Is Memphis basketball's transfer class one of the best? An analytics guru explains why it is
Penny Hardaway has done it again.
While there are still unresolved matters — chiefly, David Jones’ future and the makeup of the coaching staff — the Memphis basketball coach has put his program in a highly enviable position. Only two months into an offseason most agree is critical, Hardaway’s latest roster overhaul has the Tigers high on the national radar.
Memphis currently ranks No. 7 in the country in overall transfer activity, according to EvanMiya.com, a website run by advanced analytics guru Evan Miyakawa.
It’s a testament to the Tigers’ deft work in landing such proven talent as guards Tyrese Hunter and PJ Haggerty, and big men Dain Dainja and Moussa Cisse — even if it hasn’t generated the same kind of buzz among the college basketball world at-large that Hardaway’s other recruiting classes have.
“It's puzzling that there was so much hype for last year's team and crickets for this year's team,” Ken Pomeroy, another influential analytics aficionado, posted Tuesday on X, formerly known as Twitter.
For Miyakawa’s money, however, Memphis is poised to make a lot of noise in 2024-25. A data scientist who holds a Ph.D. in statistics, he uses projected Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR) — the overall value that a player adds to his team on a per-possession basis while he's on the court — to determine which teams have generated the most net worth thanks to the transfer portal.
Memphis basketball’s incoming transfers
Miyakawa’s transfer portal ratings are intended to serve as a barometer for overall roster strength. He notes six of Memphis’ seven incoming transfers have higher projected BPR numbers than all seven of its outgoing transfers.
The highest-rated transfer Hardaway has landed so far?
Dainja. The 6-foot-10 big man spent the past two seasons at Illinois. After averaging 9.5 points and 5.5 rebounds (in 20.6 minutes per game) with 39 blocks and 25 steals in 2022-23, Dainja’s playing time last season, and therefore production (6.1 points and 3.6 rebounds in 10.6 minutes a game) took a hit.
Still, Miyakawa projects Dainja will register a 4.73 BPR next season — meaning the expectation is the Tigers will be 4.73 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor. It is the highest projected BPR mark for any incoming Tigers player to this point.
Why? Miyakawa points toward a variety of factors, including points per 40 minutes (Dainja was on pace for 23 last season, “which is very good”) and his “outstanding” shooting efficiency (67%). The projected offensive BPR is 2.94, second only to Haggerty (2.96), who was 15th in the nation in scoring (21.6 points per game) last season at Tulsa.
Then there is the defensive side. Illinois allowed 91.6 points per 100 possessions when Dainja was on the floor — the lowest of any player on the team. Without him in the game last season, the Illini gave up 99.5 points per 100 possessions.
A star-studded frontcourt?
Dainja isn’t the only interior player anticipated to add big value. Former SMU post player Tyreek Smith and Cisse (Ole Miss) are third and fourth among Hardaway’s additions in projected BPR at 4.13 and 3.96, respectively.
Based on projected BPR, each player in the transfer portal is broken up into a five-star ranking system. So far, the Tigers have added two five-star players, four four-stars and one three-star.
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Dainja and Hunter (4.61 projected BPR) qualify as five-star transfers, with Smith and Cisse in close proximity. For reference, Miyakawa projects the average five-star transfers to be a top-150 player nationally. Drake transfer Tucker DeVries (now at West Virginia) falls into that category, Miyakawa said.
Others, like Cisse, don’t have to put up traditionally mainstream numbers to make a significant impression.
“Defensive impact is a big one here,” Miyakawa said.
The 7-footer, who played for Hardaway as a freshman in 2020-21, has an eye-popping 3.38 projected defensive BPR — the second-best mark in the transfer portal this offseason.
Rounding out Memphis' current incoming transfers on Miyakawa's scale are Haggerty (3.84 projected overall BPR), guard Baraka Okojie (3.31) and wing Colby Rogers (0.91).
Reach sports writer Jason Munz at jason.munz@commercialappeal.com or follow him @munzly on X, the social media app formerly known as Twitter.
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Why Memphis basketball's transfer class is so highly ranked