Fantasy Football: Breaking down key ADP risers and fallers in Week 1 of NFL preseason
Week 1 of preseason is here and we are inching closer and closer to peak draft season! With training camp news, preseason games, injury updates and off-field drama, players’ ADPs are constantly changing. Knowing the latest trends in ADP can make the difference between snagging your favorite players or getting sniped!
Now through the end of draft season, I’ll be bringing you weekly updates of ADP risers and fallers. See whose hype is on the rise and whether or not we should buy into it, and which players are rising in ADP but not in my rankings?
RISER: Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
The sticker price on Daniels’ rising ADP might feel aggressive but it’s very warranted. You’ll be hard-pressed to find any negative news regarding Daniels as he continues to excel through training camp with an endless highlight reel of long runs and deep bombs. Despite the Commanders’ past struggles, Daniels steps into a strong situation with Terry McLaurin and rookies Luke McCaffrey and Ben Sinnott.
Daniels has rushing upside, an arsenal of weapons and an offensive coordinator known for Air Raid offenses. Daniels will play this week’s preseason game and it’s possible he could rise even more with a strong performance.
Is he rising in my rankings? YES, with confidence.
Admittedly, rookie ADPs are seeing a natural inflation after the rookie performances of C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson (in limited action). But with the depth at quarterback this year, drafting Daniels as a top-12 quarterback is fairly low risk. His few red flags are trumped by a solid rushing floor and an offense that must push volume to compensate for a poor defense.
RISER: Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins
The rise in Mostert’s ADP was inevitable. While it’s tough to lean into a 32-year-old running back with a history of injury issues, Mostert is coming off a career season, finishing as the overall RB2 in half-PPR leagues and leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns.
Despite that success, Mostert is ranked well behind teammate, De’Von Achane. Achane is expected to see an increase in touches but the Miami running back group should continue to operate as a committee and Mostert’s ADP will continue to rise through draft season.
Is he rising in my rankings? NO … but hear me out.
I’m very pro-Mostert and very comfortable drafting him at value. Miami’s offense can factually produce two top-10 running backs and Mostert’s presence is why I waiver on drafting Achane. However, when I compare Mostert to other running backs in non-committee roles, I tend to lean toward a younger, three-down back.
Mostert is still a strong option but target him within reason.
RISER: Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
I’ll be honest — I was a bit surprised to see McBride’s upward-trending ADP. With all the MHJ hype, I expected a slight dip in ADP for McBride. A full season with Kyler Murray should instill more confidence in his production but the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. makes McBride the de facto second-look. That’s not necessarily an issue.
When it comes to tight ends, we want guys who are the first or second look on their team and serve as strong red-zone threats. We still need to see an increase in red-zone production from McBride but his targets should remain strong, well deserving of an increase in ADP.
Is he rising in my rankings? NOT QUITE.
McBride is my TE4 and he’ll remain in that position through the remainder of draft season. While there’s a bit of wiggle room in his overall ranking compared to other positions, he’s unlikely to see significant movement for me. He simply doesn’t offer the touchdown equity that Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews do.
FALLER: Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
Herbert’s ADP was already in a precarious position but, with news of his plantar fascia injury, his ADP is steadily dropping. Herbert has challenges ahead this season with the loss of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and a run-heavy vision from new head coach Jim Harbaugh, which may benefit the team as a whole but likely depresses Herbert’s fantasy value.
Adding the prospect of a potentially lingering injury raises too many red flags for Herbert. While the Chargers expect Herbert will be ready for Week 1, fantasy managers should remain cautious.
Is he dropping in my rankings? YES.
It’s not usual for preseason injuries to linger into the regular season. In 2023, Joe Burrow dealt with a preseason injury that lingered throughout the beginning of the season and significantly affected his fantasy value.
Herbert was already a player I was actively avoiding in drafts, and this injury will do him no favors in my eyes.
Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers
Brooks’ fall is logical and not particularly alarming. Head coach Dave Canales announced Brooks will not play in any preseason games and the plan is to have him ready for Week 3 or 4. A potential four-game absence for a rookie running back that will likely need some ramp-up period is significant.
This is very different from the 2023 Breece Hall situation.
Brooks will have value in the back half of the season. He offers a similar skill set to Rachaad White, who thrived last year in Canales’ offense, finishing as the overall RB4 in PPR despite having just six rushing touchdowns and under 1,000 rushing yards.
Is he dropping in my rankings? Begrudgingly, YES.
While I still recommend targeting Brooks and truly believe in his upside, you must draft him at a lower ADP and as your RB3. Prior to Canales’ announcement, I ranked Brooks aggressively at RB22. But the reality is you can’t start your fantasy season without two healthy, starting running backs — and Brooks will be neither of those in Week 1.
Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Fear of suspension is causing a significant drop in Addison’s ADP but that’s not the only factor that makes Addison’s ADP volatile. We still have no indication on whether Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy will start at quarterback and, unlike Daniels, the true upside of McCarthy in an NFL offense is a bit of a mystery.
Addison will also face a target reduction when T.J. Hockenson returns from injury. If Addison faces an early-season suspension, that shortens his Hockenson-free time period and brings down his overall value.
Addison is a high-upside player but there’s a significant amount of inherent risk in drafting him.
Is he dropping in my rankings? ABSOLUTELY.
Drafting Addison was already a struggle. When you add ambiguity around a potential suspension, there’s simply too much that can go wrong. Addison will likely continue to drop in my rankings until we have further clarity around his legal situation.
