As the Buckeyes head to Northwestern, what does Ohio State's resume look like?
There are two truths about this Ohio State men’s basketball season that seem completely at odds with each other.
Having lost four of their last five games, the Buckeyes are on the outside of the NCAA Tournament picture and seemingly headed in the wrong direction. At the same time, at 13-6 overall and 3-5 in the Big Ten, Ohio State still has more than enough opportunities to play itself back onto the right side of the bubble.
The trick will be actually taking advantage of the chances that lie ahead.
“It can be tiring and frustrating, but you’ve got to stay the course and trust that the work will eventually show and don’t hold your head down,” Zed Key, a fourth-year center and the team’s longest-tenured player, told The Dispatch. “It’s a long season, still. We’ve still got a lot of games left. Just keep grinding.”
Key spoke in the immediate vicinity of the visitors’ locker room inside Pinnacle Bank Arena on Tuesday night. Roughly 20 minutes earlier, Ohio State had taken its most lopsided loss of the season, this one an 83-69 defeat to Nebraska. It marked the 13th straight road loss for the Buckeyes and, unlike in losses at Penn State, Indiana and Michigan earlier this year, Ohio State trailed for the entire second half in this one as the Cornhuskers buried the visitors.
It felt different than the other losses this year, and afterward coach Chris Holtmann characterized his team as having been soft in the game and unable to respond when adversity hit. As far as losses go, this was a first for this year’s team and not exactly a good sign for what lies ahead.
What gives Key credit that this team will figure it out before it’s too late?
“Just knowing my teammates,” he said. “I’ve been in this program for so long. I’ve seen it all. I’m not really worried about it. I’m just continuing to be a leader, lead these young guys and eventually we’ll come out with a ‘W’ because we work hard every day.”
Here’s where the Buckeyes stand as they prepare for Saturday’s road date with Northwestern.
Ohio State is not really on the NCAA Tournament bubble
Given how the last three weeks have gone, this probably isn’t much of a surprise. Ohio State was 12-2 overall and 2-1 in Big Ten play after a Jan. 3 home win against Rutgers but has since taken losses to Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska with just a home win against Penn State sprinkled in between.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi does not have the Buckeyes even among his “next four out.” Of the 81 brackets compiled at bracketmatrix.com, only six currently have Ohio State included as an NCAA Tournament participant.
Lunardi is projecting the Big Ten to put six teams into the tournament this year.
What does Ohio State’s resume look like?
The best thing going for the Buckeyes is that they don’t have any losses outside of the first two quadrants in the NCAA’s NET rankings. The system, which is used to sort resumes and help the selection committee seed the NCAA Tournament, can especially punish teams for bad losses. Ohio State doesn’t have any of those, but it’s in search of quality wins.
The loss at Nebraska dropped Ohio State 13 spots in the NCAA’s NET rankings. The Buckeyes walked into Pinnacle Bank Arena ranked No. 46 nationally and woke up back home Wednesday morning at No. 59 thanks to what was classified as a Quad 2 loss but is now a Quad 1 loss after the Cornhuskers climbed.
As of Thursday, twelve of Ohio State’s 13 wins were outside of the first two quadrants. The Buckeyes are 1-2 in Quad 1, 0-4 in Quad 2, 7-0 in Quad 3 and 5-0 in Quad 4. They are 4-0 in neutral-site games, 0-4 on the road and 9-2 at home.
Ohio State is also No. 37 at BartTorvik.com, No. 42 at EvanMiya.com, No. 50 at KenPom.com and No. 59 at Haslametrics.com
Did Ohio State schedule aggressively enough?
At his first press conference, newly hired Ohio State athletic director Ross Bjork was briefly asked about the SEC’s increased investment in men’s college basketball in recent years. With more dollars allocated to facilities and coaches, the league has rated more highly than the Big Ten in two of the last three seasons and has generally increased its overall level of play.
Bjork said the biggest difference has been how league teams have gone about their non-conference scheduling.
In playing in the Emerald Coast Classic, Ohio State figured to have opportunities against high-major opponents Alabama and Oregon. The Ducks were upset by Santa Clara in the first round, so when the Buckeyes beat Alabama they faced the Broncos and not Oregon in the title game. The Ducks are No. 56 in the NET and Santa Clara is No. 112, which made that a Quad 3 game for Ohio State instead of a potential Quad 2 game.
Ohio State drew UCLA in the CBS Sports Classic, the final such meeting before the teams become conference rivals. The Bruins are amid a lost season and, at 7-11, sit No. 154 in the NET. That’s a Quad 3 game, and it’s a stark contract to where the Bruins typically are: in the first three years of the NET, UCLA has finished 15th, 11th and third.
The Buckeyes also scheduled a neutral-court game with West Virginia that was played in Cleveland. That would’ve been a Quad 1 game last year (West Virginia was No. 25 in the NET) and three years ago (No. 22) and a Quad 2 game two seasons ago (No. 73), but this year that’s also a Quad 3 game with the Mountaineers ranked No. 154 and 7-12 overall.
Alabama (No. 7) and Texas A&M (No. 39) are the only Quad 1 games Ohio State scheduled in the non-conference. The average NET ranking of teams Ohio State has beaten is 169, and the average of teams it has lost to is 68.
How can Ohio State build an at-large resume?
A good start would be by winning games. Road games, too. To that end, Saturday’s game at Northwestern would scratch both itches for the Buckeyes: a road game against the No. 69 Wildcats is a Quad 1 game for the Buckeyes.
The same goes for Tuesday’s home game with No. 13 Illinois and next Friday’s game at Iowa. All are Quad 1 opportunities. So are games at No. 11 Wisconsin (Feb. 13), at home against No. 2 Purdue on Feb. 18 and at No. 21 Michigan State on Feb. 25.
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A few wins there would go a long way. The other seven games on the schedule are all Quad 2 opportunities.
At this point, at least as far as the NET is concerned, Ohio State won’t be able to take any individual loss that would submarine the rest of the season. But it’s clear the Buckeyes need to start winning games in order for any of this to matter.
“It’s a long season, but if you really start worrying about that end part you get off-task the next game,” sophomore forward Evan Mahaffey said. “We’re focused on this next day of getting better and I feel like the wins will take care of themselves as long as we keep being persistent and having hard days of work.”
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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Can Ohio State still build an NCAA Tournament resume?
