LEXINGTON — The expectation for any five-star prospect who signs with Kentucky is that his stay with the program will be brief. One stellar season, then on to the NBA draft — more likely than not, in the lottery; at the least, in the first round. That was the thinking surrounding UK freshman big man Aaron Bradshaw, the No. 4 overall player in the 2023 class (per the 247Sports Composite) and widely considered the prospect with arguably the highest ceiling, and most potential, of any collegian.

That thinking has gone awry so far.

A foot injury sidelined Bradshaw during UK's trip to Toronto for the GLOBL JAM tournament last summer, as well as both preseason exhibitions and the first seven regular-season games in 2023-24. He finally made his debut Dec. 2, coming off the bench in a home loss to UNC Wilmington. While he had a breakout performance in his second outing — a 17-point, 11-rebound, three-block effort against Penn in Philadelphia on Dec. 9 — the returns since then have been underwhelming. He hasn't had another game in which he pulled down 10 rebounds (he had eight once, versus South Carolina) and only has tallied five more double-digit-point games, with a high of 12 (one versus North Carolina, and the other in a blowout win at SEC cellar dweller Vanderbilt last week).

For the season, Bradshaw is averaging 5.9 points and 4.2 rebounds in 18 minutes per game — which includes 10 starts in 17 appearances.

His production to this point made it difficult for ESPN, which published its latest draft update Tuesday, to find many bright spots.

"It's hard to make a great case for his draftability other than the fact he was a top player in his recruiting class," wrote Jeremy Woo, who covers basketball prospects and the NBA draft for ESPN.

But Woo wasn't finished.

"If Bradshaw can't earn the trust of the coaching staff," Woo wrote, "this might become a situation where he should think hard about returning to school to rebuild his draft profile."

Would Bradshaw actually come back for a second go-round with the Wildcats?

Here's why he should — and shouldn't.

The case for Aaron Bradshaw entering the NBA draft

History, by and large, hasn't shown he'd benefit from another college season.

Since John Calipari's first season as Kentucky's coach in 2009-10, he's had 11 players return for their sophomore season who then entered the subsequent NBA draft.

The track record isn't good.

The Wildcats have had more sophomores go undrafted (four: Isaiah Briscoe, Ashton Hagans, Aaron Harrison and EJ Montgomery) than develop into first-round picks (three: Terrence Jones, Immanuel Quickley and P.J. Washington). The remaining quartet — Andrew Harrison, Dakari Johnson, Doron Lamb and Tyler Ulis — heard their names called in the second round of their respective drafts.

That group doesn't even include Wildcats who returned for their sophomore seasons and then transferred elsewhere for Year 3 (Keion Brooks Jr. and Daimion Collins, who are playing at Washington and LSU, respectively) or those who decided to remain in Lexington even longer (Willie Cauley-Stein and Nick Richards played three seasons under Calipari before turning pro).

One look at those numbers, and it'd be no surprise if Bradshaw decides to roll the dice by entering the draft after this season.

Construction of 2024-25 roster could be an issue.

While Kentucky, without question, would find a space for Bradshaw if he elected to return next season, there's a delicate balance every program tries to strike each year between roster retention and incoming players, whether the newcomers are from the high school ranks or transfer portal.

As it stands, the Wildcats already have five players in their 2024 recruiting class: guards Boogie Fland and Travis Perry, wing Billy Richmond and centers Somto Cyril and Jayden Quaintance. And they are still actively pursuing five-star small forward Karter Knox as well as international big man Khaman Maluach, who was on an official visit this week (and attended Tuesday's win over Ole Miss).

Then there are the current players who could decide to return in 2024-25. The likeliest to be back are Jordan Burks and Joey Hart (late additions to UK's 2023 class) as well as Adou Thiero. Fellow 7-footers Ugonna Onyenso and Zvonimir Ivišić will be in the same boat as Bradshaw, weighing whether their immediate future is in the NBA or another season of college basketball. Three freshmen appear near certainties to depart (Rob Dillingham, Justin Edwards and D.J. Wagner), while another freshman, home state hero Reed Sheppard might enjoy his stature as a larger-than-life figure in Lexington enough already that he decides to stick around — lottery pick projections aside — and play with his friend, Perry, the all-time leading scorer in the history of Kentucky high school basketball.

Bradshaw would have a role next season, certainly. Perhaps even a starting job. But with so much up in the air between now and then, nothing is guaranteed.

Klutch could come through in the clutch again.

When Chris Livingston gambled and bet on himself by staying in the 2023 NBA Draft instead of returning to Kentucky, many draft analysts questioned the decision, believing he might have benefited from a second year of seasoning in college. Their main concern: whether he'd get drafted at all.

But his agency, Klutch Sports Group, came through: Livingston was the final selection of the draft, going with the 58th overall pick to the Milwaukee Bucks. It was widely reported on draft night Klutch CEO Rich Paul called various NBA teams during the second round and told them not to select Livingston.

That's power.

If all Bradshaw cares about is getting drafted, regardless of the pick or round, Paul and Klutch have shown they can pull enough strings to make that a reality.

The case for Aaron Bradshaw returning to Kentucky

History doesn't have to serve as a guide.

If Bradshaw decides another season with the Wildcats is the right call, all he needs to do is recall this phrase: "Past performance is not indicative of future results."

Who cares if four previous Cal-era players went undrafted after returning for their sophomore campaigns? Why does it matter if four more only went in the second round? What difference does it make that Washington was the only member of that aforementioned group of 11 who turned into a lottery pick?

Every player's situation is different. What happened in the past shouldn't dictate Bradshaw's future.

If nothing else, look at the 2024 mock drafts compared with the 2025 edition: A 7-footer isn't projected to come off the board in 2025 until Maluach with the final pick in the first round (30th overall). If Bradshaw turns in a superlative sophomore season in 2024-25, he has a chance to go far higher — and thus, make far more money as a rookie — in next year's draft than this year's, when he's no guarantee to be a first rounder.

Another year gives him a chance to have a full season to showcase himself.

Bradshaw was a consensus five-star prospect for a reason. He's exactly what NBA teams want from a modern big man: agile enough to run the floor, knock down shots from the perimeter and be a rim protector defensively.

Bradshaw can improve in all of those facets. He's shooting 25% (3 for 12) beyond the 3-point arc this season, but that shouldn't be a concern. His technique is sound; shots simply haven't dropped. And while he'll likely never be a shot blocker on the level of Onyenso — he's tracking on an all-time pace this season — Bradshaw's height alone means he can alter opponent's shots, and decision-making, even on possessions he isn't credited with blocks.

Perhaps the primary area Bradshaw should focus on during a second college season: his body. While he's 7-foot-1, his body is as slender as they come, with just 226 pounds on his frame. He could stand to gain some weight, and strength, before battling NBA veterans.

Another year could give him a chance to still achieve a goal if Kentucky comes up short this season.

How much does winning a national title — and leaving a legacy that never would be forgotten in Lexington — mean to Bradshaw?

At one time, apparently, everything.

"I came here for a reason, ya feel me? I came here to win a national championship and continue on my journey," Bradshaw said during the team's media day last fall. "That's all I want under my belt."

A second season suiting up for Kentucky doubles his chances at adding a ring to his collection. And memories money couldn't buy.

Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Aaron Bradshaw: Should Kentucky freshman return or enter NBA draft?