Fantasy Football Week 3: Sadly, Miami's star WRs lead fades & busts
Another week, another round of crucially important start/sit decisions. To help you make them, here's a look at six players with bust potential in Week 3.
Something to keep in mind as you're reading: a "fade" or "bust" designation doesn't automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or available options on your waiver wire.
QB Justin Herbert, LA Chargers
You want some old-school, ground-and-pound football? Look no further than this Chargers-Steelers showdown in Week 3, where OCs Greg Roman and Arthur Smith may be competing not for the win, but to see which team can emerge with a lower passing rate.
That brings me to my first fade of the week — Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. There's no doubt in my mind that Herbert is a top quarterback in the NFL who has been unfortunately tied to a series of inept head coaches and offensive coordinators. Unfortunately, now that he has some semblance of stability around him in the coaching staff, their ultimate goal appears to be taking the air out of the football.
Through two weeks, the Chargers have the second-lowest pass-play rate in the league at 42.9% ... ranked just one spot ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers at 44.4%. This matchup screams, "run the football down their throats," and with such a low projected passing volume, Herbert belongs on benches.
Heat check 🔥 Justin Herbert should be on the bench in most single quarterback leagues in favor of some other streaming options like Geno Smith (vs. Dolphins) or Deshaun Watson (vs. Giants). While Superflex and two-QB managers may not have the luxury of streaming, they should certainly temper expectations in what's projected by Vegas to be the lowest-scoring matchup of the week (35.5 points).
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RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals continue to be a pleasant surprise all around this year, and 29-year-old running back James Conner is no exception. A Week 2 goal-line fumble aside (luckily recovered by Trey McBride for a touchdown), Conner has been exactly what fantasy managers hoped for, tied for the sixth-most rush attempts in the league with a 100% team market share on the team's RB rush attempts inside the red zone and five — impeccable usage.
In Week 3, the Lions' defensive strengths against the run could force the Cardinals to lean more heavily on the pass, allowing -0.9 rush yards over expectation per carry per NFL Next Gen Stats — the fifth-lowest average in the league — for a total average of 3.3 yards per attempt to opposing runners. Expect a less efficient day for Conner than we're used to against this unit, who held Kyren Williams to just 54 total yards in Week 1 on 22 touches.
Heat check 🔥 You're still starting Conner in Week 3 fantasy lineups, but consider him more of an RB2 with touchdown upside against this Lions defense.
Dallas Cowboys RBs
Surprise! The answer to, "Which Dallas Cowboys running back should we draft?" is ... none of them, so far. Who'd have thought that 29-year-old Ezekiel Elliott and UDFA Rico Dowdle wouldn't comprise one of the league's premiere rush attacks? Through two weeks, neither Elliott nor Dowdle has seen more than 10 carries in a game, and neither of them has been efficient enough with their work on the ground to overcome that for fantasy purposes; they're averaging 3.5 and 3.7 yards per carry, respectively.
In Week 3, the Cowboys will have their hands full up against the Baltimore Ravens' defensive line. No thanks.
Heat check 🔥 I don't care how desperate I am, or what other running back injuries I'm dealing with. I'm fading this entire Cowboys backfield at all costs in Week 3.
WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
You may recognize Pittman Jr. from last week's column. Well ... he's back! Week 2 proved just as concerning as Week 1 for Pittman, who's totaled just 52 receiving yards over two weeks. That production has left fantasy managers who invested a third- or fourth-round pick in the veteran wideout sorely disappointed; he's currently ranked as the WR69 through the first two weeks of the season.
The biggest issue with Pittman at this point is the volatility of the passing game. QB Anthony Richardson excels on deep throws but has struggled in more of the short and intermediate passing game — where Pittman makes his magic.
Though he's currently averaging the highest depth of target of his career (10.9 yards), it hasn't translated to production. He's averaging career lows across the board with a 50% catch rate, 7.4 yards per reception, 0.96 yards per route run and a very, very disappointing 1.3 yards after the catch per reception.
Heat check 🔥 I promise, this will be the last time I mention him (at least, for the next couple of weeks). Consider this to be a standing warning against Pittman; fade him until proven otherwise. It's unfortunate, but his high-end skill set on the field doesn't currently match his fantasy production, and he is no longer a must-start.
Miami Dolphins WRs
As much talent as I know Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle possess, I'm just not confident that it's enough to overcome the deficiencies of Skylar Thompson under center ... especially against a very underrated Seattle Seahawks secondary with Julian Love, Tariq Woolen and second-year game wrecker Devon Witherspoon playing so well.
In games where Thompson has played at least 25% of offensive snaps, he's averaged 5.0 yards per pass attempt — an average that would be tied with rookie Bo Nix for the fourth-lowest average among QBs with 10+ dropbacks this season per PFF. He's thrown for a touchdown on just 1.2% of attempts while throwing a pick on 2.5% of attempts. You don't need all of these stats to innately know that this pass attack takes a step back without Tua Tagovailoa, but the numbers are even uglier than you might guess.
Heat check 🔥 You don't likely have the luxury of sitting either of these receivers, so I'm sorry to be the Debbie Downer. Both Hill and Waddle have the physical talent to overcome bad quarterback play, but it seems likely that offensive genius Mike McDaniel will scheme around the team's strength in the run game until they find another answer at quarterback.
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TE Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams
Sorry in advance for fading everyone's favorite sleeper TE. Stepping up in place of currently injured Tyler Higbee, Parkinson has performed admirably in a small sample size and could be in for a big role in the offense absent Puka Nacua (knee) and Cooper Kupp (ankle).
Parkinson has ranked second among tight ends with 67 routes run through the first two weeks of the season, and that level of participation should continue moving forward given their needs. However, a Week 3 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers is not going to cure anyone's tight end woes.
The 49ers are allowing -0.49 EPA per dropback on targets to the tight end position — the sixth-lowest value in the league per NFL Next Gen Stats. That's amounted to an allowance of just three catches for 18 receiving yards to New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings tight ends combined. Granted, neither of these teams have bonafide TE1s, but they also had the unfortunate opportunity of facing linebacker Fred Warner over the middle of the field — a matchup Parkinson is headed for next. Warner is one of the league's best linebackers in coverage, already with a forced incompletion, pass breakup and interception through the first two weeks of the season.
Heat check 🔥 Parkinson is challenging to sit if you have been streaming the tight end position, as there have been no consistent options who have popped off of the page just yet. Based on the opportunity for volume despite the inefficiency, consider him a fringe TE1/TE2 with the understanding that his floor is quite low.
