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Kansas basketball vs. Samford in March Madness: Prediction for 2024 NCAA tournament opener

LAWRENCE — Kansas basketball can earn a trip to the round of 32 of the NCAA tournament, it just has to top Samford in the round of 64 to get there.

The Jayhawks (22-10), a No. 4 seed, will represent the Big 12 Conference as one of its at-large selections. The Bulldogs (29-5), a No. 13 seed, will represent the Southern Conference as its conference tournament champion. The game is scheduled for Thursday at 8:55 p.m. (CT) in Salt Lake City, and will be televised on TBS.

Kansas will go into the game having struggled of late, considering it hasn’t been able to be at full strength. Samford, also the Southern Conference’s regular season champion, is riding a four-game winning streak.

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Here are a few things to think about before the Jayhawks and Bulldogs tip off, as well as a prediction:

Samford does shoot from deep more than Kansas does

Three-point shooting has been an issue at times for Kansas this season, both offensively and defensively. It’s a significant reason why the Jayhawks were bounced in the second round of the Big 12 tournament. And in their first game in the NCAA tournament this year, they’ll go up against a team that goes to it more offensively than Kansas does.

Samford averages about 9.9 makes on 25.1 attempts from behind the arc offensively, at a 39.3% clip. The Bulldogs are a good bit clear of the Jayhawks in all three areas. Whether Kansas has senior center Hunter Dickinson and graduate senior guard Kevin McCullar Jr. both back, its ability to keep up offensively and ability to step up defensively will both be tested.

Kansas graduate senior guard Kevin McCullar Jr. (15) reacts after sinking a three against Kansas State in the first half of the Sunflower Showdown inside Allen Fieldhouse Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Kansas graduate senior guard Kevin McCullar Jr. (15) reacts after sinking a three against Kansas State in the first half of the Sunflower Showdown inside Allen Fieldhouse Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Samford hasn’t beaten any high-major teams this season

While Samford has ways it’ll test Kansas, the Bulldogs haven’t gone up against many teams at the level of the Jayhawks this season. In fact, Samford has only played one. That was Purdue, back in early November, and the Bulldogs lost 98-45 on the road against the Boilermakers.

On the other side, Kansas has yet to lose to a mid-major opponent this season. The Jayhawks played a collection of those teams during their non-conference slate. Still, though, that doesn’t guarantee Kansas will be able to advance.

Momentum matters

Samford Bulldogs forward Nathan Johnson (25) and Samford Bulldogs guard Jaden Campbell (2) box out Purdue Boilermakers forward Trey Kaufman-Renn (4) during the NCAA men’s basketball game, Monday, Nov. 6, 2023, at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Ind. Purdue Boilermakers won 98-45.
Samford Bulldogs forward Nathan Johnson (25) and Samford Bulldogs guard Jaden Campbell (2) box out Purdue Boilermakers forward Trey Kaufman-Renn (4) during the NCAA men’s basketball game, Monday, Nov. 6, 2023, at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Ind. Purdue Boilermakers won 98-45.

Considering the way each of these teams are entering the tournament, Samford will have an advantage that Kansas doesn’t. The Bulldogs haven’t lost a game this month, with their four-game winning streak all coming in March. The Jayhawks are 1-3 this month.

Kansas also needs to work two of its stars back, in McCullar and Dickinson. Both are expected to be available, but it’s unclear how close to 100% each of them will be. The more the Jayhawks can develop chemistry ahead of tip-off, the better they’ll be able to meet this test.

MORE: Watch Kansas basketball vs Samford in March Madness on Sling TV

Prediction: Kansas 75, Samford 69

Samford will give Kansas problems. The Bulldogs will get hot from behind the arc in stretches. But the Jayhawks are going to be able to persevere.

Kansas basketball center Hunter Dickinson reacts after a call during the first half of a game against Houston at the Fertitta Center on March 9, 2024 in Houston.
Kansas basketball center Hunter Dickinson reacts after a call during the first half of a game against Houston at the Fertitta Center on March 9, 2024 in Houston.

Jordan Guskey covers University of Kansas Athletics at The Topeka Capital-Journal. He is the National Sports Media Association’s sportswriter of the year for the state of Kansas for 2022. Contact him at jmguskey@gannett.com or on Twitter at @JordanGuskey.

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This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Kansas basketball vs. Samford prediction: March Madness, NCAA pick