Week 7 Fantasy Football Sleeper Picks: Keaontay Ingram looks like the guy in Arizona
We'll start with the gloomy news first. Scoring is down in the NFL, unders are cashing left and right and a slew of injuries hit in Week 6. And now we take aim at a Week 7 fantasy week that's saddled with six teams on bye. It's a difficult time in the fantasy streets.
Then again, digging deep is often what differentiates ordinary fantasy managers from the winning ones.
This sleeper page had plenty of hits last week. Sam Howell was a top-10 quarterback, Curtis Samuel, Josh Downs and Brandin Cooks all had touchdowns, and Dalton Schultz charted as the TE2. Most weeks won't have that many clicks, but we'll see what we can find.
For this column we look at players rostered in under 50% of Yahoo leagues, so you won't find Zach Evans, Sam Howell, Curtis Samuel or Jaxon Smith-Njigba here. They've all graduated.
Let's see what's left for us to consider.
RB Jaleel McLaughlin vs. Green Bay (49% rostered)
It's common for sleeper picks to offer either efficiency or volume, but not both. After all, if they checked both of those boxes, you'd expect them to be rostered in the majority of leagues.
McLaughlin has been Denver's best runner this year, and it's not close. He's averaging 6.6 yards per rush, while Javonte Williams tracks at 4.0 and Samaje Perine is at 3.7. If you'd prefer to focus on success rate, it's McLaughlin again — his runs are positive plays 55.2% of the time, tops in the room.
Unfortunately, McLaughlin checks in at a modest 5-foot-7 and 187 pounds. He's not suited for heavy workloads. He's only made it to 10 touches twice in his rookie season. Still, that's trending upward — over the last three games, he's collected 31 touches. At least the role is starting to expand.
The Packers' run-stopping has been mediocre; they rank 26th in run defense DVOA. The Broncos may or may not be in tank mode, but they're also in evaluation mode, in scouting mode — it's time to figure out who on this roster should stick around for 2024. McLaughlin only needs 1-2 big plays to pay off your speculation play.
TE Michael Mayer at Chicago (20% rostered)
Careers don't always follow a linear path, but that's been the story for Mayer, who seems to do a little more every week. He ducked in a two-point conversion catch in Week 3, he had a couple of grabs for 39 yards in Week 5 and last week was a useful 5-75-0 line on six targets. Also of note, Mayer is starting to separate himself from teammate Austin Hooper — Mayer ran 22 routes last week to Hooper's nine. The Raiders don't have a wide passing tree — only two wideouts regularly draw touches — and Mayer's recent production is likely too significant to ignore. The Bears present a plus matchup for opposing tight ends, too.
Mayer looked like a potential NFL star all through his Notre Dame career; perhaps his pro breakout is ahead of schedule. Add him as a streamer, but be open-minded about possibly keeping him for an extended period.
RB Keaontay Ingram at Seattle (22% rostered)
Start with two obvious strikes against Ingram: he's part of a three-headed Arizona backfield (and quarterback Joshua Dobbs also runs), and the Cardinals are a heavy 7.5-point underdog at Seattle. I can't promise you game script will be friendly to any of the Arizona backs. But Ingram was the primary man last week, with Damien Williams close behind and Emari Demercado a distant trailer. No matter what coaches say in the lead-up to game day, what they actually call on Sunday matters most. Ingram averaged 5.5 yards per carry during his college days at Texas and USC, and was an adequate receiver. I feel confident he'll get double-digit touches again in Week 7, and that's the key line when we consider deeper plays, especially with so many NFL teams out of action.
TE Luke Musgrave at Denver (26% rostered)
There have been stops and starts to Musgrave's rookie year, but he does have six catches in two of his last three starts. And now he heads to Denver, where the Broncos rank dead last in tight end coverage. The Packers offense has been messy for three games running, and I'm not going to sell you that Jordan Love is a positive to the Musgrave case. But we can project Musgrave with a handful of targets, and they're coming against a defense that can't stop a nosebleed at the moment. Musgrave has a clear path to finish inside the top 10 at his position this week.
RB Jordan Mason at Minnesota (46% rostered)
It's a tricky call with Mason since his game is Monday and we don't know the status of Christian McCaffrey. But context clues point to McCaffrey missing at least one game, and Mason did run ahead of Elijah Mitchell last week after McCaffrey left the game.
Full transparency: What a team does in an emergency situation does not always equal what they do after a full week of preparation. In other words, Mason's role last week doesn't guarantee he's ahead of Mitchell when the Niners have to game plan during the week. But if I had to place one contingency chip on this backfield, Mason's my priority.
WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Washington (23% rostered)
The waiver wire is often skimpy at the wideout position, which is why I think it's critical to devote numerous early picks to receivers during the summer. But we're faced with unusual challenges this week, which pushes Robinson into the conversation. Robinson's work is exclusively underneath these days, which is why he's averaging a comically low 6.4 yards per reception. But if your league has any kind of PPR element, we can't ignore that Robinson is coming off an eight-catch game (he's already clicking with Tyrod Taylor) and 20 grabs in the last four weeks.
If you need a splash play, I offer no guarantees. If a boring PPR-compiling day fits your week 7 needs, Robinson is approved for you.
