard would have had a shot at 300 passing yards.
At this point, the Irish offense is what it is, using a run-based game to average more than 38 points per contest. Leonard doesn’t have to be a superhero throwing the ball, but he needs to make enough plays to keep defenses honest.
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Avoid the letdown spot
This also sounds like a broken record, but Notre Dame has had a handful of games where, in theory, they should win comfortably ahead of a tougher game the next week.
They had slow starts against Miami (Ohio) and Stanford in similar spots, actually trailing in both contests before pulling away for 28-3 and 49-7 wins, respectively.
With a showdown against No. 24 Army (9-0) looming, the Irish need to make sure they take care of Virginia first before thinking about the Black Knights.
South Bend Tribune staff predictions for Game 10 against Virginia
MIKE BERARDINO: Welcome back, Chris Tyree. Don’t take it personally. Notre Dame 38, Virginia 10.
TOM NOIE: There's a method to this week's prediction madness. In its last five Senior Day games (like Saturday will be), Notre Dame has outscored its opponent by an average of 45.8 points to 7. Let's round down here. Notre Dame 45, Virginia 7.
AUSTIN HOUGH: Maybe another slow start is coming, but the Irish do enough to make the final score look like the result was never in doubt. Notre Dame 31, Virginia 6.
This article originally appeared on South Bend Tribune: Notre Dame football vs. Virginia: Predictions for Irish home finale