Houston Rockets 2024-25 season preview: Is the franchise ready to make a big splash?
The 2024-25 NBA season is here! We're breaking down the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 teams. Enjoy!
HOUSTON ROCKETS
2023-24 finish
Record: 41-41 (failed to make the playoffs)
Offensive rating: 113.7 (20th)
Defensive rating: 112.8 (10th)
Offseason moves
Additions: Steven Adams (well, technically he got there in February, but he never actually played), Reed Sheppard, Jack McVeigh, N’Faly Dante
Subtractions: Reggie Bullock, Boban Marjanović
The Big Question: Does Houston stay the course or make a big splash?
The Rockets finished high in three categories in the annual NBA.com GM Survey. They were the third-most common answer to, “Which team has the most promising young core?” They also received votes to be this season’s most improved team — no mean feat, considering they just went from 22 to 41 wins, the NBA’s largest year-over-year improvement.
The third — tying for second in, “Which team’s level of success this season is toughest to predict? — seems connected to the other two. It depends on how many members of that “promising young core” make a leap … and on whether some prove promising enough to become chips in a trade for a star to send the Rockets into orbit.
“We have high expectations,” owner Tilman Fertitta said. “But to be great, we have to get a little older.”
These Rockets feature seven players under 24, including four top-four picks and three post-lottery players who’ve impressed — most notably Alperen Şengün, who’s just scratching the surface of his talent and might already be Houston’s best player:
Then there are veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks — imported last season to make the Rockets respectable, and due $65 million this season to make them winners.
“Our eyes have to be set on that — set on advancing,” VanVleet said. “Not just making the playoffs, but advancing.”
For now, at least, they’ll have continuity on their side. The Rockets return a league-high 97% of the minutes from last year’s team, which made dramatic defensive gains under Ime Udoka and fielded a top-seven offense over the final 25 games. At the heart of that closing kick: Jalen Green, a tantalizing talent who averaged 27.7 points per game on .613 true shooting in March as the Rockets mounted a play-in push that came up short.
To that already intriguing mix, Houston adds veteran mauler Adams to back up Şengün, and No. 3 overall pick Sheppard, whose elite shooting, pick-and-roll playmaking and magnet-handed defense could merit major minutes. Factor in a healthy return from chaos agent Tari Eason and more minutes for rising sophomore Cam Whitmore, and that’s an awful lot of dudes for Udoka to manage — a group with vast fields’ worth of room to grow, and that needs space to do it.
“Hopefully, this group of players takes another step forward, and at least the core we have can stay together for a long time and be very successful,” Rockets general manager Rafael Stone recently told reporters. “That is definitely Plan A.”
Funny thing about the alphabet, though: There’s, like, a lot of letters after “A.”
The downside of so much depth: It makes finding enough development opportunities for everyone challenging. How will Udoka split ball-handling opportunities between the sure-handed VanVleet and the younger Green, Thompson and Sheppard? How can he get Şengün and Green, whose All-Star moments came at opposite ends of the season, to create elite offense together?
How will Udoka juggle Brooks, Smith, Thompson, Whitmore and Eason at forward? How will he manage a three-deep center rotation of Şengün, Adams and Jock Landale while also finding space for the Smith/Thompson small-ball lineups that supercharged the late-season offense?
All those questions make Houston an obvious candidate for a consolidation trade. Add in the fact that the Rockets also control more than enough draft capital to get into any trade talks for the next available star, and a significant deal feels like a when-not-if proposition.
The “when” matters, though, because Houston might not quite be ready to take its big swing. Neither Green nor Şengün have yet signed rookie-scale extensions; the Rockets might look to hold off on a Şengün deal with an eye toward maintaining his lower 2025-26 cap hold. That would allow them to basically bulldoze their books by declining VanVleet’s $44.8 million team option, opening up nearly $69 million in cap space to go big-game hunting before going over the cap to re-up Şengün. (If this sounds familiar, that’s because it’s how the 76ers just landed Paul George and maxed out Tyrese Maxey.)
But while that kind of patience could pay off, it remains to be seen whether Houston’s decision-makers share that particular virtue — and if they’ll stay locked onto the long view even if the Rockets do look like a legitimate postseason contender. It all creates the feeling of a franchise approaching a tipping point: a roster teeming with promise, but one that also seems to have been constructed to be deconstructed.
Best-case scenario
Green’s late-season shotmaking surge carries over into a renewed and vibrant partnership with Şengün, earning them both All-Star consideration as Houston sprints out of the gate. Sheppard’s every bit the prospect he’s been touted as, contributing on and off the ball on both ends en route to Rookie of the Year honors. With the youngsters developing, the offense improving and Udoka leading a top-five defense, Houston can keep its powder dry and still make the playoffs, heading into the summer with better players, better assets and an enviable number of options for building a would-be title contender.
If everything falls apart
None of the non-Şengün young players pop, affording Stone and Co. precious little clarity about which pieces to bet on while also dinging their prospective trade value. The offense continues to putter around the bottom 10, while the defense sags back toward league-average — a recipe for a just-under .500 team that once again finds itself falling just short of the play-in tournament. It’s not quite a lost year, but the Rockets feel much less certain they’re on the verge of something exciting as they exit the season than they were as they entered.
Fantasy spin
Şengün and VanVleet are the best options from Houston, so expect them to be off the board by the early third round. Şengün was one of five players to average at least 20 points, with nine rebounds and five assists last season. VanVleet's ADP has held firm at 38, but it feels low, considering he's finished inside the top 20 in four straight seasons.
Two of my biggest questions are about Green and Thompson. Green's a safe choice for points leagues because if he starts cold, as he has in the past, his inefficiency won't hurt you. However, I'm not convinced the post-All-Star version of Green last season will be consistent enough for category formats with Şengün healthy. Regarding Thompson — when will he crack the starting lineup? Amen's versatility on both ends is far more impactful than Brooks'. Be sure to prioritize Thompson in the 10th round. — Dan Titus
2024-25 schedule
Season opener: Oct. 23 vs. Charlotte
Over/under win total: 43.5
I feel a little skittish on this one — the phrase “progress isn’t linear!” is running through my head like a freight train — but with so many young players who’ve all shown signs of being real NBA players, with so many prospects and picks to deal, and with a coach and owner who badly want to win immediately, it feels like there might be both a lot of incentive to get better and a lot of pathways to doing so. Three more wins sounds a little steep, but also within the realm of possibility. Let’s be optimists and take the over.
