Fantasy Football Week 16 RB Report: Red Light, Green Light!
Last week was so much fun playing Red Light, Green Light, we’re running it back. Pun definitely intended.
With it being the playoffs, fantasy managers are surely spending way more time on their roster decisions than in the regular season. Like, bordering on obsessive. That last flex position gets over-scrutinized beyond belief. Quarterback streamer decisions use up so much time and brain power that it sometimes becomes a coin flip as it gets closer to game time. Heads, Gardner Minshew. Tails, Nick Mullens.
Looking back at what came of the running back landscape during Week 15, things look orderly, with Christian McCaffrey at the top of the heap with 39.20 points. All seems right in the world there. Then things get dicey with James Cook in second place during a week when Josh Allen threw the ball just 15 times. The last time a Bills running back put up a No. 2 RB performance feels like the Thurman Thomas days. Party crashers to Week 15's top 10 included Ty Chandler, Devin Singletary and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Kudos to you if you started them in anything but a desperation play.
Let’s take a look ahead to these all-important games in Week 16. Just like last week, players who are must-starts are in the Green Light section, while players in the Red Light section might be better off riding benches because of the matchup. In some cases, however, it will be hard to sit certain players. But we warned you.
Green Light
Bijan Robinson vs. IND
Let’s get this one out of the way right off the bat. Yes, it’s fully understood what happened last week — one fumble, eight touches for 14 yards — and how fantasy managers as a collective are not sending Arthur Smith holiday cards this year. Andy Behrens shared the pain with the fantasy community. Time to focus on what’s ahead, and that’s a juicy matchup at home against a Colts defense that has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards and is tied for second with 14 rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs. They’re also fifth in receiving yards allowed to the position.
Taking a look beyond last week, Robinson piled up 19, 21 and 15 touches in his previous three games; that's 18.3 per game. The fumble-sit from last week needs to be treated as an outlier game; instead, look at how Robinson finished with no fewer than 79 total yards in the games that immediately preceded it. The snap share of 71.8% was very good, and the target share of 19.3% was also solid. If someone were to tell me that Robinson would get touches numbering in the high teens in a game environment that's indoors, with a 44.5-point over/under, I'd take it without question because I know the results would be there. He also gets good-guy points for this.
Jonathan Taylor at ATL
Speaking of game environment, let’s make way for the grand return of Taylor from thumb surgery. He has logged full practices the first two days prepping to play the Falcons, and it’s right on time, as Zack Moss injured his forearm and was absent those days. Taylor just might be walking into a full workload in a game in which he might not have much, if any, competition for carries. Dr. Edwin Porras said that if Taylor passes a battery of tests to get back on the field, he can play. Taylor might not get many passes thrown his way, though, as there might be extra bracing on the running back’s hand to protect it from re-injury.
The Falcons are fresh off giving up 103 scrimmage yards to Chuba Hubbard last week and 135 to Rachaad White the week before. Taylor had a 71.7% rushing share his last two games before he was injured and averaged 72 yards and a score in each of those games. If you’re still in the playoffs and have Taylor, you’re going to be happy to start him.
Aaron Jones at CAR
Another player who might be the lone game in town going into a great matchup is Jones, who returned last week and was thrust into a role in which he received 17 touches for 69 yards. AJ Dillon has been limited in practice the past two days after missing last week due to a thumb injury. If Jones is el hombre again for the Packers, the Panthers might not offer much resistance, as they’ve allowed the most rushing TDs (18) and the fifth-most rushing yards (1,474) on the season to running backs.
Jones has been available for only eight of 14 Packers games, but it’s all about being healthy this time of year. If you have him, fire him up in this great spot.
Breece Hall vs. WAS
This is a start where it might be best to set Hall in the lineup and not think about it until after the Jets have played. The game is not going to make anyone forget Rams-Chiefs in 2018. The Jets are set to start Trevor Siemian again, but this is the first advantageous matchup Hall has faced since the Raiders in Week 10. Could they use him more in the passing game?
The Commanders have allowed running backs to top 100 scrimmage yards in each of the past six games. Can Hall make it a lucky seven? We’re not predicting holiday miracles, but Hall is going to deliver a start-worthy gift to his fantasy managers in this solid matchup.
Red Light
Tony Pollard vs. MIA
We’ll always have the good times from that Week 14 blowout Cowboys win over the Eagles. That was before the sky fell during that 31-10 beatdown Buffalo delivered last week. Now, every time the Cowboys leave Jerry World to play, there will be questions about their ability as road warriors.
For Pollard, this is yet another tough matchup against an AFC East foe with a good defense. The Dolphins are giving up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs and have allowed just eight touchdowns on the ground to the position. The weather will be warmer in South Florida (76 degrees), and both offenses are expected to be passing in a game with the highest over/under total on the week (49.5). This won’t be a week in which Pollard gets 23 touches like he did two weeks ago against the Eagles.
Travis Etienne Jr. at TB
Is Etienne feeling the effects of his heavy workload this season? He is fourth in the NFL with 229 rushing attempts, and since the Jaguars’ Week 9 bye, he has yet to go past 86 total yards in any game. The last two matchups against the Browns and Ravens have been difficult, and it doesn't get any easier against the Buccaneers this week.
Tampa Bay is 10th in fantasy points allowed and is giving up 82.2 rushing yards to running backs. It is an extreme pass-funnel, giving up a league-high 282.9 passing yards per game. The Jaguars also get beaten via the air, so this game looks like a carnival of pass attempts, with only some leftover carries for Etienne.
Ty Chandler vs. DET
That was fun last week, watching Chandler run all over the Bengals to the tune of 132 yards and an additional 25 via the air. He saw 80.6% of the snaps and a 76.7% rushing share. That’s a bellcow workload. Many fantasy managers were wondering why Chandler had been hidden on the Vikings bench for the most part this season, and he could be headed for another start with Alexander Mattison still missing from practice. This week, though, it’s about to be different.
The Lions have not allowed any running back to go over 67 rushing yards, and they surrender the fewest fantasy points to the position. They’re giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, however. This game is going to feature a lot of passing on both sides and not leave a lot of rush production for Chandler.
Jerome Ford at HOU
This one is personal for me, because on two semifinal teams I have Ford as one of my two likely running back starters. Hopefully, your options are better in these important games.
Ford has been under double-digit carries in three of his past four games. He’s nursing a wrist injury and hurt his ankle a few weeks ago, so maybe the coaching staff is limiting his workload to keep the dings and dents from piling up. Last week, Kareem Hunt got seven carries to eight for Ford.
A trip to Houston brings with it one of the great turnarounds of the 2023 season. The Texans had been among the worst run defenses for several seasons running before this one. Not anymore. Last week they exorcised some demons by shutting down Derrick Henry to nine yards on 16 carries. No running back has gone beyond 88 rushing yards against them this season. If Joe Flacco leads the Browns to another victory, it’ll likely be with his arm and not on Ford’s legs.
Gus Edwards/Justice Hill at SF
First off, pour one out for Keaton Mitchell, the electrifying rookie who suffered a season-ending injury. Hope to see you back and healthy in 2024. Now the Ravens will go back to a two-headed backfield of Edwards and Hill. The split might be too difficult to decipher during the all-important fantasy playoffs, when certainty at running back is necessary. Edwards, though, is the first option near the goal line.
The 49ers are one of the toughest defenses against running backs, giving up just 65.7 rushing yards to the position (second-fewest in the league). They’ve also given up big passing games to Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts and Kirk Cousins. If the Ravens are going to have a shot against the 49ers in what could be a Super Bowl preview, it’s going to be on the arm of Lamar Jackson. He’ll likely be their leading rusher as well.
