FSU football vs. Miami prediction: Can Seminoles slow down Cam Ward, Miami's offense?
The rivalry between Florida State football and Miami speaks for itself.
An annual showdown between North and South Florida, FSU vs. Miami is a game that holds great significance to both programs. Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell said the importance of this game week goes far beyond what happens within the white lines of the football field.
"It's going to be emotional for everybody. Whether you've been there, whether you've ever been a part of this game or whether you've not," Norvell said. "When we pull up to the stadium, it's one of the greatest feelings that you have in sports. I love the opportunity to go into games like this."
"On the road, it's going to be a very hostile environment. It's one where you work to be your best in that time. Anything that in your past, anything that you've ever done even up to this point of the year you still got to go apply all that you got into the 60 minutes we are going to get."
The Seminoles enter the game 1-6, facing an undefeated Hurricanes program (7-0) that sits at No. 5 in the US LBM coaches poll and No. 6 in the AP poll. Norvell said he expects his team to "pour everything" into this week as FSU looks for a bright spot in a disastrous season.
Miami enters the game on the back of a 52-45 win over Louisville and FSU is coming off a 23-16 loss to Duke. The Hurricanes have one of the top offenses in the country and have not scored less than 35 points in a game this season.
FSU enters the game having won the last three games in the series, but Miami holds the all-time advantage with a 35-33 record.
The Seminoles do hold a better record on the road, going 21-19 when visiting Miami, however, FSU is a 21-point underdog this weekend.
Will the Hurricanes make it a 36th win or will FSU pull off an improbable upset?
Here is the game analysis and prediction.
Cam Ward's "off-script" ability, Miami's offense a massive challenge to Seminoles
Leading the Hurricanes' high-powered is quarterback Cam Ward.
The Washinton State transfer is arguably the best quarterback in the country and he leads the nation in passing yards with 2,538 yards in seven games and touchdowns with 24.
He's a mobile threat, but his biggest strength is his ability to make defenders miss while staying behind the line of scrimmage to deliver a big throw. FSU defensive coordinator Adam Fuller talked about the difficulty of trying to contain Ward when he goes "off-script."
"You try to replicate the extension of plays in practice. He's playing at such a good level, no matter what position plays at a high level, it's hard to duplicate that in practice," said Fuller. "But I do think there's a way to try to deal with it."
Defensive end Marvin Jones Jr. said there are ways to attack him, but he said there is "no simple answer to contain him."
"Very elusive guy, he can make plays we all can see that. Knows how to extend plays, you've got to put in a lot of effort and never give up," Jones Jr said. "The play can go on for 10-11 seconds with this guy, so it should be a good little challenge for us."
While he is an elite-level quarterback, Ward is prone to make a few mistakes a game that allows opponents to create takeaways or get stops, something FSU has struggled with. The Seminoles only have three turnovers this season and the defense has to take advantage of any opportunity Ward gives to create a takeaway because if FSU doesn't, Ward will make them pay.
Ward isn't the only threat as receivers Xavier Restrepo, Isiaih Horton, Jacolby George and tight end Elijah Arroyo all present threats in the open field.
Running backs Damien Martinez and Mark Fletcher are both more than capable of breaking big plays, and that will be a big challenge for a Seminoles defense that has struggled in stopping the run this season, allowing opponents 172 rushing yards per game, which ranks FSU run defense 103rd in the nation.
FSU's offense has to hold onto the football, take advantage of scoring chances
Scoring has been an issue for FSU as it holds the second-worst-scoring offense in the country with 15 points per game.
The Seminoles haven't scored over 20 points in a game since week 0 vs. Georiga Tech, and haven't scored 20 or more in the United States since the 24-15 win over Florida last season. In those games, FSU hasn't recorded over 300 yards of offense, with the last over 300-yard offensive performance coming in the 58-13 win over North Alabama.
There are likely going to be opportunities for the Seminoles to threaten the Hurricanes on Saturday. Miami has allowed 117 points in its last three games and over 300 yards of offense to each of its opponents in those games.
Brock Glenn's three turnovers in three plays were ultimately the difference vs. Duke on Friday, and if FSU wants any chance at upsetting the Hurricanes Glenn has to keep the ball in his teammates' hands.
That also means the wide receivers have to hold on as FSU has recorded 21 dropped passes this season. It's been an area that's proved costly on more than one occasion for the Seminoles' scoring chances.
Whether the quarterback is Glenn or Luke Kromenhoek, the Seminoles have to capitalize on red zone chances and try to create explosive plays. FSU ranks 62 in the country in red zone conversions, converting on 12 of its 14 red zone attempts this season.
Keeping pace with the Hurricanes' second-ranked scoring offense seems unlikely, but if FSU wants a chance it has to cash in during critical situations.
Score prediction: Miami 41, FSU 14
The Seminoles aren't able to make it four in a row vs. Miami as Ward and company turn it on in the second half. FSU's defense keeps things close in the first half, but the Hurricanes have a second-half explosion, like the team has done multiple times this season, to pick up a rivalry win.
The Seminoles' best chance at winning sits with forcing Ward into dangerous throws and mistakes. The first half will feature a Ward turnover but FSU won't be able to replicate it in the second as forcing takeaways remains an issue.
How to watch FSU football vs. Miami
Date: Saturday, Oct. 26
Time: 7 p.m.
Where: Hard Rock Stadium / Miami, Florida
TV: ESPN
Liam Rooney covers Florida State athletics for the Tallahassee Democrat. Contact him via email at LRooney@gannett.com or on Twitter @__liamrooney
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: FSU football vs. Miami score prediction: Can Seminoles stop Cam Ward