Fantasy Football Wild-Card Weekend: DFS building blocks, values and a star to fade
Whether you've played Daily Fantasy on Yahoo before or are giving it a try for the first time, this weekly column will take a look at the DFS landscape, revealing whom I like building lineups around, a star to fade, undervalued plays and bargain bin options to help you construct a better team.
Lineup building blocks
CeeDee Lamb ($40) vs. Green Bay Packers
Lamb had 101 catches, 1,366 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns over Dallas’ final 11 games following the team’s bye. He scored 89.3 more fantasy points (0.5 PPR) than the next-best wide receiver (Amon-Ra St. Brown) over that span. Lamb’s average fantasy points per game (23.9) over those 11 games were also more than Christian McCaffrey averaged (22.4) this season.
Dak Prescott got 8.6 YPA and threw 22 touchdown passes over eight home games this year, where the Cowboys averaged an NFL-high 37.4 points per game. Dallas has the highest implied team total (29 points) this week against a Packers defense that allowed the second-most fantasy points to the slot this season (where Lamb runs almost 60% of his routes). Green Bay is incredibly vulnerable over the middle, which is where Lamb lives. He’s worth the high DFS salary this week.
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Amon-Ra St. Brown ($34) vs. Los Angeles Rams
St. Brown averaged 105.7 receiving yards at home this year, and he’s ready for the playoffs. St. Brown saw a big jump in target rate and yards per route run with Sam LaPorta off the field this season, and while the tight end has returned to practice, he will likely be less than 100 percent if he's able to play through a knee injury he suffered last week.
Moreover, the Sun God averaged the fourth-best yards per route run against zone, which the Rams use at one of the league’s highest rates. This matchup is indoors and has the week’s highest total (51.5 points), and Detroit will need to score to keep up with a Los Angeles offense that’s quietly been the best in the league when healthy.
Isiah Pacheco ($29) vs. Miami Dolphins
Pacheco saw his biggest snap and route shares of the season in Week 17 before resting during Kansas City’s meaningless finale. He’ll be fresh coming off effectively a bye and should remain a big part of the Chiefs’ offense with Jerick McKinnon still on IR. Pacheco's been the No. 1 fantasy RB during three starts without McKinnon. Miami is dealing with a ton of defensive injuries, and this could be one of the coldest NFL games ever. Pacheco is a strong DFS building block this week.
Star to Fade
Travis Kelce ($19) vs. Miami Dolphins
Kelce scored just one touchdown over his final nine games this year and averaged just 29.3 receiving yards over his last three. Miami is admittedly banged up, but Kelce doesn’t have a great history against Vic Fangio defenses. Saturday’s conditions don’t look conducive for passing, so if you want to pay up at tight end this week, use David Njoku ($27) instead.
Undervalued Options
Matthew Stafford ($33) @ Detroit Lions
Stafford averaged 284.2 passing yards (8.0 YPA) and posted a 15:3 TD:INT ratio over his final six games of the season despite facing two top-five defenses. The 49ers led the NFL getting 6.6 yards per play this season; the Rams got 6.7 when Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua were on the field. Los Angeles might be underdogs this week, but the Rams also have the third-highest projected team total (24+ points).
Stafford gets a pass-funnel Detroit defense that gave up the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season but the third-most to quarterbacks. The Lions also allowed the second-most YPA (7.8), so Stafford is a strong DFS start during Sunday’s historical matchup.
Tony Pollard ($22) vs. Green Bay Packers
Pollard was a massive fantasy disappointment this year, somehow converting just 2-of-17 carries inside the 5-yard line into touchdowns. He showed more explosiveness over the second half of the season when further removed from his leg injury, and his role remains strong in a Dallas offense that averaged a league-high 37.4 points per game at home. The Cowboys have the highest implied team point total this week, so Pollard’s DFS salary is undervalued.
Demarcus Robinson ($17) @ Detroit Lions
Robinson posted top-20 fantasy WR weeks in four of his final five games, leading the Rams in red-zone (13) and end-zone (8) targets over that span. Los Angeles has been one of the league’s best offenses when healthy this season, and Robinson is locked in as the team’s No. 3 receiver. He’s undervalued in DFS this week in a possible shootout.
Bargain Bin
Tucker Kraft ($10) @ Dallas Cowboys
Kraft saw 90% of the snaps despite Luke Musgrave’s return last week, leading Green Bay in routes run. The Packers quietly had the fourth-best EPA/pass this season, as Jordan Love was a revelation. Kraft is the option to punt at tight end this week at the DFS minimum and in a matchup indoors with a 50+ point total.