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Georgia football vs. Auburn: Score prediction, scouting report

Georgia football games against Auburn are steeped in history in a series that goes all the way back to 1892.

From 2017-2021, what’s hailed as the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry matched ranked opponents including three top 10 matchups.

Auburn comes to Sanford Stadium Saturday unranked for the third straight year, a wobbly 2-3 overall and 0-2 in the SEC in Hugh Freeze’s second season.

Georgia coach Kirby Smart leaned into the rivalry aspect for a team coming off its first regular-season loss since 2020, a 41-34 instant classic with Alabama last Saturday.

“We had a lot of coaches that have played in this game and coached in this game,” Smart said. “We got two Auburn alum. We got a bunch of Georgia alum. And the historic nature of this game is very personal. And we had guys talk about that, you know, just explaining what the game means. And I think the players recognized that.”

Smart, offensive coordinator Mike Bobo, tight ends coach Todd Hartley and staffers Jarvis Jones and Jonas Jennings are UGA alums. Offensive line coach Stacy Searels and co-defensive coordinator Travaris Robinson played at Auburn.

The Tigers have played all five of their games at home and will try to win in their first road game at a place where they hasn’t left with a victory since 2005 when Smart was Georgia’s running backs coach.

That’s eight losses in a row in Athens and seven in a row total since an SEC championship game loss in 2017.

“It’s us, 80-something guys vs. 90,000 or whatever,” Auburn tight end Luke Deal told reporters. “I think it’s one of those things that you kind of walk into with a chip on your shoulder. This rivalry means a lot to a lot of people.”

Why Georgia will beat Auburn

Georgia should be angry, inspired and locked in after fighting back to go ahead against Alabama and then quickly losing that lead by surrendering a 75-yard touchdown pass.

The Bulldogs have more talent across the board against a Tigers team with one five-star recruit, freshman receiver Cam Coleman.

Freeze hasn’t been shy to point out what was left after Bryan Harsin was fired.

“Building does take time,” he said. “I think you all are aware of what we inherited.”

Auburn has given up six plays of 40 or more yards — tied for 99th nationally — and Georgia is now up to 33rd in plays of 40 or more yards offensively with six after a 47-yard catch by Arian Smith and a 67-yard touchdown by Dillon Bell against Alabama.

The main reason Georgia will win is that Auburn has shown no signs it won’t self-destruct.

The Tigers’ 15 turnovers lost are the second most in the FBS behind only East Carolina. Their nine turnovers are also the second most.

Quarterback Payton Thorne is completing 59.8% of his passes with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions including a 63-yard pick six with 4:06 to go in a 27-21 loss to Oklahoma last week. Backup Hank Brown has thrown three interceptions.

“It’s going to take pretty much a mistake-free game to have a chance to go to Athens and upset Georgia,” Freeze said.

Why Auburn will beat Georgia

If Auburn doesn’t beat itself with turnovers, this could be a game despite the 24½ point spread.

Auburn is eighth nationally in yards per play — 7.64 — and third in the SEC.

“They think that you're just coach speaking when you talk about Auburn,” Smart said. “These guys have not really, like, they're not getting stopped. They're turning the ball over. Look at the stats of what they've done offensively, and don't look at the points, the scores. Just look at them go up and down the field. They've stopped themselves a lot of times.”

Georgia can’t rely on converting so many fourth downs to make up for their third-down deficiencies. The Bulldogs are 107th in the nation at 33.3%, down from a nation-leading 55.2% last season.

What will Freeze dial up after seeing Jalen Milroe rush for 117 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries? Thorne rushed for 92 yards on 12 carries including a 61-yarder last year in Georgia’s 27-20 win in which the Bulldogs went ahead on a 40-yard Carson Beck to Brock Bowers touchdown pass with 2:52 to go.

Thorne has rushed for 125 yards and two touchdowns on 41 carries with a long of 31.

Georgia needs to shore up its tackling. It had 15 missed tackles against Kentucky and 15 more against Alabama, according to Pro Football Focus, after having just two against Clemson. And it will be without starting inside linebacker Smael Mondon, who is listed as out on Georgia's SEC availability report.

“It comes down to getting correct fits and executing the call,” linebacker CJ Allen said.

Prediction

Georgia 34, Auburn 14

Georgia has owned Auburn in Athens for nearly two decades and this isn’t the Tigers team to change that. Look for Beck to play a much cleaner game after throwing three interceptions and losing a fumble last week. The Bulldogs defense should return to form after the first-half destruction by Alabama and put pressure on Thorne.

This article originally appeared on Athens Banner-Herald: A look at Georgia football vs. Auburn: Scouting report, prediction