Midway through the Big Ten, here are four thoughts on Ohio State's season
It’s been a grind to get to this point of the season for Ohio State. A 12-2 start with wins in two of their first three Big Ten games had the Buckeyes positioned to distance themselves from the disappointment that was a 16-19 season and a next-to-last finish in the league last year.
Then Ohio State’s hopes went to Indiana’s Assembly Hall on Jan. 6 and never returned. On a Saturday night, the Hoosiers turned 14 Ohio State turnovers into 22 points, the Buckeyes shot a dismal 36.2% from the floor and just 25.9% from 3 and Indiana prevailed, 71-65.
Now, Ohio State has dropped six of seven and is sitting 12th in the Big Ten after having played 10 league games. The Buckeyes went 2-6 in January and will split their final 10 Big Ten games at home and on the road.
“I don’t think right now we’re responding great to adversity, and I think we’ve got to get to handling the adversity of the game better,” coach Chris Holtmann said after Tuesday night’s 87-75 loss to No. 14 Illinois at Value City Arena. “Could some of what happened last year be impacting that? Maybe. We’ve got to get better at handling adversity of the game.”
Any hopes of returning to the NCAA Tournament after missing out last year are growing dimmer with each loss. Accordingly, the pressure is only growing on Holtmann, who has four years remaining on a contract extension signed in 2022.
Friday night, the Buckeyes will play at Iowa in search of a win that would check a lot of boxes. It would give Ohio State a second Quad 1 win, a category considered strongly by the NCAA Tournament’s selection committee. It would snap a three-game losing streak, Ohio State’s second of the year. It would mark Ohio State’s first road win since Jan. 1, 2023 – a stretch of 14 straight losses for the Buckeyes.
And at the midpoint of Big Ten play, it would also give the Buckeyes a glimmer of optimism that maybe this year will be better than the last. With a 13-8 overall record and a 3-7 mark in the Big Ten, here are four things about where Ohio State stands as it heads to Carver-Hawkeye Arena.
The defense is trending in the wrong direction
Ohio State entered 2024 looking like an improved defensive team. An overtime win against West Virginia on Dec. 30 moved the Buckeyes to 11-2 overall and had them sitting 54th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Ohio State was allowing teams to score 97.0 points per 100 possessions, a number that falls short of elite but was still marked improvement from the year prior. The 2022-23 Buckeyes allowed teams to score 101.6 points per 100 possessions, the 106th-best mark in the nation.
The Buckeyes had nearly halved that total heading into a Jan. 3 home game against Rutgers. Now, after a 2-6 January, Ohio State is ranked No. 120 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing 103.4 points per 100 possessions. Northwestern finished with an adjusted offensive efficiency mark of 135.2 on Jan. 27 and Illinois was just behind at 134.2 three days later, marking the seventh- and ninth-worst marks allowed by the Buckeyes in Big Ten play in the KenPom.com era that dates back to 1998-99.
Not into efficiency ratings? In league play, Ohio State is ninth in scoring defense (76.4 points allowed per game), 10th in defensive field-goal percentage (46.4%) and last in 3-point defense (42.0%).
Ohio State’s last five opponents have shot at least 41.2% from 3-point range and three of them have hit more than half of their shots from deep.
“We need to be nastier,” Holtmann said after the loss to the Illini. “We need to be much nastier. We need to play with more force.”
Ohio State’s last three opponents have all scored at least 80 points for the first time since the 1995-96 season. The Buckeyes won 92-87 at George Mason on Dec. 9, 1995, beat Seton Hall 105-96 at home on Dec. 16 and lost 83-70 at Tennessee-Chattanooga on Dec. 19.
Aside from Jamison Battle, poor shooting adding to defensive issues
The team’s struggles to get stops has coincided with a blisteringly cold shooting spell. Although the Buckeyes endured a 1-for-15 3-point effort in a win against UCLA on Dec. 16, they were still making 38.0% of their shots from deep when they went to Indiana on Jan. 6.
Seven games later, that number has plummeted to 33.9%. In losing six of seven games, Ohio State has shot 25.0% (36 for 144) from 3 while its opponents have gone 66 for 143 (46.2%) during the same stretch. The Buckeyes have taken one more 3-pointer during these seven games but have made 30 fewer, an average point differential from 3-point range of 12.9 per game.
It’s a credit to Jamison Battle that the Buckeyes are even shooting that well. He’s made half of those 36 3-pointers while shooting 43.9% (18 for 41), while his teammates have gone 18 for 103 (17.5%).
How does this Ohio State team compare statistically to last year’s team?
Although the Buckeyes are two wins ahead of last year’s pace, they are 3-7 in Big Ten play for a second consecutive season. At 11-10 overall, the 2023-24 Buckeyes averaged 76.6 points per game while shooting 46.6% from the floor and 38.2% from 3. Defensively, they were allowing 67.7 points as teams were hitting 41.1% of their shots and 30.2% of their 3-point attempts.
This year, Ohio State is scoring less, shooting worse from 3, allowing more points and playing overall worse defense than it was at this point last year. The Buckeyes are averaging 75.1 points, shooting 44.7% from the floor and 33.9% from 3-point range. Opponents are scoring an average of 69.1 points per game, shooting 42.9% from the field and 35.9% from 3.
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The freshmen aren’t contributing a whole lot
After heavily relying on four freshmen last year, the Buckeyes returned three of them and added some experience via the transfer portal. It added up to a young roster, but also one that wouldn’t be relying on its newcomers to carry a load like their predecessors had to assume in 2022-23.
Even with those lowered expectations, Ohio State’s freshman class has not provided much. Scotty Middleton’s defensive versatility has allowed him to carve out a role in what has been an eight-man rotation and he has averaged 16.6 minutes per game. Middleton was suspended for one game for a violation of team expectations and has scored only 13 points in his last five games to sit at 4.3 per game while shooting 37.5% (15 for 40) from 3.
Forward Devin Royal was Ohio’s Mr. Basketball as a senior at Pickerington Central but has been a healthy, unused substitute in three games this season. He’s averaging 7.5 minutes per appearance while scoring 2.9 points per game but has shown flashes of offensive potential: Royal had 7 points in seven minutes against Illinois, 8 points in five minutes against Penn State and 7 points in seven minutes against Michigan. He’s averaged 5.2 points per game in his last five games.
Otherwise, first-year guard Taison Chatman and center Austin Parks have been relegated to the end of the bench after being slowed during the preseason with injuries. Chatman has been a healthy, unused substitute in three of the last six games and has not scored a point this season. Parks has not appeared in nine straight games and is yet to make his Big Ten debut.
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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: 4 thoughts on Ohio State at Big Ten's midpoint: Shooting looms large
