The 2024 NFL regular season officially hit its halfway point in Week 9. When it comes to the MVP vote, it's starting to look a lot like 2023.

Lamar Jackson sprinkled a dusting of touchdowns and completions on the Denver Broncos' top three defense en route to a 41-10 win and a perfect 158.3 passer rating. It was more compelling evidence he can repeat as Most Valuable Player and join the ranks of legends like Tom Brady, Jim Brown, Peyton Manning and Johnny Unitas with at least three MVP awards.

However, he hasn't run away with it yet. While 2024 as a whole has seen a decline in prolific passing offenses, this year's crop of quarterbacks has been wildly efficient at the top. Josh Allen fended off the idea of a Buffalo Bills rebuild and is in position to run away with another AFC East title. Joe Burrow has overcome his customary slow start and is looking to rally the Cincinnati Bengals. Jayden Daniels has the Washington Commanders in place not only for a playoff berth, but a divisional title and maybe even a first round bye along the way.

Which of these quarterbacks has been the most effective through Week 9? Fortunately, we’ve got some advanced stats to help figure that out.

Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.

The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 36 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 144 snaps through nine weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:

Spencer Rattler's return to the bench and Bryce Young's modest competence means poor Anthony Richardson remains alone in what's effectively his own quadrant. Ooof. If you split up the rest of the league’s starters into tiers, it looks something like this:

Let’s see how this week’s rankings shook out.

1. Nothing's changed all the much in the MVP race

1. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 0.201 EPA+CPOE composite

2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.188

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.172

4. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.168

Jackson needed 18 passes to throw for 280 yards and three touchdowns in Week 9. He's had a passer rating over 100 in each of his last seven games and a rating over 114 in six of those seven. Allen didn't have Amari Cooper in the lineup and still found a way to rally past the Dolphins.

Daniels is the starting quarterback of the team with the second-best record in the NFC. Burrow beat the Raiders, which isn't very interesting but was wildly necessary for his postseason hopes.

2. The still-dense field of very good quarterbacks (and also Derek Carr)

5. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.153 EPA+CPOE composite

6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.149

7. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.147

8. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings: 0.139

9. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.136

10. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.136

11. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons: 0.135

12. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.130

13. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.127

Carr continues to linger among the elite even as the Saints crash down around him. That's predicated on the strength of two wins to start the season and the fact he's rarely disastrous in a way that shines through the box score.

Tagovailoa has been the spark the Dolphins offense needed and it hasn't mattered; they're 0-2 since his return. Goff has only thrown the ball 62 times the last three weeks but still has six touchdown passes and an 83 percent completion rate.

3. Actually, Justin Herbert is much better than this

14. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 0.111 EPA+CPOE composite

15. Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.099

16. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.097

17. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.088

18. Joe Flacco, Indianapolis Colts: 0.086

19. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.084

Herbert has yet to have a game this season where his passer rating dipped below 91. He just roasted the Browns' once-proud defense for more than 10 yards per pass attempt in a blowout win. He's doing this with Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey and Joshua Palmer as his top wideouts. He is significantly better than the 19th best quarterback in the NFL, numbers be damned.

Fields was perfectly cromulent as a starter. But Russell Wilson's composite is 0.143, further proving our nation's truest renewable resource is Mike Tomlin winning seasons.

4. We mostly expected better

20. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets: 0.071 EPA+CPOE composite

21. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.069

22. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.068

23. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 0.057

24. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.056

25. Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 0.053

26. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.050

Stafford is trending up in a big way recently thanks to the game planning that's reduced his pressure in the pocket -- after being sacked 16 times in his first five games he's only been taken down once in the Rams' three-game winning streak. Lawrence was moving in the same direction until an unpleasant game against the Eagles. Stroud is dealing with the triple-whammy of poor blocking, wideout injuries and the fact opponents have enough game tape to properly plan against him.

Jones overcame a zero-yard first half and is looking, at the very least, like a high value 2025 backup quarterback. So, good news Giants fans! Maye isn't winning games (nor do the Patriots really want him to) but he's shown enough to suggest he was the right pick at third overall last spring.

5. It's bad

27. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans: 0.043 EPA+CPOE composite

28. Gardner Minshew II, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.038

29. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: 0.034

30. Mason Rudolph, Tennessee Titans: 0.032

31. Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers: 0.028

32. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 0.025

Williams has been let down by his coaching staff. Nix is working his butt off despite a stark lack of playmakers. Both have the talent to escape this tier, but it may not happen in 2024. Rudolph led an overtime win against the Patriots, which probably felt good at the moment but may have sunk Tennessee's chance at the top overall pick in next spring's draft which feels... less good.

6. It's very bad

33. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: 0.014 EPA+CPOE composite

34. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.012

35. Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots: 0.010

Watson should have been benched before his torn Achilles forced the issue, wrapping up his third fruitless season after the Browns traded for him despite more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL itself described as "predatory behavior." Young beat the Saints in Week 9 and, in the process, recorded his first game with a positive EPA since Christmas Eve 2023.

7. The Tony Zone(y)

36. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: -0.055 EPA+CPOE composite

Joe Flacco didn't spark the Colts' offense to a win in Week 10. But he also completed more than half his passes and didn't ask out of the game to catch his breath, so it still constituted an upgrade. Richardson is bound to re-enter the starting lineup and work out the kinks that threaten to scuttle his career. When depends on how long it takes Indianapolis to drop out of the playoff race.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: Lamar Jackson's next MVP may be inevitable, Bryce Young rises slightly in Week 10's quarterback ranks