Most essential Colts, No. 2: Can Jonathan Taylor take run game to historic heights again?
In a salary-cap league like the NFL, finding building blocks is essential. As teams churn and burn the roster through the draft and bargain signings in free agency, it helps to find the players who are either a cut above the rest or can perform a task few others can. They relieve the pressure on everyone.
Over the next few weeks, we'll be ranking the 15 most essential players to the Colts' success in 2024. It's a subjective process, weighing factors such as ability, positional value within a scheme, age, leadership and durability.
To make it simpler, we're asking the following two questions about these players:
1. How difficult would he be to replace for more than a month?
2. What does the Colts' 2024 ceiling become if this player hits his?
With the return of Anthony Richardson from shoulder surgery, the Colts’ outlook is on the future but also on the present after a 9-8 season fell a fourth-down conversion short of winning the AFC South. This list will primarily look at 2024 value, but certain players' development for the long-term can help to break ties along the way.
Here's the list so far:
3. Michael Pittman Jr., wide receiver
4. Bernhard Raimann, offensive tackle
5. Braden Smith, offensive tackle
6. DeForest Buckner, defensive tackle
9. Kenny Moore II, nickel cornerback
12. Laiatu Latu, defensive end
14. Zaire Franklin, linebacker
Just missed: Dayo Odeyingbo, Ryan Kelly, Jaylon Jones
Today, we look at No. 2, Jonathan Taylor.
Position: Running back
Age: 25
Experience: 5th season
2023 stats: 169 carries, 741 yards and 7 TDs on 4.4 yards per carry, plus 19 catches for 153 yards and 1 TD, with 7 starts in 10 games.
Last year's rank: No. 2
Why he's here: Last year, every level of Taylor's value in this sport came into question.
It was a contract year, and he expected an extension like successful Colts draft picks receive, but it didn't happen so easily. As the running back market froze, Taylor entered a nasty stand-off with the Colts that dragged out months.
But eventually, Taylor received a three-year, $42 million extension in order to make his return to the team in Week 7. The $14 million average annual value now ranks third among all running backs.
GO DEEPER: How Jonathan Taylor's historic rift with the Colts came to be
With 5.0 career yards per carry, Taylor is a cut above at an otherwise replaceable position, but that was hard to see for much of his return. The much-anticipated combination with Anthony Richardson never happened, as Richardson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in that Week 7 game. Taylor needed weeks to regain football shape, and then he suffered a thumb injury that knocked him out for three games.
But finally, in the final two weeks of the season, the old Taylor made a return. Taylor ran a bell-cow-like 51 times and racked up 284 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders and Texans, winning one must-win game and carrying the Colts to within a 4th-and-1 of the other.
Taylor's 741 yards, seven touchdowns and 4.4 yards per carry seem pedestrian in an offense where Zack Moss nearly matched them. But Taylor never received the bump that Richardson's rushing threat offered other backs. He still hit a higher gear against the Texans than any other Colts running back has shown since Taylor did it against the Texans in Week 1 of the 2022 season.
It's possible that Taylor's best season is behind him, as running backs diminish over time, and it's been three seasons since he ran for 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns to win the NFL rushing title. But at age 25 and coming off a low-workload season, the real story is that he just needs to avoid playing hurt or behind a disastrous offensive line to hit a tremendously high gear.
Health is always at risk for high-volume runners, and that lowers Taylor's floor compared to the players right behind him on this list. But his ceiling in volume and explosiveness is something no other player in this offense has ever come close to matching. The depth behind him, with Moss departed to Cincinnati, is also as questionable as any spot on the offense. Taylor missing time could shift too much of the rushing attempts to Richardson, which will increase the injury risk the Colts are desperate to avoid.
If the Colts are going to level up to the AFC's monster offenses of the Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals, Bills and Dolphins, their route is through a running game with Taylor and Richardson that is among the most explosive in history. That is a realistic ceiling when supported by a strong offensive line and Shane Steichen's creative play designs.
It'll take health from Taylor and from his backfield mate, which is why there's only one person topping the All-Pro running back on this list.
Contact Nate Atkins at natkins@indystar.com. Follow him on Twitter @NateAtkins_.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Most essential Colts, No. 2: Can Jonathan Taylor return to All-Pro?
