What Brett Cecil's huge contract could mean for other top free-agent relievers
Some interesting dominoes are already starting to fall during Hot Stove season, and they’re setting the tone for what could be an expensive winter.
According to Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan, the St. Louis Cardinals joined the fray on Saturday, agreeing to a four-year contract with left-handed reliever Brett Cecil. The deal includes a full no-trade clause and is worth $30.5M, which is a hefty pay day for a likely set up man.
Cecil, 30, is coming off a good but not great 2016 season, having posted a 3.93 ERA over 36 2/3 innings. He was temporarily slowed by a torn lat muscle, which limited him to two innings between May and June. He did manage to finish strong, compiling a 2.08 ERA from Aug. 1 on, while holding opponents to a .175 batting average. He’d also built a reputation as a dependable late-inning reliever in the three seasons prior, where he combined to post a 2.67 ERA and 11.5 strikeouts per nine.
He’s a very good reliever, but there’s already a lot of talk about how much this contract will impact the free agent market going forward for relief pitchers.
The Brett Cecil market escalated quickly. Teams realized three years wasn't gonna get it done, and St. Louis coveted him enough to go four.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 19, 2016
Already have heard from multiple executives and agents who think Brett Cecil's four-year, $30.5M deal with St. Louis is a market changer.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 19, 2016
For a little more perspective, Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors projected Cecil to land a three-year deal worth $18M. Obviously, such projections are nearly impossible to make in baseball’s ever-changing landscape. But it gives an idea of perceived value going into the offseason versus what the market ultimately decides.
I doubt Cecil will be worth $30.5 mil over the life of his contract, but he's worth $7.5 mil in a healthy season.
— Matthew Pouliot (@matthewpouliot) November 19, 2016
With Trevor Rosenthal faltering in 2016 and Zach Duke lost for the 2017 season following Tommy John surgery, it certainly feels worth it to St. Louis. The bullpen needed some reinforcements, and Cecil provides Mike Matheny with a quality option who can fill a variety of roles in the late innings.
As for the bigger picture, Cecil’s fourth year truly feels like a game changer in this market, and it could bode very well for coveted closers like Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, who are expected to pursue five-year deals worth north of $80M. Though not directly linked, it’s possible Cecil’s deal will help cement those relievers receiving five years while pushing the money closer to $100M.
Even a second-tier closer like Mark Melancon and the top set up men available, such as Daniel Hudson, Brad Ziegler and Joe Blanton, should have smiles on their faces. Not only is one main competitor off the board, but he set the bar high, meaning this could be a fruitful winter for each and all.
RP are notoriously volatile. Combine lack of FA inventory with lots of $ to spend and many RP options, and RP gonna cash in this offseason.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 19, 2016
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Mark Townsend is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at bigleaguestew@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!