Hot Takes We Might Actually Believe: Luka Doncic is your 2023 NBA MVP
The 2022-23 NBA season is almost upon us, but Hot Take SZN is here, and at the end of another eventful offseason we will see how close to the sun we can fly and still stand the swelter of these viewpoints.
With his third selection to the All-NBA first team before his 24th birthday, Dallas Mavericks sensation Luka Doncic joined Kevin Durant and Tim Duncan as the only players in modern history to accomplish that feat.
By any measure, Doncic is on a path to all-time greatness, and Year 5 is generally when pantheon players emerge as something close to the fully formed versions of themselves. Combine that with the fact that no team needs its superstar more than the Mavericks need Doncic to be extraordinary in order to reestablish themselves as one of the few teams that could win the championship, and you have your MVP narrative.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and MVP narrative
Where the arc of a rising legend's career meets the landscape of the league plays a role in the 100-person media panel's decision to mete out the award. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic are both back-to-back MVPs over the past four seasons. They took the torch from a generation of Durant, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook and James Harden, who dominated the conversation for a decade.
Keep in mind, Doncic is the only player besides Antetokounmpo and Jokic to make multiple All-NBA first-team appearances over the past three seasons, and the only one of the three yet to receive an MVP trophy.
Durant and Curry remain on the periphery of the discussion, but the load management both require to navigate an 82-game season in their mid-30s makes it difficult for either to win the award, especially on teams that boast multiple All-Stars around them. (For what it's worth, Durant finished runner-up for MVP in Years 5 and 6 of his career and won in Year 7. Curry finished sixth in Year 5 and won in Years 6 and 7.)
It would take a superhuman season from Jokic to win a third consecutive MVP award this season. Only Larry Bird has won three straight since players stopped voting in 1980. There is a reason Antetokounmpo finished fourth in 2021 after winning in 2019 and 2020, despite another monster season for the NBA's top regular season team (and ultimate champion). Voter fatigue allows panelists to adjust their levels on how much they want to weigh the questions of: Is this the best player in the NBA? Is he the best player on the best team? Where would his team be without him? What do the advanced metrics say about his value?
Fatigue for Antetokounmpo may have faded three years removed from his last MVP win and two years since he hoisted the Larry O'Brien Trophy. It might actually be time to reconsider his legacy in the heart of his prime. He may well deserve to join Bird, Magic Johnson and Moses Malone as a three-time winner.
The question is how hard the Milwaukee Bucks want to ride Antetokounmpo. They eased into their title defense last season, and it cost them a home Game 7 in an early playoff exit. It also did not prevent Khris Middleton from missing the Eastern Conference semifinals with a knee injury or requiring offseason wrist surgery that still has him sidelined. Yet, even Greece rested Antetokounmpo, who complained of knee and back soreness and suffered a minor ankle injury while with the national team for EuroBasket in September.
Luka Doncic's statistical ceiling
The Mavericks need Doncic to carry them in ways other potential conference finalists do not require their MVP candidates to be on full tilt every night. The free-agent departure of Jalen Brunson leaves Spencer Dinwiddie as their second-best creator, and that alone makes Dallas a lottery team without peak Doncic.
The Mavericks traded for Christian Wood, who might enter the season as their second-best player. His ability to space the floor at the center position (40% on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers last season) will be an offensive upgrade from Kristaps Porzingis (24% on 3-pointers created by Doncic in the 2021-22 campaign).
Yet, Wood joins a roster full of players who need Doncic's creation in order to be successful. Tim Hardaway Jr., Reggie Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber and Josh Green combined to make 809 field goals last season, and 89% of them were assisted. Considering Dinwiddie was the only other player on the roster to average more than two assists per game last season, Doncic is the sun in Dallas' heliocentric system.
A double-digit assist average would put both the league's assist crown and a triple-double average in play for Doncic. He averaged 28.4 points (46/35/74 shooting splits), 9.1 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game last season and did not even arrive to training camp in shape. Once he recovered from an early ankle injury and exited COVID-19 protocols in January, he averaged a 30-10-9 on 46/37/76 splits over the final four months of the regular season, as Dallas posted a 35-12 record (second only to the 64-win Phoenix Suns in that span).
By all accounts, Doncic is conditioned to hit the ground running this season, and that is supported by his performance for Slovenia at EuroBasket, where his 47 points in a win over France and three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert were mind-bending. Given his mechanics, Doncic seems bound to see his percentages from the free-throw and 3-point lines rise above league averages. His 3-point shot has already improved every season. Doncic attempted more shots per game than anyone last season, and any increase in efficiency would send his scoring average north of 30 points per game — firmly into scoring title territory.
Westbrook's 2017 MVP campaign removed some of the shine of averaging a 30-point triple-double, if only because hindsight has people reconsidering Harden's candidacy at the time. Harden averaged a 29-8-11 on 44/35/85 splits that season, and then won the award in 2018 with greater efficiency for a 65-win team. If Doncic threatens to average a triple-double and become the only other player besides Nate Archibald in 1973 to lead the league in scoring and assists, you better believe he will have the voting panel's attention.
The intrinsic value of Doncic in Dallas
If Doncic is healthy and playing at the level we expect, the biggest obstacle to his MVP candidacy will be the Mavericks' success. Westbrook's Oklahoma City Thunder won 47 games in 2017, and Jokic's Denver Nuggets won 48 games last season. Every other MVP from the past 40 years played on a team that won better than 60% of its games (50 wins or more in an 82-game season). Dallas finished last season 52-30.
There is no heavy favorite to run away with the No. 1 seed in either conference this season. BetMGM pegs Dallas among seven Western Conference teams with an over/under win total between 48.5 and 52.5 games this season, along with the Suns, Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves. Oddsmakers cannot find much separation between them. They are taking into account the loss of Brunson, but a pantheon leap by Doncic sets another top-four seed on the table.
Grizzlies point guard Ja Morant is the only other serious MVP candidate on an elite team in the West who does not have another star-caliber player to ease his burden. Devin Booker shares a backcourt with Chris Paul. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are returning to Jokic's side. Curry can lean on Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins. Kawhi Leonard is back beside Paul George. Karl-Anthony Towns will take a backseat to Gobert on defense and might take one to Anthony Edwards on offense. Even Morant has fellow rising stars Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., either of whom you would take over anyone on the Mavericks.
In the East, beyond Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid and Jayson Tatum have the ability to post MVP numbers on serious title contenders. They, too, respectively share touches with Harden and Jaylen Brown, among a host of other playmakers (Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon, to name four).
While there are built-in reasons why every MVP candidate better than a 25-to-1 long shot will not bear as much responsibility for his team's success, the only way the Mavericks will be anywhere close to a feared playoff opponent is because of Doncic. He will have to operate on an absurd level all season, and he can.
Historical precedent for Doncic's MVP campaign
Just for fun, the fifth NBA seasons of every MVP since media began voting on the award:
Moses Malone (1979): 25-18-2, 60.4 TS%, 23.7 PER, 23.4 USG%, 47 wins, No. 4 seed
Julius Erving (1981): 25-8-4, 57.2 TS%, 25.1 PER, 28.4 USG%, 62 wins, No. 3 seed
Larry Bird (1984): 24-10-7, 55.2 TS%, 24.2 PER, 26.7 USG%, 62 wins, No. 1 seed
Magic Johnson (1984): 18-7-13, 62.8 TS%, 22.6 PER, 19.5 USG%, 54 wins, No. 1 seed
Michael Jordan (1989): 33-8-8, 61.4 TS%, 31.1 PER, 32.1 USG%, 47 wins, No. 6 seed
Charles Barkley (1989): 26-13-4, 65.3 TS%, 27.0 PER, 24.4 USG%, 46 wins, No. 7 seed
Hakeem Olajuwon (1989): 25-14-2, 55.2 TS%, 25.2 PER, 28.2 USG%, 45 wins, No. 5 seed
Karl Malone (1990): 31-11-3, 62.6 TS%, 27.2 PER, 32.6 USG%, 55 wins, No. 4 seed
David Robinson (1994): 30-11-5, 57.7 TS%, 30.7 PER, 32.0 USG%, 55 wins, No. 4 seed
Shaquille O'Neal (1997): 26-13-3, 55.6 TS%, 27.1 PER, 31.1 USG%, 56 wins, No. 4 seed
Allen Iverson (2001): 31-4-5, 51.8 TS%, 24.0 PER, 35.9 USG%, 56 wins, No. 1 seed
Tim Duncan (2002): 26-13-4, 57.6 TS%, 27.0 PER, 29.0 USG%, 58 wins, No. 2 seed
Kevin Garnett (2000): 23-12-5, 54.5 TS%, 23.6 PER, 27.4 USG%, 50 wins, No. 6 seed
Steve Nash (2001): 16-3-7, 60.3 TS%, 19.6 PER, 21.1 USG%, 53 wins, No. 5 seed
Dirk Nowitzki (2003): 25-10-3, 58.1 TS%, 25.6 PER, 27.4 USG%, 60 wins, No. 3 seed
Kobe Bryant (2001): 29-6-5, 55.2 TS%, 24.5 PER, 31.8 USG%, 56 wins, No. 2 seed
LeBron James (2008): 30-8-7, 56.8 TS%, 29.1 PER, 33.5 USG%, 45 wins, No. 4 seed
Derrick Rose (2013): DNP
Kevin Durant (2012): 28-8-4, 61.0 TS%, 26.2 PER, 31.3 USG%, 47 wins, No. 2 seed
Stephen Curry (2014): 24-4-9, 61.0 TS%, 24.1 PER, 28.3 USG%, 51 wins, No. 6 seed
Russell Westbrook (2013): 23-5-7, 53.2 TS%, 23.9 PER, 32.8 USG%, 60 wins, No. 1 seed
James Harden (2014): 25-5-6, 61.8 TS%, 23.5 PER, 27.8 USG%, 54 wins, No. 4 seed
Giannis Antetokounmpo (2018): 27-10-5, 59.8 TS%, 27.3 PER, 31.2 USG%, 44 wins, No. 7 seed
Nikola Jokic (2020): 20-10-7, 60.5 TS%, 24.9 PER, 26.6 USG%, 46 wins, No. 3 seed
And Doncic in Year 4 last season: 28-9-9, 57.1 TS%, 25.1 PER, 37.4 USG%, 52 wins, No. 4 seed.
Nineteen of the 24 either won an MVP award by his fifth NBA season (Moses Malone, Erving, Bird, Jordan, Iverson, Duncan, Rose), won it in Year 6 (Robinson, James, Antetokounmpo, Jokic) or finished behind only others on this list in that time frame (Johnson, Barkley, Karl Malone, O'Neal, Garnett, Durant, Curry, Harden).
Of the five players who did not meet those credentials for early MVP consideration — Olajuwon, Nash, Nowitzki, Bryant and Westbrook — only Hakeem made an All-NBA first team in his first five seasons. Like Doncic, he made three of them, but was annually competing with Magic, Bird and Jordan for the award.
If you believe Doncic will win at least one MVP in his career, history says it is a safe bet the award will be his this year or next, especially since he enters this season inherently more valuable to his team than his peers.
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Ben Rohrbach is a staff writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at rohrbach_ben@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @brohrbach
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