Advertisement

Fantasy Football: Top WR sleepers, breakout candidates for 2024

andy behrens
Fantasy analyst
·5 min read
5

We’re coming off a season in which Puka Nacua and Nico Collins each delivered WR1-level production at outrageously modest draft prices, so the viability of fantasy football sleepers at this position is not really an open question.

If you require further convincing on this subject … well, then it’s possible you may need to repeat a few lower-level classes at Fantasy U.

Just like last season, this year’s league-tilting breakout receivers are likely to be a group of buzzy 25-and-under players who — in addition to their obvious talent — possess strong statistical indicators that suggest serious upside. Some of the top candidates are clearly headed for increased usage, too, like this third-year burner…

Last year, one of the best ideas in football was a deep shot to Shaheed. Those throws often ended in this manner:

Shaheed reached the end zone five times on attempts of 20-plus yards in 2023, catching 12 of his 21 chances. His passer rating when targeted on deep throws was 121.5, which of course ranked among the highest in the NFL. This year, under new OC Klint Kubiak (previously the passing game coordinator for the Niners), we can reasonably expect to see the usual deep shots to Shaheed, along with more quick-hitting YAC opportunities.

Rashid Shaheed headshot
Rashid Shaheed
IR
WR - NO - #22
2023 - 2024 season
719
Yds
47.9
Y/G
75
Targets
46
Rec
5
TD

Let’s recall that the only notable move New Orleans made at receiver in the offseason was to release Michael Thomas. This team is otherwise running it back with Chris Olave, Shaheed, Alvin Kamara and A.T. Perry at the top of the receiving hierarchy. No one should be at all surprised if Shaheed sees triple-digit targets and tops 1,000 yards in the season ahead. He’s been an unfair offensive weapon from the moment he first took the field for the Saints.

Khalil Shakir headshot
Khalil Shakir
WR - BUF - #10
2023 - 2024 season
45
Targets
39
Rec
611
Yds
2
TD

If you gave the average NFL fan a hundred guesses, it’s pretty unlikely they’d be able to name the guy who led all receivers in passer rating when targeted. Shakir caught 39 of his 45 chances for 611 yards and two scores (and zero picks), resulting in an outrageous 133.6 rating when targeted. He had a relatively low ADOT (8.6) and a relatively high average yards per reception (15.7), so you can probably deduce that he ranked among the NFL leaders in YAC.

Here’s one ridiculous example of Shakir’s after-the-catch ability:

The offseason departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis leave well over 200 targets up for grabs in Buffalo’s offense, many of which should flow to Shakir. He’s already established as one of the game’s most efficient and effective receivers, and now he’s headed for a potentially significant bump in workload. Shakir should be a mid-to-late draft priority.

Even by the standards of a position that demands extreme athleticism, Thomas is like a lab-made mutant. He’s 6-foot-4 with 4.33 speed and a 38.5-inch vertical, and all those traits all leap off the tape.

As we’ve previously discussed around here, the elite attributes possessed by Thomas align perfectly with things that A) the Jaguars desperately need and B) Trevor Lawrence has always done well. Thomas was a verifiable big-play machine at LSU, averaging 17.3 yards per catch as a junior while scoring 17 times, earning his first-round draft status. If he approaches his ceiling as a rookie, he might lead all first-year receivers in touchdowns.

Let's try to imagine a version of the Chiefs offense in which deep and intermediate pass attempts are actually caught:

Last season, Patrick Mahomes completed just 18 of 63 deep attempts, throwing one TD pass and six interceptions on balls traveling 20-plus yards. It should go without saying that Earth's best QB isn't actually bad at completing deep shots. The big issue in 2023 was the rogue's gallery of receivers KC was sending downfield. Thus, it was no great shock that the Chiefs used their first-round pick on an outrageously fast wideout (4.21 speed) with a multi-year history of excellent collegiate production.

We're offering no guarantees with Worthy, but there's simply no question he possesses skills we haven't seen recently in K.C., and which the team desperately needs. This is the sort of player who can tilt and reshape the field for every Chiefs skill player. If Worthy enters the Mahomes circle of trust, he certainly has a shot at WR2 fantasy status, especially with Hollywood Brown managing an injury that could linger into the season.

Just for the record, we are not actually promising you another Puka in this year’s rookie class, because there had never previously been anything quite like that guy’s 2023 season.

But if we’re simply looking for second- and third-day receivers who have a clear shot at immediate fantasy relevance, Burton is plainly among the strongest candidates. He wasn’t necessarily a volume receiver at Alabama last year, but he made the most of his opportunities, averaging 20.5 yards per catch and making eight house calls on 39 receptions. Burton has terrific hands and obvious YAC ability:

The rookie is stepping into the No. 3 receiver role in an upper-tier passing offense and should consistently find himself in favorable coverage situations alongside Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Burton has a clear path to 90-plus targets, volume that would make him a near-lock for weekly WR3/flex status.