Fantasy Football Draft Debate: What’s your ideal pick number (and strategy)?
Sure, you might think the majority of folks would just want the No. 1 pick in their fantasy football drafts, but it's all contextual — some might even prefer the 12th pick, depending on the season. Fantasy analysts Scott Pianowski and Matt Harmon debate the best way to start a draft in 2024, with one side taking the top-four pick route, and the other picks 5-8.
The case for a 1-4 pick
The first point I want to establish is that draft slots don't have to be stressful. Any draft slot — any draft strategy — can be a winner if you pick the right players. Don't psych yourself out before your season even starts.
But if you're asking me to pick my own draft slot, that's something different. I'll grab something in the top four, please.
Maybe it's counterintuitive, but the fourth pick is probably my overall preference. Then I'm looking at anyone in this Fab Four — Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, Breece Hall or Ja'Marr Chase — and my second-round pick isn't that far from the middle. My best drafts tend to come when I'm not on the wheel on either side, allowing me to stay more in feel with the draft.
I know I'm not alone with my early-round roster-building thought — I'll look for one anchor back and several impact receivers with my first few picks. Tight end is a semi-priority, but probably not in the first four rounds. And quarterback is so deep this year, I'll get to it when I get to it.
Make sure you're giving Hall a fair shake. He spread his wings in the second half last year, and the Jets might have the AFC's best roster. The offensive line is a monster. If Aaron Rodgers is merely an average quarterback, the Jets make the playoffs. If Rodgers actually has something left, this team could go to the moon.
Lamb and Chase probably speak for themselves — Lamb broke football in the second half last year, and Chase has always looked like the type of player who will roll out a 20-touchdown season sooner or later. I put them in a tier over Tyreek Hill (a god, but the age pocket should be considered) and Justin Jefferson (probably QB-proof, but I'd like to see how that plays out). And McCaffrey's versatility and touchdown equity remain lovely things, even if the Niners don't have the usual steamroller group on the offensive line.
Some leagues offer managers the choice to set their draft slot priority, and these are my first four slots of preference: 4-3-2-1. The talent pool tends to get flatter in the second and third rounds, but that's generally not the case in the first, when picking early is usually an advantage.
Disagree? That's why we have a game. Go build your masterpiece, go paint your Mona Lisa. — Scott Pianowski
The case for a 5-8 pick
The good news for drafters is that I don’t see many obvious dark spots or players to avoid in this fantasy football season's first round of drafts. However, one area I’ve particularly enjoyed selecting is the middle of Round 1 between Picks 5-8.
In this range, you’ll find the ADPs of Bijan Robinson and, if things shake out right, the aforementioned Hall, both of whom I consider to be foundational players at the running back position. Robinson and Hall were top-10 scorers last season and are now set to receive an ecosystem boost, thanks to quarterback additions. In Robinson’s case, a coaching staff turnover should also help boost Atlanta’s overall offensive efficiency.
I want to come away from the first three rounds with one anchor heavyweight at the running back spot. If you somehow miss out on both of those backs in Picks 5-8, you can still accomplish the task. Round 1 will have you select a high-end WR1 producer with an excellent ceiling/floor projection, like Amon-Ra St. Brown and then turn your attention to the Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry tier in Round 2. Those players aren’t at the same ideal point in their careers as Robinson and Hall, but that’s why they’re second-round gambles.
If you want to go younger, you can add Kyren Williams or De’Von Achane, who also don’t have risk-free profiles but we know the tangible scoring upside.
I typically like to have a running back spot addressed by Round 2 because the third round presents so many strong wide receiver bets. My favorite team builds are the ones where I have two receivers and a running back locked in by the time the third round comes to a close. As my colleague Scott Pianowski hammered home to me last year, you want to “get receivers who can start themselves.” If you don’t have two by Round 3, I think you’re heading for trouble in that pursuit.
Once Round 4 begins, I typically open up the possibilities to the board. There are more interesting wide receiver picks, no question, and depending on your league, you may even get a Josh Jacobs or Rachaad White to fall to you. At the same time, I won’t rule out considering a onesie position if an elite TE1 is still hanging around or I just like Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes better than the guys around him. — Matt Harmon