Mississippi State football is projected to win five games in Jeff Lebby’s first season as coach, according to ESPN’s College Football Power Index for 2024.

The Bulldogs are given a 40% chance of winning six games, which would clinch automatic bowl eligibility. As for making a run at the national title, MSU has a less than 1% chance while holding a 1.7% chance of making the College Football Playoff – which includes a 12-team field beginning this year.

Mississippi State ranks 15th out of 16 SEC teams in projected win totals, sitting only ahead of Vanderbilt. A big part of the low expectations comes from MSU’s slate.

The Bulldogs’ strength of schedule ranks second in the country. Only Florida – a team facing Miami, Central Florida and Florida State in the nonconference – has a tougher path. The eight toughest schedules in the nation belong to SEC teams.

If the projections prove to be correct, the Bulldogs could still have a chance at a bowl berth. Multi-year Academic Progress Rates would be the deciding factor.

Mississippi State’s multi-year APR of 984 is tied for 40th in the country, according to the NCAA’s database. Among teams projected to win between 5-6 games in the FPI, MSU ranks eighth.

MARK CALENDARS: Mississippi State football schedule 2024: SEC announces kickoff times, windows for eight games

Stefan Krajisnik is the Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion Ledger. Contact him at skrajisnik@gannett.com or follow him on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, @skrajisnik3.

This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State football: ESPN win predictions for Jeff Lebby in 2024