The Fantasy Football Numbers Do Lie: What should we question from the 2023 NFL season?
A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy categories doesn't always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes ... The Numbers Do Lie.
Garrett Wilson’s season was a lie
Wilson saw the third-most targets and finished second in air yardage share this season, but 38 wide receivers averaged more fantasy points.
The difference between Wilson’s expected fantasy points per game (17.8) and actual fantasy ppg (9.7) was by far the widest among all players this season. He scored just three touchdowns despite ranking top 10 in red-zone targets and sporting the fourth-highest end-zone target share (44%).
Wilson is one of the best wideouts in the league, as Aaron Rodgers’ immediate season-ending injury was the culprit for all this.
Zach Wilson had the worst EPA/dropback, while Trevor Siemian had the lowest completion percentage above expectation. Wilson racked up the fifth-most unrealized air yards this season, as the Jets got the worst quarterback play in the league; only the Panthers managed fewer yards per play despite New York having stars at wide receiver and running back.
G. Wilson was on pace to record 100+ catches, 1,200+ yards and 11 touchdowns with Joe Flacco as his QB last season, revealing what could’ve been in 2023 as well as what’s to come. There’s concern with Rodgers’ age and recovery from a serious injury in 2024, but Wilson is going to be a top-five fantasy WR with a competent quarterback.
Bijan Robinson's & Drake London’s seasons were lies
Robinson had a solid rookie campaign but disappointed while finishing outside the top 15 RBs in fantasy points per game after being taken in the first round of many drafts. He saw strong usage as a receiver, but Arthur Smith frustrated fantasy managers while barely giving the rookie back 200 carries.
Robinson ranked 24th with a modest 16.0 touches per game, and while one game was a fluke in which he dressed but barely played (he was sick), the No. 8 draft pick never saw more than 23 touches in any game. Robinson ranked No. 32 among backs in red-zone touches, including just two goal-line attempts all year. Tyler Allgeier saw 23% more red-zone touches, so hopefully, Atlanta’s new coach gives Robinson more than a 52% opportunity share next year.
London ranked 11th in yards per route run as a rookie, is a certified terrific route runner and is clearly one of the best receivers in football right now. But he ranked outside the top-25 wide receivers in routes run, targets, red-zone targets, air yards and catchable target rate. Quarterback remains a major issue in Atlanta, but a new coach and better usage could lead to a top-15-WR season for London in 2024.
Tua Tagovailoa’s 29 touchdown passes were a lie
Tagovailoa threw for the most passing yards this season but was barely a top-20 QB in fantasy points per game. A lack of rushing hurts Tagovailoa in fantasy, but he also could’ve thrown many more TD passes in 2023. Tagovailoa’s 29 touchdowns ranked top five in the league, but he tossed just four fewer last season on 160 fewer attempts. Despite posting an elite 8.3 YPA, Tagovailoa somehow finished outside the top-15 QBs in fantasy points per opportunity.
The Dolphins’ running backs were to blame, as Miami led the NFL with 27 rushing touchdowns this season. Raheem Mostert scored more times (21) than he had over his previous seven seasons in the league combined — and eight more than his expected total, given his workload. De’Von Achane averaged a whopping 7.8 YPC and somehow scored eight rushing touchdowns on just 103 carries.
Tagovailoa threw fewer touchdowns than Brock Purdy despite attempting 20 more passes inside the 10-yard line. He led the league in passes inside the five (28), attempting twice as many as Josh Allen (who tossed the same number of TDs). Tagovailoa posted the third-best Passer Rating (103) in the red zone, so bad luck also factored into him not throwing 35-plus scores this season.
Given Miami’s unsustainable RB efficiency, Mostert’s age, Achane’s injury history and natural regression, Tagovailoa will account for more of Miami’s touchdowns in 2024.
Calvin Ridley’s 11.3 fantasy points per game were a lie
Ridley broke 1,000 yards and scored eight touchdowns during his first year in Jacksonville, but he disappointed fantasy managers who drafted him early. He was the WR30 in fantasy points per game during Weeks 1-17, but his usage reveals his season could’ve/should’ve been much better. He was top 15 in targets, top 10 in air yards and top-five in red-zone targets. Ridley led the league in end-zone targets by a mile and ranked top 10 among WRs in expected fantasy points per game, sandwiched between A.J. Brown and Ja’Marr Chase.
Ridley had the fourth-most unrealized air yards this season, as Trevor Lawrence deserves some of the blame. But Ridley also had by far the most near-touchdowns this year, failing to secure multiple opportunities in the end zone throughout 2023.
Lawrence looked more like a league-average quarterback than HIM this season, but Ridley will likely be better in 2024 after missing so much time before returning. Ridley’s 2023 usage reveals real upside, and his ADP will be lower this year.
Tony Pollard’s six rushing touchdowns were a lie, BUT …
Pollard had the same number of rushing TDs this season as Joshua Dobbs despite having the second-most red-zone carries (57). He somehow converted just 2-of-17 attempts for scores inside the five-yard line. Pollard saw the fifth-most goal-to-go opportunities and converted a league-low 11.5% of them into touchdowns. He was stopped at the one without a subsequent touchdown four times this season.
But Pollard’s performance was as much to blame as bad luck. He was far less explosive coming off a serious broken leg that required offseason surgery and given a heavier workload. Pollard had more rushing yards in 2022 despite seeing 59 fewer carries; he had 60 fewer receiving yards this season compared to 2022 despite recording 16 more catches. Pollard ranked No. 39 in Juke Rate and No. 51 in fantasy points per opportunity.
He struggled so much, Dallas completely changed its offense and dramatically increased its pass rate over expectation after the team’s Week 7 bye. Pollard clearly should have scored more touchdowns in 2023, but he vastly underperformed expectations nonetheless.
