Seven games – three at home, four on the road – versus six teams over the next three weeks.

Memphis basketball is at the foot of a steep metaphorical hill right now. Awaiting the Tigers at the summit is an NCAA Tournament at-large bid.

Memphis (18-6, 7-4 AAC) has won three consecutive games and is set to face North Texas (13-10, 6-5) in Denton on Thursday (7 p.m., ESPN+). The wins over Tulane, Temple and Wichita State were baby steps forward. But the alternative might have resulted in a calamitous plunge – likely an automatic berth-or-bust outcome, which seemed preposterous this time a month ago − followed by plenty uncomfortable conversations. After all, a four-game losing streak, underscored by a Quad 4 home loss to Rice, has a way of stacking the deck against you.

So, while most agree Memphis would likely miss out on March Madness for the first time since 2021 if the season ended today, the Tigers still have the means and opportunity to matriculate back to the right side of the bubble.

Can Memphis basketball get NCAA Tournament at-large bid?

Yes.

Sure, it’s a longshot right now. But, while most projections have the Tigers outside the field of 68, they are within striking distance.

Memphis does not appear on ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi's most recent projection. But CBS Sports' Jerry Palm lists the Tigers under his "first four out" heading.

Bart Torvik, an advanced analytics guru, developed a projection formula he coined T-Ranketology. It is an attempt to forecast the field based on thousands of simulations updated daily. T-Ranketology gives the Tigers less than a 2.9% chance of getting an at-large bid.

So, he’s saying there’s a chance.

How can Memphis secure an at-large bid?

The single-most important thing for the Tigers over the next few weeks is winning.

Up next is North Texas at the Super Pit. A win there − considering it would be a high Quad 2 victory and the team's fourth straight − would move the needle far more than any one since Jan. 7, when Memphis beat SMU at home.

But the stakes will be raised considerably soon. The Tigers face SMU Sunday (3 p.m., ESPN). They are also set to host Charlotte (7 p.m., Feb. 21) and No. 24 FAU (1 p.m., Feb. 25), before closing out the regular season at ECU, at home with UAB, and at FAU.

SMU and the season finale at FAU are almost certain Quad 1 opportunities – and, obviously, the more of those there are, the better for Hardaway and Co. The home game with FAU figures to be a borderline Quad 1-2 prospect.

Memphis is currently No. 75 in the NCAA’s NET rankings. But it has three Quad 1 wins (VCU, Clemson and Texas A&M), and it is on the verge of a fourth in Virginia, which is No. 34.

Still, though, none of that matters if the Tigers don’t take care of their own business down the stretch. If they win out, odds are they’ll be in good shape on Selection Sunday. If they lose at SMU or FAU and win a couple games at the AAC Tournament, there might still be a sliver of hope.

But a loss to any team other than SMU or FAU would almost certainly doom Memphis’ at-large hopes.

Will Memphis do it?

The odds say it’s next to impossible. Precedence and potential say otherwise.

Memphis has traditionally been an incredibly tough beat this time of year. It is 29-7 in February and March (regular season and AAC tournament only) since 2021.

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The Tigers also have all the talent they need to go on a run. David Jones is an All-American candidate and Jahvon Quinerly has superstar potential. Nae’Qwan Tomlin and Jaykwon Walton are above-average supporting cast members. Malcolm Dandridge has consistently shown flashes of dominance. Nicholas Jourdain is one of the top sixth men in the league.

If Memphis holds true to form, starts firing on all cylinders and pretties up the resume a bit more, the selection committee will absolutely reward the Tigers with an at-large bid.

Reach sports writer Jason Munz at jason.munz@commercialappeal.com or follow him @munzly on X, the social media app formerly known as Twitter.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Will Memphis basketball get March Madness at-large bid? Our prediction