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FSU football vs. SMU prediction: High powered SMU offense a big threat to the Seminoles

Florida State football heads to Dallas for a conference showdown with SMU on Saturday.

The Seminoles (1-3) are coming off a 14-9 win over Cal and are looking to build momentum against the Mustangs (3-1). While Hurricane Helene is set to potentially strike the Big Bend as a major hurricane, FSU traveled to Dallas ahead of the storm for Saturday's 8 p.m. kickoff.

In the victory over the Golden Bears, FSU's defense didn't allow a touchdown as the unit played arguably its best game of the season. The Seminoles recorded seven sacks, 12 tackles for loss and allowed just nine points on three field goals, keeping a dynamic Cal offense at bay.

The offense, however, still struggled. Despite an improved running game with Lawrance Toafili leading the way, some of the same issues that have plagued the offense this season were present. Toafili recorded 80 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries.

DJ Uiagalelei had an inconsistent game, but in flashes, he looked the best he's ever been in a Seminoles uniform. He finished the game 16-of-27 passing for 177 yards (11.1 yards per completion) throwing a touchdown and interception.

His 36-yard strike to Ja'Khi Douglas sealed the game for the Seminoles, delivering his best throw of the season to secure the win.

What threat does SMU offense, Kevin Jennings present FSU?

SMU comes into the game after a 66-42 blowout win over TCU. The Mustangs have a prolific offense, posting 375 yards of total offense, including 238 rushing yards and five touchdowns.

The challenge that the SMU offense brings to the Seminoles is the multiple ways it can attack. Be it on the ground or in the air the Mustangs have multiple avenues to attack FSU.

Averaging 206 rushing yards per game and 204 passing yards per game for 410 yards of total offense a game, SMU is a juggernaut offensively. While the Seminoles didn't allow a touchdown in the 14-9 win over Cal, the defense did allow 410 yards of total offense, and there is no guarantee that allowing that much yardage vs. the Mustangs would result in no touchdowns.

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Redshirt sophomore Kevin Jennings was named the starting quarterback in week three, replacing Preston Stone. In his lone game as the starter, Jennings went 14-of-19 for 137 yards and two touchdowns vs. TCU, adding 41 rushing yards. In 2023, Jennings posted 618 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions in eight games.

Running back Brashard Smith gives FSU another challenge in stopping the run. Smith posted 137 yards and three touchdowns vs. TCU and has recorded 398 yards and six touchdowns this season in four games. He is averaging 95 yards per game and 7.2 yards per carry.

Tight end RJ Maryland leads the team in receiving yards with 191 yards and a touchdown. He is one of three pass catchers with over 100 yards this season, Jake Bailey (105 yards) and Key'Shawn Smith (101 yards) the other two.

Can the Seminoles offense find consistency?

Sep 21, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Ja'Khi Douglas (0) catches a touchdown during the second half against the California Golden Bears at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images
Sep 21, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Ja'Khi Douglas (0) catches a touchdown during the second half against the California Golden Bears at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images

The offensive struggles have been well-documented this season for FSU. Averaging 15 points per game and 276.5 yards of total offense, the Seminoles have struggled to gain momentum and get the ball into the endzone.

Scoring two touchdowns vs. Cal, FSU has scored six touchdowns this season, four on the ground and two in the air.

Uiagalelei hasn't had the start to his FSU career that he would have wanted. He is 72-of-126 for 842 yards, throwing two touchdowns and three interceptions. There has been a hesitancy in reads and some missed throws that have drawn frustrations, but the offensive struggles aren't all on Uiagalelei.

Up until the Cal game, the rushing attack struggled. Lawrance Toafili rushed for 80 yards and a touchdown against the Golden Bears, the highest yardage total for a running back this season for FSU. There was more protection from the offensive line that allowed for the run game to get going, something that the Seminoles will hope continues vs. SMU.

Douglas had a breakout game, catching four passes for 86 yards and the winning touchdown. FSU's wide receivers haven't been able to string together multiple good games this year, so if the team wants to keep pace with a potentially high-scoring SMU offense, Douglas needs another big game.

The Mustangs defense allows 317 yards of total offense a game, primarily caught out in the air by allowing 222.5 passing yards per game.

FSU needs its offensive production to increase, and maybe facing a defense that allows for some big plays could benefit the Seminoles.

The key for the Seminoles is the offensive line. If that unit gives Uiagalelei time, or running backs holes to hit, FSU could get closer to the offense it wants to be.

Score prediction: SMU 27, FSU 17

Sep 21, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Jalen Brown (6) after a catch during the first half against the California Golden Bears at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images
Sep 21, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Jalen Brown (6) after a catch during the first half against the California Golden Bears at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images

The Seminoles' offensive struggles cost FSU a victory. While the defense will continue its upward trend, it won't be enough as the Mustangs high-powered offense finds the endzone three times. Consistency will again be an issue for the offense, who will come up with big moments but not a complete game, similar to Cal. While slight improvements will be evident the Seminoles fall to 1-4.

How to watch FSU football vs. SMU

Where: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas Texas

Who: FSU vs. SMU

When: 8 p.m. ET, 7 p.m. CT

Watch: ACC Network

Liam Rooney covers Florida State athletics for the Tallahassee Democrat. Contact him via email at LRooney@gannett.com or on Twitter @__liamrooney

This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: FSU football vs. SMU score prediction, analysis ahead of kickoff