LSU women's basketball is a 3-seed in latest Top 16 reveal. Can it earn a 1- or 2-seed?
One month ago, following back-to-back losses, LSU women's basketball's climb back to near the top two-seed line in the upcoming NCAA Tournament looked as steep as it had all season.
After six straight wins — paired with a host of upsets of team's that have been ranked ahead of them in polls, previous seeding reveals and bracket projections — the No. 9-ranked Tigers (24-4, 11-3) have reentered the chat for teams considered for one of the top eight to 12 seeds for March Madness.
The NCAA Tournament selection committee dropped its second and final top-16 seeds Thursday and Kim Mulkey and LSU improved its standings in the group's eyes, now a No. 3 seed in Albany 2 Regional, No. 9 overall, with less than three weeks remaining until Selection Sunday. The Tigers are up five spots from No. 14 overall, where they were in the committee's first reveal two weeks ago.
What will it take for LSU to maintain a No. 3 seed? Is there a path for LSU to climb up to No. 2, possibly even the No. 1 line?
Let's break it down.
LSU women's basketball's path to clinch a No. 3 seed in NCAA Tournament
The No. 3 line is where most bracketologists have LSU in their brackets. What that means is the Tigers have to "hold serve" or better yet, just not lose games it shouldn't lose.
LSU needs to close out the regular season with two more wins, over Georgia on Thursday night and against Kentucky on Sunday afternoon. In next week's SEC Tournament, the Tigers needs to win their quarterfinal game.
Because of LSU's top 10 NET ranking, there should be enough margin for error for it to afford a very close loss, like the one-point loss to Tennessee in Greenville, South Carolina last season, in the conference tournament semifinals, to either Tennessee again or possibly Ole Miss. But if a Mississippi State or Vanderbilt, or Alabama gets to the semis, LSU will need to win against those teams to be sitting in a good spot for a No. 3 seed.
Is it possible for Kim Mulkey and the Tigers to get a No. 2 seed in March Madness? What about a No. 1 seed?
Let's go ahead and get the No. 1 seed question out of the way now. LSU won't be able to climb up to the No. 1 seed line, even if it were to beat No. 1 South Carolina in the SEC Tournament finals.
Too many losses to unranked teams — along with other teams like Iowa (25-4), Texas (26-4), UCLA (22-5), Virginia Tech (23-4) and Ohio State (24-3) having better overall résumés — thanks to LSU's terrible nonconference schedule, and their season-long positioning over LSU makes it all but impossible. Plus, the most likely losses those teams would suffer in their respective conference tournaments would be better losses, which the selection committee deemed important two weeks ago.
There's a route that the Tigers can ascend and land on the No. 2 line for the NCAA Tournament. LSU will need a little bit help. But with the teams that have lost of late, it feels if it the Tigers can take of business, it could very well happen.
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For starters, the Tigers will need to win out to close the regular season, then advance to the SEC championship game. In this scenario, a win over South Carolina is not necessary.
LSU would likely need a couple of losses from other teams as well, like Virginia Tech, Texas, UCLA or maybe Oregon State, who's been red-hot of late. At least two of these teams not advancing to their respective conference tournament final games would be a big help for the Tigers.
Cory Diaz covers the LSU Tigers and Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns for The Daily Advertiser as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his Tigers and Cajuns coverage on Twitter: @ByCoryDiaz. Got questions regarding LSU/UL athletics? Send them to Cory Diaz at bdiaz@gannett.com.
This article originally appeared on Lafayette Daily Advertiser: LSU women's basketball lands 3-seed in NCAA Tournament Top 16 reveal