LAWRENCE — Kansas football’s first three years of the coach Lance Leipold era have seen the program establish itself in a way it hadn’t been in years.

After a challenging 2021 season, the Jayhawks did something in 2022 they hadn’t in more than a decade and reached a bowl game. They followed that up with another bowl game in 2023, and in winning the Guaranteed Rate Bowl recorded the first bowl victory in more than a decade. So, understandably, expectations are high for KU as the 2024 campaign approaches.

But, should things fall Kansas’ way this season, what’s 2024 look like? If things go wrong for the Jayhawks, what would 2024 look like then? Both outcomes are evident of how far the program’s come since Leipold’s staff took over ahead of the 2021 campaign.

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Here are some hypothetical best-case and worst-case scenarios with Big 12 Conference media days this week in Las Vegas and fall camp approaching:

Best-case scenario

Kansas’ first three games come in non-conference play on Aug. 29 at home against Lindenwood, Sept. 7 on the road against Illinois and Sept. 13 at home against UNLV. It’s a slate that includes two familiar opponents, as the Jayhawks beat Illinois at home last season and UNLV in that Guaranteed Rate Bowl victory. Leipold and company, despite having to play their home games away from Lawrence, don’t leave any doubt against any of the three to start off 3-0.

Big 12 Conference play comes up next, and in the opener Kansas comes up short Sept. 21 on the road against a formidable West Virginia side. However, the Jayhawks respond with a winning streak. Ahead of a rivalry game at the end of October, they win Sept. 28 at home against TCU, Oct. 5 on the road against Arizona State and Oct. 19 at home against Houston to reach 6-1 overall and 3-1 in the Big 12.

Those three wins, one against a new member of the Big 12, provide some momentum for Kansas ahead of an Oct. 26 road game against Kansas State. It’s something that’s much-needed, especially considering the Jayhawks’ losing streak against this rival has lasted more than a decade. This time Kansas gets it done, not by a wide margin but by just enough, and heads into November at 7-1 overall and 4-1 in the Big 12.

That beginning of November doesn’t start off well, with a tough loss Nov. 9 at home against Iowa State, but once again Kansas responds well to a defeat. A Nov. 16 road trip to BYU ends with a commanding win, and the Nov. 23 home finale against Colorado sees the Jayhawks show up on a national stage. Then, after taking care of Baylor on Nov. 30 on the road, Kansas waits to learn where it stands in the Big 12 after going 10-2 overall and 7-2 in conference play.

Worst-case scenario

Kansas’ non-conference slate starts off well with a win against Lindenwood, but the road trip to Illinois proves less fruitful. The Jayhawks respond with a win against UNLV, but it takes a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter for them to survive and be able to enter Big 12 play with a winning record. It’s not the momentum the program thought it would have, sitting at 2-1.

That lack of momentum sees Kansas drop the Big 12 opener on the road against West Virginia, as the Jayhawks can’t recreate the magic of the win at West Virginia back in 2022. Kansas also drops its first Big 12 game at home, as TCU capitalizes on the Jayhawks’ slide. Back-to-back wins at Arizona State and at home against Houston get the team back to a winning record, but Leipold and company are still at 4-3 overall and 2-2 in conference play.

Kansas State ends Kansas’ winning streak, and extends the Jayhawks’ losing streak against their rival as October comes to an end. Kansas responds this time at home against Iowa State to kick off November, and wins on the road against BYU to become bowl eligible with two games to play. But a team that started the year with Big 12 title aspirations drops its last two at home against Colorado and on the road against Baylor, and a third-straight year of bowl eligibility for Kansas (6-6, 4-5 in Big 12) doesn’t lead to the same celebration it would have otherwise.

It’s still something the Jayhawks hadn’t even done during the Mark Mangino era. As the program continues to showcase what happened in the decade before Leipold is long in the past, it’s something worth praising and something that should not be forgotten. It’s just not where Kansas thought it would be when the season began.

Jordan Guskey covers University of Kansas Athletics at The Topeka Capital-Journal. He is the National Sports Media Association’s sportswriter of the year for the state of Kansas for 2022. Contact him at jmguskey@gannett.com or on Twitter at @JordanGuskey.

This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Kansas football best-, worst-case scenarios in 2024 with Lance Leipold