Missouri football vs Alabama: Scouting report, score prediction in crucial Tigers-Tide game
The tension is high in Tuscaloosa.
Missouri football travels Saturday to Bryant-Denny Stadium for what may very well be a do-or-die matchup against Alabama — for both teams — in order to maintain a run to the College Football Playoff.
Mizzou (6-1, 2-1 SEC) released a lengthy availability report Wednesday night, headlined by a doubtful designation for starting quarterback Brady Cook. Missouri’s path to victory in Tuscaloosa likely narrows if Cook is inactive come Saturday.
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Alabama (5-2, 2-2) has faced some recent challenges in Kalen DeBoer’s first season since taking over from Nick Saban. The Tide have lost to Vanderbilt and Tennessee on the road and pulled out a narrow home win over South Carolina in their past three games.
Here is everything you need to know about Alabama before Mizzou plays in Bryant-Denny Stadium, including the Tide’s strengths and weaknesses and a score prediction:
Is Alabama starting QB Jalen Milroe in a slump?
Missouri has faced its fair share of mobile quarterbacks this season, from Boston College’s Thomas Castellanos to Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia.
Milroe fits the dual-threat billing. He was a 500-yard rusher last season. He already has 11 of Alabama’s 24 rushing touchdowns this season. This season, he’s averaging 246 passing yards with 13 touchdowns and six interceptions.
Those costly picks — three of which coming between losses to Tennessee and Vanderbilt — are where the focus in Tuscaloosa seems to have turned, but the Tide’s staff remain confident in QB1’s abilities.
“It's not like this is something you're chasing that you haven't done or shown, and so that's the message, not just to Jalen, but to the rest of the group,” Alabama offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan told reporters in Tuscaloosa this week. “Let's get back to playing the type of football we know we're capable of playing.”
There’s no one way to deal with Milroe, but Mizzou’s edge rushers showed its ability to get to the quarterback against Auburn. Milroe has taken 14 sacks this season. Missouri will likely need more of the same Saturday.
“I think the biggest key for us is we’ve got to figure out how to rush the passer,” Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz said Tuesday. “And, obviously, we can do that, but we can't create vertical rush lanes for (Milroe) to escape through. Once he gets his shoulders pointed downhill, he's got unbelievable speed. He's got great vision; really good thrower. So, he's the definition of a dual-threat quarterback.”
Where can Missouri football exploit Alabama’s defense?
The Tide will be without starting safety Keon Sabb on Saturday, per the Tide’s Wednesday night availability report.
There were injury concerns for three more players in Alabama’s secondary coming out of the Tennessee game, going by local press conference questions, but the Tide look like they’ll have most of them available.
But it is further up front that Alabama has shown a somewhat of an exploitable characteristic. The Tide rank 63rd in the FBS in rush defense, allowing 141.3 yards per game to opposition offense. Those numbers may be slightly skewed, as opponents have almost always upped their average of runs per game when playing the Tide.
Mizzou designated starting running back Nate Noel as “doubtful” for the game at Alabama, meaning it may have to rely on Marcus Carroll and Jamal Roberts to carry a bulk of the load.
Ryan Williams: ‘Is he 17?’
If you’ve heard Ryan Williams’ name, you probably know his age.
Williams — “Is he 17?” Drinkwitz quipped Tuesday — is off to an electric start in his Alabama career, with seven touchdowns and 92.7 receiving yards per game so far this season.
There’s a few reasons Williams should give Mizzou fans some cause for concern: Williams has touchdowns from 43, 55, 75 and 84 yards this season. Missouri’s coverage busts have been a serious, recurring issue this year, especially against mobile QBs as eyes get caught downfield. Mizzou cannot afford that with Williams on the field.
Alabama primarily has targeted Williams and junior Germie Bernard through seven games, with more than half of its receiving production coming from those two players.
“We’re gonna need blankets. We’re gonna have to cover them,” Drinkwitz said. “We're gonna have to do our jobs. I think (Missouri defensive coordinator Corey Batoon) obviously has a pretty good feel of mixing up coverages, and I thought we did a really good job of that on Saturday, but we cannot let the deep ball beat us. That's been an issue for us. We've given up way too many deep balls, deep shots.”
What went wrong in Alabama’s two losses?
Vanderbilt provided the road map.
In one of the biggest shocks in a college football season that hasn’t been short of them, the Commodores knocked off the Crimson Tide in Nashville. How’d they do it? Well, the ’Dores, above all else, dominated the time of possession.
Vanderbilt had the ball for more than 42 minutes against Alabama, running the ball 54 times between bullish quarterback Diego Pavia and a wide cast of running backs and methodically marching down the field. Pavia threw just 20 passes, but averaged 15.8 yards per completion.
Tennessee weathered the Tide on Rocky Top in a slightly different manner, turning Alabama over three times and capitalizing when the chunk-play opportunities arose.
One constant, however, was that the Vols rushed 43 times for 214 yards.
Wanna beat ’Bama? Establish the run.
Score prediction: Alabama 35, Missouri 27
This is highly dependent on the availability of Cook. If he can go, there’s a sense this MU team has some wind under its sails and a chance to give Alabama a scare. That’s reflected in our score prediction for the week. Cook hasn't given us much reason to believe he'll accept sitting out if there's a choice.
But ... if Cook is not available — and his “doubtful” designation on the week’s first availability report would suggest that's — this probably doesn’t end up looking all too close.
This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: Scouting report, score prediction for Missouri football at Alabama