Yahoo fantasy football analyst Scott Pianowski reveals his weekly NFL betting ticket in his Throwing Darts column. Check out where he's putting his jelly beans for Week 16. All lines courtesy of our friends at BetMGM.

We’re coming off an ordinary 2-2-1 week, though the seasonal record sits at a lovely 46-25-4 ATS. None of this changes the ethos and the approach, of course. Keep the head down, keep grinding.

Steelers -2.5 vs. Raiders

I locked in at the -2.5 number earlier in the week; it’s down to -1.5 now. You take the better number, but I’ll obviously grade at the higher one. Steelers will empty the emotional tank as the franchise and city salute the late Franco Harris. Home field doesn’t matter everywhere in the NFL these days, but this is one city where it’s still potent. Derek Carr does not have a good track record in cold weather.

Browns -3 vs. Saints

I don’t have a lot of faith in either club, but give me the cold-weather home team over the traveling dome team from the south. Cleveland has capable running backs, adding up to the No. 8 rushing game in DVOA. The Saints rank 23rd in that stat. Neither team is great at stopping the run (New Orleans is better), though the gap between the defenses is much smaller than the margins on offense. Cleveland takes the rock fight.

Titans -3.5 vs. Texans

Houston has been plucky in recent weeks, and easily could have won its last three games. Return touchdowns were the problem against Cleveland, then it was a rotten endgame in Dallas. But last week’s overtime loss to Kansas City was misleading — the Chiefs outgained the Texans by a 502-219 tally — and I suspect Derrick Henry’s going to trample the Houston defense for three hours. It’s a correction week.

Falcons +7 at Ravens

Atlanta is a team with problems, but nothing about the current Ravens team suggests Baltimore should be spotting a touchdown to anyone. The Falcons will try to run the ball and shorten the game, which is welcome for an underdog catching seven points. Baltimore failed to address its wide receiver problem in the offseason and is paying for it now.

Patriots +3.5 vs. Bengals

Sometimes it’s as simple as taking a competitive team after an embarrassing loss. New England had ups and downs in the defeat at Las Vegas, but obviously, the way that game ended was an all-timer. Bill Belichick will have his team’s attention this week.

Cincinnati rallied to win at Tampa Bay but that was more about the Buccaneers imploding — the Bengals had just 237 yards of offense. New England’s defense is still respectable, so let’s ride with a home underdog.

Last Week: 2-2-1

Season: 46-25-4

Pianow's historical Throwing Darts record (only two losing seasons in 13 years) and 2022 weekly results are listed here.

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