Most essential Colts No. 13: Can Josh Downs unlock a new side of Anthony Richardson?
In a salary-cap league like the NFL, finding building blocks is essential. As teams churn and burn the roster through the draft and bargain signings in free agency, it helps to find the players who are either a cut above the rest or can perform a task few others can. They relieve the pressure on everyone.
Over the next few weeks, we'll be ranking the 15 most essential players to the Colts' success in 2024. It's a subjective process, weighing factors such as ability, positional value within a scheme, age, leadership and durability.
To make it simpler, we're asking the following two questions about these players:
1. How difficult would he be to replace for more than a month?
2. What does the Colts' 2024 ceiling become if this player hits his?
With the return of Anthony Richardson from shoulder surgery, the Colts’ outlook is on the future but also on the present after a 9-8 season fell a fourth-down conversion short of winning the AFC South. This list will primarily look at 2024 value, but certain players' development for the long-term can help to break ties along the way.
14. Zaire Franklin, linebacker
Today, we continue with No. 13, Josh Downs.
Position: Wide receiver
Age: 22
Experience: 2nd season
2023 stats: 68 catches on 98 targets for 771 yards and 2 touchdowns with 9 starts in 17 games
Last year's rank: Did not make list
Why he's here: What was the ultimate draft outlier a year ago has become one of the safest bets on the Colts roster, even in just his second season.
Josh Downs is not what Chris Ballard and the Colts typically draft at wide receiver. They love measurables and catch radius, and a 5-foot-9, 171-pound player did not fit the bill in the slightest. He didn't fit many NFL teams' requirements, which is why he slid to the third round despite All-American production.
And a year later, he's looking like a steal.
Downs looked like a player from the moment he suited up at rookie minicamp a year ago. The son of former Falcons running back Gary Downs and the nephew of former Lions Pro Bowl cornerback Dre' Bly has one of the most natural sets of route running and hands skills you'll see. He isn't built physically for the outside, but in the slot, he can be a high-volume player from the jump.
That's exactly what he was in a rookie season in which he caught 68 passes for 771 yards and two touchdowns. That is startling production for a Colts wide receiver not named Michael Pittman Jr. in the past five seasons. But Downs proved to be a solid No. 2 option, winning with quickness against man coverage and football IQ against zone and working interchangeably with two dramatically different quarterbacks in Anthony Richardson and Gardner Minshew. Doing that at 7.9 yards per target and playing 17 games in a high-volume role are no small feats for a rookie.
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Downs showed some down-the-field flashes with Richardson, and the hope is that the Colts can build on that this season. His long speed and ability to track a football will help, though his size and limitations to the slot role will likely limit just how high the ceiling can rise. That's why he's outside the top 10 on this list.
But the floor for Downs feels so high, and the Colts will need that from some passing target not named Pittman. Nobody else at receiver or tight end is as proven as he is, and he's only played one season.
Perhaps the ceiling for Downs will come in what he can do for Richardson. To create with Downs, Richardson must do the things he hasn't as a quarterback yet by playing with quick timing and precision to a lower catch radius in the middle of the field. Their connection was strong before Richardson got hurt last year, but it must sustain a full season and beyond to help Richardson to an outrageously high ceiling.
If Downs can do that, he'll break the top 10 on this list next year. For now, he's the ultimate floor in a passing game that needs one.
Contact Nate Atkins at natkins@indystar.com. Follow him on Twitter @NateAtkins_.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Most essential Colts No. 13: Josh Downs