Fantasy Football Panic Meter: Is it already time to worry about Marvin Harrison Jr.?
It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to witness and analyze a player's performance. But never fear — Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be — if at all.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Andrews was held to just two targets for 14 scoreless yards in Week 1, while his teammate Isaiah Likely finished as fantasy’s top tight end. Likely looks like a breakout star who went 8-88-1 with Andrews on the field during Thursday’s season opener. Likely led all tight ends in fantasy usage following positive offseason reports that suggested he’d be a much bigger part of Baltimore’s 2024 offense.
It's possible Andrews remains slowed by offseason surgery (Tightrope?), but he had the second-best separation win rate among tight ends in Week 1 (despite extra defensive attention). Moreover, Andrews was double covered on a higher percentage of his routes than any games from 2021-23; he’s also struggled badly over six career matchups against Kansas City, as the Chiefs focus their defense on stopping him. Andrews’ utilization was also encouraging, as he ran a ton of routes and lined up in the slot or outside during 78% of them.
Andrews has been a top-five fantasy TE for five straight seasons and was the most involved pass-catcher in the red zone last year, so don’t panic too much.
It's rare for two tight ends to be fantasy-relevant in the same offense, but this is the right setup for it to happen. Andrews is my TE4 in Week 2, with Likely TE7.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
Harrison had an NFL debut to forget, dropping his first career catchable target and finishing with just one reception for four scoreless yards. The rookie had a 95% route participation mark, but Greg Dortch’s first-read target share was twice as high. It’s just one game that had windy conditions, and Buffalo was “clouding him” on defense, but there were other discouraging signs.
Harrison finished last among all wide receivers in Average Separation Score in Week 1, and he was also last among rookie wideouts in win rate%. Moreover, Harrison recorded the third-lowest top speed in a game since the start of last season. Keenan Allen is reportedly 230+ pounds, and he was faster in pads Sunday than Harrison.
Arizona was among the bottom of the league in pre-snap motion in Week 1, when Kyler Murray went 0-for-7 on passes 10+ yards downfield. Murray was the league’s worst downfield thrower last season, when the Cardinals ranked last in fantasy points to outside receivers. The average route depth for Harrison was 12.1 yards, which would have been the highest in the league in 2023.
There have been 1,730 games played by individual wide receivers with at least 25 offensive snaps since the start of 2023.
If we look at the top speed for each of those player games, Harrison Jr.'s 16.7 ranks 1,699th on that list.— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 11, 2024
Harrison was a superstar and certainly showed speed in college (although he didn’t time at the combine), and he would’ve had a game-winning 34-yard touchdown Sunday had Murray waited one more second looking his way. That would have dramatically changed MHJ’s Week 1 perception, although the other concerns remain.
Harrison will obviously improve, but was drafted as a top-20 pick and the WR9 in Yahoo leagues without any NFL track record. Fantasy managers must be concerned after one week of results.
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
London was a top-25 pick and drafted as the WR10 despite averaging 70.5 catches, 886 receiving yards and three touchdowns over his first two NFL seasons. Kirk Cousins and Zac Robinson were supposed to be big upgrades for the offense, but Week 1 revealed a 36-year-old QB who looked like a shell of his former self while returning from Achilles surgery. While London’s box score (3-2-15-0) was concerning; how it happened might have been more so.
The Falcons had the second-lowest pass rate over expectation and were in pistol or shotgun on 96% of their snaps, with each formation giving a major run/pass tell. Atlanta also didn't run a single snap of play action in the entire game, presumably to protect Cousins. In fact, Cousins moved an average of 3.1 yards per dropback, which is his least movement in a single game of his career by more than a full yard. Cousins attempted zero passes 20+ yards downfield, and London’s aDOT was a lowly 8.7 yards. London and Kyle Pitts combined for fewer targets (six) and receiving yards (41) than Ray-Ray McCloud in Week 1.
The Michael Penix pick is starting to make more sense.
There were some positives to take away, though. London had a 100% route participation rate, which is a big improvement over last year’s 86%. Atlanta’s offense was expected to get off to a slow start after installing a new system and with Cousins getting zero preseason reps. The Steelers were a tough first opponent, including elite corner Joey Porter Jr. shadowing London on 65% of his routes. Moreover, Raheem Morris insists Cousins is healthy, and there is no correlation between play calling and the QB’s health. Still, the panic level is medium-to-high given how much projection was baked into London’s ADP.
Kyle Pitts caught a touchdown, but I’d prefer Brock Bowers moving forward given the new information from Week 1.
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Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Burrow was the QB27 in Week 1, finishing among the bottom quarterbacks in total EPA. Nearly 70% of his passes were short of the sticks despite being pressured at the third-lowest rate of his career. The Patriots have a strong defense, but Ja’Marr Chase saw just one target 10+ yards downfield (only the fifth time of his career). Burrow’s average intended air yards ranks sixth-lowest in the league, which has been a theme over the last two seasons; Burrow has become a check-down artist since opposing defenses started employing two-high safeties at a high rate. He ranked 38th in downfield passing rate in 2022 and 32nd in intended air yards per attempt last season.
We don’t want to overreact to just one game, and Chase has barely practiced (and Tee Higgins was out), but Burrow’s health is also a concern.
Burrow suffered a rare season-ending wrist injury last year no NFL QB has ever experienced before, and he was frequently shaking it out Sunday. He seemingly showed good velocity on his throws, and it was a positive sign the Bengals posted the highest pass rate over expectation. Still, this version of Burrow doesn’t resemble the one who got 8.9 YPA back in 2021, and some panic is certainly warranted given he was drafted as a top 10 fantasy QB, ahead of Jayden Daniels.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
Kincaid was limited to a 2-1-11-0 line in Week 1, which wasn’t what fantasy managers were expecting with Stefon Diggs out of Buffalo. Kincaid’s Yahoo ADP was 58.4, so expectations are high. Kincaid’s fantasy production was cut in half when Dawson Knox was healthy last season, so some panic is warranted after a near goose egg in Week 1.
However, his 83% route participation was TE1-worthy and incredibly encouraging. Sunday’s game had windy conditions, didn’t see any pass-catcher get more than 51 yards on either team and also included Josh Allen attempting just 23 passes. Tight ends struggled throughout the league in Week 1, and Kincaid saw a lot of attention.
Kincaid is a trade target if his fantasy managers are pushing the panic button.
Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers
Johnson was a fantasy bust during his first game in Carolina, and there weren’t many encouraging signs moving forward. Johnson, who’s historically been much more productive against man-heavy defenses like New Orleans, was held to 19 scoreless yards during a game indoors and with Carolina pass-heavy while down big. He was out-targeted by rookie Xavier Legette and had fewer receiving yards than Jonathan Mingo.
Johnson has a major Bryce Young problem.
Young was awful with a CPOE (-15.3) in the sixth percentile and the second-highest off-target throw rate. He was picked on his first pass attempt of the game and his second after halftime. New systems take patience, but Young continues to look borderline unfunctional. Johnson saw the fourth-highest rate of tight coverage targets in Week 1, when the expected Dave Canales magic never materialized. In fact, Carolina had the third-lowest pre-snap motion rate.
Johnson was drafted as a top-100 player, but his panic level is extremely high. He belongs on fantasy benches.
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Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
Olave was drafted as the WR13 in Yahoo leagues, one spot ahead of Cooper Kupp. Like London, there was major improvement projected, so a 2-2-11-0 line was a discouraging start, especially in a game New Orleans scored 47 points. But Olave led the Saints in snaps and routes, and game script played a big role in his disappointing output; Derek Carr attempted just seven passes after halftime, thanks to the lopsided score.
Most importantly, New Orleans greatly increased its use of play action (after ranking last in 2023) and motion as expected under new OC Klint Kubiak. In fact, the Saints ranked third in play action rate and led the league with an 88% pre-snap motion rate in Week 1. Olave’s yards per route run have shot through the roof when motion has been used throughout his career, so big fantasy games are coming.
While the box score wasn’t positive, the new coaching was, so remain patient with Olave.
