What should Kentucky basketball's lineup be when Tre Mitchell returns? What numbers say
LEXINGTON — One of the lone constants in a season full of ups and downs — wins and losses, players available or unavailable due to injury or eligibility issues — for Kentucky basketball is this: When Tre Mitchell is healthy, he starts.
Mitchell, a senior forward, has appeared in 22 games this season; he's started all of them. The only other Wildcat who can make that claim: fellow senior Antonio Reeves, who is 28 for 28. (Freshmen Justin Edwards and D.J. Wagner have come off the bench once each this season, but otherwise have started every other game they've taken the floor.) UK is coming off a last-second victory at Mississippi State, where freshman guard Reed Sheppard came through with the game-winning shot.
Mitchell watched Sheppard's heroics from the bench. It marked Mitchell's fourth straight absence after injuring his shoulder in Kentucky's home win over Ole Miss on Feb. 13.
When he'll return isn't certain. During coach John Calipari's weekly radio show Wednesday night, he said he hoped Mitchell could go through "a couple practices" prior to Saturday's home game versus Arkansas.
"How much can you really play him," Calipari said, "and how do you start playing him?"
The good news for the Wildcats? The numbers, advanced or otherwise, show they're versatile enough to mix and match Mitchell any which way they choose.
Mitchell has been part of UK's two most-used starting lineups this season:
Lineup 1 (nine starts): Mitchell, Edwards, Reeves, Wagner and freshman forward Aaron Bradshaw.
Lineup 2 (seven starts): Mitchell, Edwards, Reeves, Wagner and sophomore guard Adou Thiero.
Both those quintets have experienced great success; the former is 7-2, and the latter is 6-1.
Take away the "starting" designation and Mitchell also has been on the court for some of the Wildcats' most daunting lineups. Among the five-man groups that have played at least 30 minutes together this season, Mitchell is part of seven of them. That includes two with staggering plus-minus figures: The arrangement of Mitchell/Reeves/Wagner/Sheppard and big man Ugonna Onyenso has outscored opponents by 31 points (80-49) in 32 minutes together; extrapolated over 40 minutes, that's a plus-minus figure of plus-38.75.
But another assemblage involving Mitchell is even more deadly — him flanked by the freshman quartet of Edwards, Sheppard, Wagner and Rob Dillingham. That group, which has been on the court 31:03 in 2023-24, has blown away the competition by 46 points (78-32). Per 40 minutes, that's a plus-minus rating of plus-59.26.
Individual metrics also have treated Mitchell kindly.
According to EvanMiya.com, Mitchell's Bayesian Performance Rating — which the site describes as "a measure of a player's overall value to a team when he is on the floor" — is 4.60. That's the fourth-best mark on the team, trailing only Sheppard (8.91), Dillingham (6.08) and Reeves (4.87). But the figures for Dillingham and Reeves are inflated, since so much of their production is offensively; aside from Sheppard, no UK player provides more production, offensively and defensively, than Mitchell.
It's the same story with Mitchell's Box Bayesian Performance Rating; the difference between that and the non-box performance rating is the box figure bases its number solely on a player's individual stats. Once more, Mitchell's influence is evident, as his rating of 4.91 is third on the team, trailing Sheppard (7.20) and Dillingham (6.00). (As is the case with the Bayesian Performance Rating, Mitchell's Box Bayesian Performance Rating attests that only Sheppard offers as much, or more, two-way value than the transfer from West Virginia.)
For those who downplay — or downright despise — analytics and advanced metrics, Mitchell also delivers in the more traditional statistical departments.
Among them:
His four double-doubles this season are a team high.
His 33 minutes per game are another team best.
His 7.5 rebounds per game paces the Wildcats — well ahead of his closest teammate (Thiero at 5.3) — and ranks sixth in the SEC. Mitchell averages 5.77 defensive rebounds per contest, which trails only Auburn's Johni Broome (6.11) among conference players.
He boasts an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.27, just two-hundredths behind Sheppard (2.29) for tops on the team. Mitchell dishes out 3.1 assists per game — UK's only frontcourt player who can make that claim, as the only other Wildcats above 3.0 are Sheppard (4.3), Dillingham (3.7) and Wagner (3.5), all guards. Mitchell has 68 total assists, a single-season personal record for the fifth-year player, achieving the mark in just 19 games.
For all he brings to the Wildcats — veteran leadership, a knack for making the right pass and avoiding mistakes along with a soft shooting touch from all areas of the floor — perhaps the best measure of Mitchell's worth is this: He's pulled down 10 or more rebounds six times this season; that's twice as many as No. 2 in that category. (Onyenso has done so on three occasions.)
Given how Calipari has handled other injuries this season, don't be surprised if Mitchell comes off the bench in his first game back from injury. And as soon as he's near optimum health again, he'll reclaim his spot in the starting lineup.
A reality one opposing coach — a future Hall of Famer, at that — is thankful his team didn't have to confront.
"Guys, we spent a lot of time worrying about Tre Mitchell," said Gonzaga coach Mark Few, whose team toppled Kentucky, 89-85, at Rupp Arena on Feb. 10, a game Mitchell sat out with an ailing back, "because he’s a tough matchup with his picking and popping and what he can do if he gets a small guy on a mismatch.
"We caught a huge break there with him not playing."
Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Tre Mitchell: Senior's on-court influence for Kentucky basketball