Fantasy Football Week 15 RB Report: Playing red light, green light with best and worst matchups
It’s the fantasy football playoffs in a great number of leagues. We made it. Exhale. OK, now that you’re rested, it’s time to sweat every debatable start/sit decision as if your fate relied on it.
In a sense it does — as while flags fly forever, so do bragging rights in home leagues.
Since July, the Running Back Report has been a weekly feature to help decipher some of the more challenging running back situations in the league so that fantasy managers could make informed decisions. Sometimes the analysis targeted the upcoming week, but often it looked ahead a week or two for developing situations.
There’s no longer time to wait for those situations to develop. Every week is a one-week season from here on out. Step into the arena and it’s win or go home — and maybe hear about it from now until next draft day if a decision goes awry.
So for the next three weeks, we’re going to focus the Running Back Report on the upcoming week’s matchups, and that one week alone. And to add a layer of fun, we’re going to call on the childhood game Red Light, Green Light to determine whether players are recommendations or not this week.
No, it won’t be like on “Squid Game.” We have to wait for the real playoffs for the eliminations to begin.
Green Light is for players who have both a great matchup and have a good portion of their team’s rushing share. Christian McCaffrey won’t be found here, as that would be too obvious. Red Light is for players who are hurt by a combination of facing a tough matchup and/or the workload is just not there from earlier this season. There might even be a player or two seemingly facing a great matchup, but just not set up to take advantage.
Let's go.
Green Light
Jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery, Detroit Lions vs DEN
It’s easy to overreact to a tough loss like the Lions were dealt by the Bears last week in Chicago. The Narrative Street people talking about dome teams playing in cold weather was brought out to play.
OK, did everyone have their fun? Now come inside, because that’s what the Lions are doing.
The Lions come home to start an indoor swing, and this is very much a great start to the run for Gibbs and Montgomery. Both are viable options to start, with Gibbs sporting a healthy 180 rushing yards on 30 carries (6.0 YPR) his last three games. He’s 20 scrimmage yards from hitting 1,000 this season. Montgomery has double-digit carries his last five games, hitting at least 70 yards in three of them. He’s eighth in the league with 12 rushing attempts inside the five, crossing the goal line six times.
The Broncos remain the worst defense against running backs this season, as far as fantasy points allowed. Though they have improved in the latter portion of the season, they’re still sixth in rushing yards allowed since Week 10 (639). On the fast track of Ford Field, Gibbs and Montgomery should get fantasy teams off to good starts in the playoffs.
Ezekiel Elliott, New England Patriots vs KC
Since the NFL sure loves its throwbacks, here’s throwing back to 2019, when Elliott saw a monster backfield workload. But instead of toting the rock for America’s Team, he’s carrying the bag for the franchise sporting red, white and blue: the Patriots. And after Rhamondre Stevenson hurt his ankle, Elliott walked into an elite 90.9% snap share and took all 22 New England carries, caught seven passes and finished with 140 total yards and a score. Elliott was definitely eating.
Coming to Foxborough are the Chiefs, who are leaking oil against running backs of late. James Cook posted 141 scrimmage yards and a score last week. Before that was A.J. Dillon for 87 yards and in Week 12 Josh Jacobs gashed them for 125 yards and a touchdown. With the Patriots’ passing game at best a work in progress, Elliott should feast on another heavy workload and has winnable matchups against the Broncos and Bills the next two weeks. Bon appetit, Zeke.
Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts vs PIT
OK, third time's the charm. The first two games the Colts featured Moss in Jonathan Taylor’s absence, the volume was there (32 carries and 11 targets), but the 113 scrimmage yards produced were not the reason fantasy managers got into the playoffs.
If, despite those outputs, they’re in the dance, there is hope this week.
Those were road games against Tennessee and Cincinnati, with both teams allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards per game to running backs this season. Week 15 brings a home date with the Steelers, who have fallen backward in their past two losses, both at home, to the Cardinals and Patriots. James Conner and Elliott both went over 100 total yards in the Steel City, and Moss could make it a third straight back to hit the century mark this week.
Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers at IND
This is another matchup where fantasy managers are being asked to look away from the most recent game, because the Steel City duo combined for 88 yards against a New England defense limiting running backs to 71.5 rushing yards per game. With Mitchell Trubisky again at the helm this week, putting the game on the backs of Harris and Warren makes sense.
That is especially the case against the Colts, who are just bleeding fantasy points to running backs — 26.83 per game, fourth most in the league. Joe Mixon and Chase Brown combined to lay waste to the Colts with 230 total yards and two touchdowns. In the previous three games, three running backs surpassed the century mark and two others got close. Put a saddle on Harris and Warren and just ride them in Week 15.
Quick Hits: Potential for smash spots (non-CMC Division)
Here are some big-name players who are staring down some tasty matchups this week:
Saquon Barkley vs NO: The Saints have fallen apart against the run, allowing a league-high 174.8 rushing yards per game since Week 10.
Bijan Robinson at CAR: After going for 83 yards and a score in his NFL debut, Robinson reacquaints himself with a Panthers’ defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs.
Kyren Williams vs WAS: Five straight games a running back has gone over 100 total yards against the Commanders, and Williams will make it six.
Red Light
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals vs MIN
The current RB5, Mixon is having a very good season in so many ways. He’s fifth in rush attempts and tied for eighth with 42 receptions. He’s definitely doing it all, and his 72.1% snap share shows how much he’s on the field.
Even though in the past two weeks rookie Chase Brown has exploded for 20 touches for 166 yards and a score, Mixon is still leading this backfield and the Bengals are after a playoff spot. The kid may be auditioning for a starting job next year, as Mixon could become a cap casualty in a few months. Waiting on the other side this week are the Vikings, who are sixth in the league at 71.3 rushing yards per game. You’re still starting Mixon, but hard to expect that he’s going to get much in this contest.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos at DET
The comeback from a multi-ligament ACL surgery has been steady, as Williams has been very good this season. The workload has been there, evidence being that Williams has 80 carries in the past five games. The Broncos are committed to the run, not allowing Russell Wilson to beat them. What could go wrong?
The Lions are waiting on the other side, and they’re coming off losing two of their last three games. Detroit has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, and just 61.5 rushing yards per game to the position. The Lions should get off to an early lead with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs attacking through the air as well as the ground. It won’t be easy for Williams.
D’Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles at SEA
Everything should be pointing toward this being a smash spot during the fantasy playoffs. After the trip to Seattle, the Eagles host the Giants and Cardinals the following weeks. After the crucible that was Chiefs-Bills-49ers-Cowboys, any step down in competition must feel like an oasis in a desert.
Yet, there are workload concerns with Swift.
In the past two weeks, big games the Eagles needed to win, Swift had 17 combined carries for 52 yards. The concern is how the snaps are being distributed, as Swift was on the field for 45.5% of snaps, compared to Gainwell’s 49.6%, thanks to Fantasy Points Data. Swift also ran 24 routes, compared to 42 for Gainwell. Even in a smash spot, it’s hard to believe that Swift is going to get the ball enough times to actually take advantage unless he breaks off a big play.
Red-zone work is another concern. Jalen Hurts has 13 attempts inside the five, scoring 10 TDs. Swift has 11 tries and three scores. The Brotherly Shove works, and they’re not going away from it anytime soon.
Kenneth Walker/Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks vs PHI
Since we’re still in the Pacific Northwest for this week’s Monday Night Football tilt, what are we going to do with this Seattle backfield? With Walker returning from an oblique injury against the 49ers, the snap share went back to nearly a 60-40 split, in favor of Walker. Charbonnet received nine carries for 44 yards, while Walker got eight for 21 along with four receptions for 33 yards. Charbonnet caught his lone ball. Add in the murky Geno Smith injury status, and the Seahawks could be staring at a negative game script.
Despite their past two losses, the Eagles are still allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs on the season. McCaffrey remains the highest-yardage ballcarrier against Philly with 93 on the ground. With the playoffs on the line, Walker may be the only starting option of these two, and it would not be with much confidence.
Quick Hits: Potential Week 15 RB potholes
Here are some players who could get tripped up this week:
Keaton Mitchell at JAC: The Jaguars are allowing 66.0 rushing yards per game to running backs, and Mitchell has yet to top 10 rush attempts in any game.
Travis Etienne Jr. vs BAL: On the other side, the Ravens are eighth in fantasy points allowed to RBs.
James Conner vs SF: The 49ers are allowing the fewest rushing yards to RBs (57.2) and Conner could face a negative game script early on.