Can LSU still make College Football Playoff? What's next for Tigers after Texas A&M loss
No. 7 LSU entered its Week 9 game vs. No. 14 Texas A&M as one of two undefeated teams in SEC play and in prime position to compete for one of the 12 spots in the expanded College Football Playoff.
For much of the first half, it appeared as if the Tigers would maintain both their unbeaten status in conference play and potentially move further up the rankings in what would be a dominant win, with LSU leading 17-7 heading into halftime.
But the Aggies, spurred by backup quarterback Marcel Reed, scored on five straight drives in the second half, not including three kneel downs to end the game. Reed led five scoring drives, including four that ended in touchdowns, as the Aggies outscored the Tigers 31-6 in the second half en route to a 38-23 win.
REQUIRED READING: LSU football stumbles at Texas A&M. How we graded Brian Kelly, Tigers after first SEC loss
Even with the defeat, however, the Tigers (6-2, 3-1 in SEC play) aren't out of contention for the playoff. Nor are they out of the race to make the SEC championship game, although the margin of error has shrunk drastically with the defeat in College Station.
Here's what to know of LSU's chances of making the College Football Playoff.
Can LSU still make the College Football Playoff?
Yes, LSU's chances of making the inaugural 12-team playoff are very much alive, if not diminished following the loss at Texas A&M.
In order to make the final 12-team field, the Tigers must finish inside the top 11 in the final College Football Playoff rankings, which will be unveiled on Sunday, Dec. 8, the day after the majority of conference championship games have concluded. The 12th and final spot almost certainly will go to the fifth highest-ranked conference champion, who is not likely to finish inside the top 12 of the final CFP rankings.
(As of Week 9, No. 19 Boise State was the highest-ranked Group of Five team).
The good news for the Tigers is that a total of 52 teams with two or three losses finished among the top 11 teams in the final CFP rankings from 2014-23, not including the 2020 COVID-19 year. Better yet, LSU is scheduled to play two games vs. teams that entered Week 9 ranked: No. 15 Alabama on Nov. 9 and No. 25 Vanderbilt on Nov. 23 (though the Commodores are likely to fall out of the top 25 following their 27-24 loss to Texas).
LSU's best chance at making the CFP is winning out, finishing the season with merely two losses and awaiting seeding come the final CFP selection show. A third loss may be too much to overcome with just four games remaining.
Can LSU earn CFP first-round bye?
That depends on whether LSU can accomplish two things over the next five weeks.
Make the SEC championship game
Win the SEC championship game
The second of those two points is moot unless the Tigers can win out and be one of the two teams to play the title game in Atlanta. As it stands now, LSU is tied for third in the standings with a 3-1 SEC record with Tennessee and Texas, all of whom trail No. 1 Texas A&M (5-0) and No. 2 Georgia (4-1).
In order to make the SEC title game, LSU will have to win out, finishing the season with a 7-1 SEC record. One potential problem in reaching Atlanta, of course, is Texas A&M. Even if the Aggies lost a game, they would still have the head-to-head victory vs. the Tigers, meaning LSU needs them to lose at least two games if they want to be able to jump them in the standings.
As it stands now, LSU could finish the season at 7-1 in SEC play and in a potential three-way tie for second with Texas and Tennessee (if the Vols beat Georgia in Week 12). Another scenario that could play out is LSU wins the remainder of its games and finishes in a tie for second with Georgia, who already has a head-to-head victory vs. Texas and, in this scenario, beats Tennessee in Week 12.
Either way, expect convoluted SEC tiebreaker rules to come into effect to determine who makes the championship game. If LSU does make and win the conference title game, however, the Tigers almost certainly would be guaranteed to finish as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions, each of which get a first-round bye.
REQUIRED READING: LSU football at Texas A&M: Score, live updates as teams battle for top spot in SEC
LSU football schedule 2024
Here's LSU's schedule for the 2024 season:
Sunday, Sept. 1: vs. No. 23 USC (Las Vegas) (L, 27-20)
Saturday, Sept. 7: vs. Nicholls (W, 44-20)
Saturday, Sept. 14: at South Carolina (W, 36-33)*
Saturday, Sept. 21: vs. UCLA (W, 34-17)
Saturday, Sept. 28: vs. South Alabama (W, 42-10)
Saturday, Oct. 5: BYE
Saturday, Oct. 12: vs. No. 8 Ole Miss (W, 28-26) (OT)
Saturday, Oct. 19: at Arkansas (W, 34-10)
Saturday, Oct. 26: at No. 14 Texas A&M (L, 38-23)
Saturday, Nov. 2: BYE
Saturday, Nov. 9: vs. No. 15 Alabama*
Saturday, Nov. 16: at Florida*
Saturday, Nov. 23: vs. No. 25 Vanderbilt*
Saturday, Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma*
* Denotes SEC game
LSU finishes its season with four SEC games, three of which take place in Tiger Stadium. They play No. 15 Alabama (5-2, 3-2); Florida (4-3, 2-2); Vanderbilt (5-3, 2-2); and Oklahoma (4-4, 1-4).
Of those, the home contest vs. the Crimson Tide on Nov. 9 — in what amounts to a potential CFP elimination game — appears to be the toughest remaining game. But four straight wins vs. teams that are, as of Week 9, no worse than .500 certainly would be hard to dismiss by the CFP selection committee.
This article originally appeared on Lafayette Daily Advertiser: Can LSU football still make CFP? What's next after Texas A&M loss