Fantasy University: Course 502 — Mistakes even the best fantasy managers make
Many of you are probably familiar with the Dunning-Kruger effect, a cognitive bias in which persons who acquire very limited knowledge about a subject will tend to greatly overestimate their own expertise. If you've ever played in a fantasy league with someone who's both overconfident and under-informed — the best sort of opposing manager — then you may have already enjoyed certain benefits of this effect.
The flip side of this phenomenon is that people who've developed true expertise in a particular field will often tend to underrate their relative abilities. The deeper we understand any subject of real complexity, the more we feel as if we can't possibly know it all — because, of course, we can't. Difficult things stay difficult. But experience always has its benefits.
In fantasy football — an unserious yet sneaky-complex undertaking — you will generally find that the most successful players will also be among the first to tell you the game is a giant mystery. More accurately, it's like a nesting doll of mysteries. No person who actually deserves to be called a fantasy expert would ever unironically refer to themselves as such. There's always something more to be learned, or some useful reminder worth giving.
The best managers in our game are those who are perpetually willing to accept and process new information. With this in mind, here are three post-grad-level tips/reminders to benefit even the most experienced players ...
Long-range planning is a fool's errand
In a league in which pretty much every offensive and defensive unit is just one injury away from collapsing, you should never make plans far in advance based on strength of schedule. Quite often, the defenses we think we need to avoid in September are the NFL's most vulnerable groups by December.
The 2021 Baltimore Ravens are the best example in recent history of a defense we all viewed as a stay-away group early in the season and a punching bag at the end. By the time November had concluded, that team's secondary was absolutely decimated; Baltimore lost six straight games to close the year and Joe Burrow set it ablaze in Week 16 (525 yards, 4 TD). But plenty of fantasy managers who consider themselves sharp players had already schemed to avoid the Ravens in the closing weeks, when that D was, in fact, among the most user-friendly in the game.
A slightly different version of this story plays out almost every season. The NFL is a league that simply defies long-term planning. One of the most common mistakes in our game — made by managers at all experience levels — is to assume we can understand what the league is going to look like 2-3 months in the future.
Never interrupt an opponent while they are in the process of making a mistake
Honestly, this one is pretty good advice outside your fantasy life as well.
If you are involved in any sort of competition with someone you believe is making a critical error in judgment, the very last thing you should do is get in their way. For example, if you find yourself in a draft with a manager who won't stop collecting injured players, there will be a proper time and place to tease them about their roster — that time is not mid-draft. Don't do anything to draw attention to an ongoing mistake.
Sometimes, you will need to lose a trade in order to win a league
Your ability to put this tip into practice depends upon whether or not your ego can tolerate the idea of losing a fantasy trade. Surprisingly enough, not everyone can pull this off.
It should go without saying that the basic principle at work in any trade is that you want to deal from areas of surplus to address obvious weaknesses. Quite often, the smartest and most useful path is to accept a small loss on a trade toward the goal of improving your team's projected starting roster, and thus your probability of winning a championship. Yet, even the most experienced fantasy managers can become paralyzed with fear by the prospect of losing a player swap, because such things always have the feel of a one-on-one duel. Never mind the fact that any aggressive manager is going to whiff on dozens of add/drop transactions throughout a typical season, which is fundamentally identical to losing a trade.
As a general life rule, it's usually best if you can make decisions in the absence of ego and with an ultimate goal in mind. Fantasy managers who consistently approach the game in this manner are going to eventually raise a collection of banners.
That's it, you did it, you've completed our classes and graduated from Fantasy University!
Your dedication to studying more about a game about a game is truly impressive. While our degrees are more symbolic than something to hang on the wall, what you've learned is not. In fact, it just might help in your pursuit of fantasy glory.
Now that you're a graduate, consider sharing your knowledge — maybe not with a leaguemate you want to beat this season, but with someone who hasn't played this glorious game before and could use somewhere to start.
And if you want to review any of the course materials, you can go back to the syllabus and explore at your leisure. But for now, thanks for joining us and good luck this season.
Class dismissed!
