NBA Fact or Fiction: LeBron James scoring 40,000 points is more impressive than you think
Each week during the 2023-24 NBA season, we will take a deeper dive into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an attempt to determine whether the trends are based more in fact or fiction moving forward.
[Last week: Is the NBA All-Star Game fixable?]
This week's topic: In the NBA's scoring era, 40,000 points isn't that much, is it?
We have broached the unbreakability of LeBron James' scoring record here before, and now that he has become the first player ever to score 40,000 points in his career — the founder of the 40,000-10,000-10,000 club — we will remind you that, yes, this standard will in all likelihood be met and surpassed at some point, even if that day comes long after we're gone. Records are made to be broken and all that.
But we are here today to put 40,000 into perspective. Just how difficult will it be for someone to catch LeBron?
Consider these fun facts:
At Giannis Antetokounmpo's current free-throw rate of 65.8%, it would take him — using the allotted 10 seconds for each freebie — a full week straight without rest at the charity stripe to reach 40,000 points.
Stephen Curry would have to repeat his performance against Sabrina Ionescu 1,380 times — over a span of 27 hours, without rest, without slowing down — to reach 40,000 points in a 3-point contest.
Or this mind-bending data:
Everyone else but Anthony Davis on the Lakers has combined to score 40,138 points in their careers.
Every team in the NBA has combined to score 35,553 points this season. LeBron passed that in 2021.
Teams are scoring an average of 115.3 points per game this season — the most in more than 50 years — so it would take an entire franchise four-and-a-quarter seasons to score 40,000 points.
Since Nov. 25, 2019, when Rajon Rondo and Dwight Howard came off the bench in Los Angeles, the Lakers as a team have scored 40,000 points. Before we knew what COVID-19 was.
Oh, we can go on. LeBron James' 40,000 points are more than the combined totals of these star duos:
Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo: 38,770
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George: 31,082
Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving: 27,524
Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo: 21,689
Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray: 21,390
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown: 20,958
Think of all that Tatum and Brown have accomplished over the past eight seasons, including eight All-Star bids between them. Double it, and they might catch James — if he doesn't push his total north of 45,000.
Remember, ESPN's Brian Windhorst suggested this week, "I think LeBron is angling to sign a multiyear deal in the offseason with the Lakers that will be nine figures," something like $180 million over three more years. Since James has never scored fewer than 1,500 points in an 82-game season, 45,000 is not unachievable.
So. Many. Points. Larry Bird and Charles Barkley combined to score 45,548 points in their careers.
Future Hall of Famers Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green have built a dynasty together over the past decade, winning four championships in six trips to the NBA Finals and 410 regular-season games between them — they have combined to score 45,222 points. They did not hit 40,000 until last season.
Want more? If the following players maintain their current career pace, they will reach 40,000 points in ...
Victor Wembanyama: 2051, at the age of 47.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 2045, at the age of 46.
Stephen Curry: 2034, at the age of 46.
Devin Booker: 2040, at the age of 43.
Jayson Tatum: 2040, at the age of 42.
Kevin Durant: 2031, at the age of 42.
Anthony Edwards: 2043, at the age of 41.
Luka Dončić: 2039, at the age of 40.
Dončić could do it! Or could he? He walked into the NBA averaging 21.2 points per game, increased that to a league-leading 34.4 points a game this season (his sixth), when he surpassed 10,000 career points. He'll just have to repeat his career three more times — unless a 55-year-old LeBron is also still playing in 2039.
Then again, when James set the all-time scoring record, Dončić was asked if anyone could catch the King. He said, "No way in hell. ... It's always a possibility, but it's going to be really tough. You've got to have a guy that plays for 20 years in that shape, how he holds up his body. I'm just saying: Without basketball skill, it's very hard to hold that body. If you're saying me, there's no way, because I'm not playing that much."
As Dončić said, "It's always a possibility." James attempted three 3-pointers a night as a rookie and did not make two per game until the 2018-19 season, when he was 34 years old. By contrast, Dončić attempted seven 3s a night as a rookie and is making roughly four per game this season. Someone will take 10 a night as a rookie and make seven per game at some point in his career. And what if the NBA adds a 4-pointer?
Who will do it? That's the question. Maybe LeBron James IV. Maybe the grandchildren of Curry and Ionescu will meet, spawn some flame-throwing god, and he will set the new NBA scoring standard. Maybe a robot.
Seriously, build a cyborg that scores 30 points a night. Program it to play 82 games a season, and it'll hit 40,000 points by its 17th season. Except, smartphones stop working after a few years, and they don't run the risk of getting pummeled by Draymond Green. Of course, who's to say James isn't already that cyborg.
Determination: Fiction. It turns out 40,000 points is actually quite a bit. Congratulations, LeBron James.
