Fantasy Football Would You Rather: Which offense will deliver a December to remember — Broncos or Colts?
We all know about how hot the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys have been. The Buffalo Bills need an offensive blitz to get to the playoffs, while the Philadelphia Eagles might have the softest end to the schedule, which could improve their postseason seeding.
All are expected to deliver great fantasy performances, but what about teams we haven't been talking about? Those teams that could surprise and shower fantasy managers with points during the playoffs? Scott Pianowski and Jorge Martin each make a case for teams that are primed to deliver at the biggest moments.
The case for the Denver Broncos
One of my favorite things about being in the Yahoo family is when we work together on stuff. I enjoyed the group piece that went up Thursday, for which we all submitted some players who could produce legendary Decembers to Remember. Who's going to win our leagues for us? Who will be driving the bus?
You and I are going to continue that conversation here, Jorge. But the goal in this piece is to look at secondary or tertiary options, the less obvious pieces that are well-slotted for success. What under-the-radar team might become fantasy-heroic the next few weeks?
I'm going to talk myself into the Broncos. It's still hard to say how good they really are. They've climbed back into playoff contention with a 6-1 binge, and that 70-20 loss to the Dolphins feels like it was five years ago. But the offense has averaged just 296 yards per start in the seven-game rally. Sometimes teams do it with mirrors – remember the first half of Pittsburgh's season? This could be another case.
Then again, I have to give Sean Payton a ton of credit for keeping his ship from sinking after the Miami debacle and the 1-5 start. Making this season interesting, it feels like a miracle. Denver held its ground and steadied itself.
And here's the biggest present of all: The schedule is about to get absurdly fantasy-friendly. Detroit hosts the Broncos this week. The Lions offense generally shows up at home, but the Detroit defense has been horrendous for weeks.
New England comes to Denver after that. The Patriots are the opposite of the Lions — all defense, no offense. Denver should control that game.
And then there's the Chargers heading to Mile High in Week 17. When I chose the Broncos for this assignment as we exchanged ideas Thursday, I viewed that Chargers game as a generous matchup. But as I type this, the Raiders have just finished a 63-21 drubbing of the Chargers. Maybe things with the LACs are worse than I realized. Either way, Denver will be a heavy favorite two weeks from now.
I take comfort in the narrowness of Denver's offensive tree. Russell Wilson is usually involved when the Broncos score a touchdown — he has had a hand in 25 of 28 offensive scores. When they strike through the air, the odds are good it's going to Courtland Sutton, a master of winning in tight spaces and near the boundary. And although Javonte Williams hasn't been lucky with his touchdowns, he's still the clear featured back.
And the Williams production has started to pop — over his past six games, he has 125 touches, 18 receptions and three total touchdowns. That makes him the RB18 for that period in half-point PPR, no matter if you score cumulatively or per game.
This obviously doesn't mean the Broncos are the 49ers or the Eagles or, heck, even the Rams. But Sutton is an easy guy to trust, Williams is a safe volume pick, and Wilson is usually the point guard around the goal line, even if this offense has a capped yardage ceiling. You can follow me or not follow me. I've picked my line; I'm feeling Orange Crush. The floor is yours, my friend. — Pianowski
The case for the Indianapolis Colts
What a great pull on that Orange Crush defense of the late 1970s Broncos. Tom Jackson, Randy Gradishar and Lyle Alzado (RIP). Fun soft drink, too. Gardner Minshew’s mustache is a bit of a throwback to the Saturday Night Fever years, too (though I don’t know if he’d be able to get into the discos wearing jean shorts).
Fantasy managers are going to have Minshewmania by the time New Year’s Day comes along because the way this team is going to close the fantasy playoffs, anyone with a piece of the horseshoe will be riding high.
If you lost Justin Herbert for the season this week, Minshew could be a good replacement for the fantasy playoffs. Minshew has attempted no fewer than 39 passes in the past three games, and the Colts are going to need him to pass these next three weeks against the Steelers, Falcons and Raiders. All the games are going to be indoors — only the trip to Atlanta is on the road — and the way the Colts have been giving up points in droves, Minshew is going to have to gun the ball all over the field. The Indy defense has allowed 82 points in the past three games.
The Steelers are fresh off having Bailey Zappe pass for 240-3 against them in Pittsburgh, and the Falcons have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to the QB position. The Raiders come to town championship week, and while they were expectedly picked apart by Patrick Mahomes (298-2) and Tua Tagovailoa (325-2), they also allowed 263 passing yards to Zach Wilson.
Minshew might be a backup, but you could do a lot worse against the Raiders, as we saw Thursday.
Minshew has been locked in on Michael Pittman Jr. the past four games, as the wideout has drawn 52 targets in that span. He has caught no fewer than eight balls and has at least 84 yards in each of those games. Leave him in your starting lineup, and enjoy what happens.
Josh Downs has had a couple of quiet games since he saw 13 targets in Week 12, but he could benefit when opposing defenses slide coverage to focus on Pittman. Alec Pierce? Just in case of emergency. Will Mallory had an interesting game last week, catching all five targets for 46 yards, and both the Raiders and Steelers have given up some yardage to the tight end position, but I hope you have better options at that position. However, as with Pierce, Mallory is a backup to the backup plan in case of emergency.
I know, Zack Moss might've let down a lot of people who started him the past two weeks, and he ran like a horse that lost its shoe: 79 yards on 32 combined carries. The Steelers have given up the ninth-most yards to running backs, and the Raiders are three spots ahead of him. If Moss is starting and getting carries, I'm playing ABBA's "Take a Chance on Me" and starting him. Given that Jonathan Taylor has yet to be put on IR, there is hope that he'll come back if the Colts are in the playoff hunt.
Imagine what he could do against the Raiders in championship week.
So let’s remember the fun factor that comes with this team. A character for a quarterback. A defense that allows a weekly points fiesta. Talented skill players and maybe a returning star running back. Put a saddle on these Colts, and enjoy the ride. Giddy up! — Martin
