Fantasy Football Rookie Report: No, it's not time to worry about Bijan Robinson
In this weekly Rookie Report, one of the players who, as of late, has gotten little more than “He’s great, nothing more to see here” comments has been Bijan Robinson. And in so many ways he has delivered on that “generational talent” tag that was foisted onto him during the NFL Draft cycle.
Yet one of the pimples that some fantasy managers have picked at recently has been the lack of touchdowns. Through Week 6, he has yet to score a rushing touchdown. Yes, that can be cause for cries for more, even though his two receiving touchdowns soften it. One even of the highlight-reel variety.
Then some looked at how Tyler Allgeier and Robinson tied for the number of carries (13) last week against Washington, with Robinson totaling 37 yards on the ground. That could lead some to wonder if the Atlanta backfield was morphing into a committee. Yes, the output was a letdown, but don’t go worrying whether Robinson was a wasted first-round pick. Oh, I’m here to tell you that he might be evolving into just what the Falcons declared he would be instead of a traditional running back: an offensive weapon.
First off, in looking at the replay of the game, the Washington defensive line dominated the trenches. Robinson and Allgeier hardly had any room to roam, as their yards before contact were the same at a paltry 0.54, according to Fantasy Points Data. Running backs, even the great ones, need a small hole to maneuver.
What has me excited for Robinson’s future is the way the Falcons used his vast talents. He was positioned all over the field, even when Allgeier was in the game as a more traditional running back. Robinson was occasionally split out wide. Sometimes he ran a route directly out of the backfield. It looked like the starter kit on how the 49ers use Christian McCaffrey and the Chargers use Austin Ekeler.
Robinson was second on the Falcons with 35 routes run on the day, which was just behind Drake London and ahead of Kyle Pitts. The rookie saw eight targets, and he’s second in the NFL among running backs with 32 on the season. The increased passing for Atlanta was because of the game script, with the Falcons trailing most of the game. But this is an exciting workload, and it could lead to even more fantasy points, as we’ve gone on forever in the fantasy community about the importance of running back receptions. And he’s still getting a healthy workload on the ground, as he’s 10th in the NFL with 401 rushing yards. Staying at his current rate, Robinson would compile 1,671.7 scrimmage yards this season. How many fantasy managers would have signed up for that when taking the rookie in the first round?
The matchup this week is tough for the Falcons and Robinson, as the Buccaneers are 10th in fantasy points allowed to the running back. Other than D’Andre Swift gouging them for 130 yards in Week 3, no running back has more than 51 yards against Tampa Bay. Though Robinson could get loose via the pass, as Jared Goff just passed for 353 yards on the Bucs.
Especially considering the current state of the running back position, those who are bemoaning the lack of touchdowns need to be patient. The touchdowns and fantasy points are coming. Robinson just needs to stay healthy to deliver.
Here are some more rookies that need to be paid some attention.
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
The runway is there for Addison to take a big step in his development into a high-end NFL wide receiver. He played alongside Justin Jefferson for five weeks, then got to play the sixth week as one of the lead receivers after Jefferson went on IR with a hamstring injury. How did it look for Addison?
Addison tied for the team lead in routes run with 29, after being anywhere from second to fourth in the previous three weeks. He scored on a 10-yard touchdown pass in the waning seconds of the first half against the Bears. Otherwise, it was a quiet afternoon with three receptions for 28 yards while quarterback Kirk Cousins passed for 181 yards.
With four touchdowns on the season, Addison is a flex play for the most part, even this week in a home game against the 49ers. Amari Cooper just struck them for 108 yards and Marquise Brown went for 96 two weeks prior. Points will be scored in Minnesota on "Monday Night Football," so Addison is a good bet to see some work in the passing game.
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
Those who selected Flowers as the WR43 in the 10th round, take a bow. He looks like a real find and has become an every-week starter not just for the Ravens, but for fantasy managers in most leagues.
The Boston College product has delivered as at least the No. 2 target behind Mark Andrews in the Baltimore passing attack. Last week against the Titans in London, he even scored his first NFL touchdown. Flowers was the leader in routes run (32), targets (eight) and receptions (six). We’re looking at the team’s WR1, and the matchup against the Lions this week looks tasty. Chris Godwin (77 yards), Adam Thielen (107 yards) and Romeo Doubs (95 yards) have had good games against Detroit the past three games.
Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders
With all the attention being paid to Sam LaPorta — Andy Behrens did not ask me to write that — Mayer has been operating under the radar a bit. In the pre-draft process, Mayer was often talked about as the most complete tight end, though one who would help more in pass blocking at the outset of his career. Dalton Kincaid and LaPorta went 1-2 at the position in the draft, though Mayer was right behind. Of late, Mayer is beginning to emerge in the passing game for the Raiders.
Mayer caught only two balls through the first four games, then became more involved in the Monday night game against the Packers with two receptions for 39 yards. Last week against New England, he saw six targets and caught five of them for 75 yards. He ran 22 routes, which was third on the team. The involvement is there, and beckoning is a matchup in Chicago against a defense that is 24th against the tight end. Last week T.J. Hockenson had a 6/50/0 line, preceded by Logan Thomas going 9/77/1. Mayer is a decent sleeper this week.
Post bye-week first impressions
This is a new section we’re introducing, as teams are coming out of the bye weeks. It’s a good time to take a look at how rookies are faring to see if we could get ahead of any late-season breakouts.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
The first wide receiver taken in the NFL Draft, Smith-Njigba had his best yardage output of the season. The 48 yards on four catches may seem pedestrian, but it’s an uptick for the Ohio State product. With 36 routes run, he was just three behind team leader Tyler Lockett. He ran the most routes out of the slot with 25, which, if that continues, will lead to a lot of work in the intermediate part of the field in future games.
This week could be a starting opportunity for Smith-Njigba, as Cooper Kupp put on a slot clinic against the Cardinals on the way to 148 yards and a score. Also, take a look at the Seahawks’ opponents during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17): Philadelphia, Tennessee and Pittsburgh. If the Seattle offense gets going, Smith-Njigba could be a contributor for fantasy.
Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers
This is going to be a work in progress, as the first game coming out of the bye saw Johnston draw just 19 routes run. That was less than half the 41 that the Chargers’ leader Keenan Allen ran against the Cowboys on Monday night. Johnston was also the player targeted on the tipped pass that was intercepted and ended the Chargers’ night.
There’s temptation to start Johnston in fantasy against the Chiefs in a game with a 48-point over/under. The only way this makes sense is as a dart throw on fantasy teams with multiple flexes. Otherwise, Johnston is a hold rest-of-season.
Bye-Week Players to Watch
Here are rookies to watch who are coming out of their team’s bye week.
Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers
Musgrave had seven targets that he turned into six receptions for 34 yards against the Raiders before the bye. He’s a good streamer this week because of the matchup. The Broncos are last with 13.7 fantasy points per game allowed to the tight end. With six teams on bye, Musgrave is more than a dart throw.
Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
There’s a temptation to double-dip and recommend Reed against a Broncos defense that’s giving up yards in droves. They’re 31st with 285.5 passing yards allowed, and last with 14 passing touchdowns scored against them. The opportunities for Reed, though, cause me to temper enthusiasm. Reed’s snap count (29) was significantly lower than Romeo Doubs (50) and Christian Watson (49) in their last game. With Aaron Jones possibly returning, there might just be too many mouths to feed to recommend starting Reed.
