Fantasy Football 2024: 4 players who need to have career years to justify their ADPs
When I set out to write this article, I promise I didn’t intend to make a list exclusively filled with players from the 2022 draft class. Although, considering I still hold a candle for Jameson Williams and Jahan Dotson, I may have a mild obsession with the 2022 class as a whole.
In truth, it’s pure coincidence that four third-year players have significant rises in their 2024 ADPs and must have career years to justify them ... but, is it truly a coincidence?
In recent years, we’ve been blessed with rookies who break out immediately — Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, to name a few. We’ve been spoiled! But before these sensational rookie breakouts, we’d seek Year 3 breakouts.
Don’t be jaded by recent rookie success; the Year 3 breakout is still very real. Nico Collins proved that in 2023.
This year, we have several players who have seen rises in their ADPs due to their huge breakout potential. Let’s discuss what we need to see from these players for them to pay off at their current draft positions.
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
To be very clear, this list isn’t meant to dissuade you from drafting any of these players. It’s to help you understand the type of production needed and the level of risk associated with drafting them at their potential ceiling.
No player exemplifies that more in my eyes than Drake London.
As a fantasy football manager, there is absolutely nothing that anyone can say to talk me out of drafting London. As a fantasy analyst, the reality is that we’re asking for the best-case scenario for London; what we’re really asking for is for Kirk Cousins to recreate a Justin Jefferson-Lite in Atlanta.
Through the first two years of his career, London has failed to reach 1,000 receiving yards and has a total of six receiving touchdowns. The lack of production has been understandable with Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. Despite these struggles, London has shown elite potential and Cousins is a significant upgrade at quarterback. The question is, can Cousins bring out the true big-play target hog in London and make those 10-reception, 172-yard performances a regular occurrence?
Again, we are asking for a lot. London’s ADP has risen to early Round 3 and could continue to ascend. We’re drafting him at his ceiling, but the ceiling has Sistine Chapel potential.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
Much like London, Wilson’s inability to rise to superstar status in his young career isn’t his fault. It’s not unusual for wide receivers to deal with mediocrity throughout much of their careers and to say that Wilson has dealt with mediocrity is an understatement. But, Aaron Rodgers is healthy and expectations are high after a 168-target year in 2023.
Combine the overall boost in ADP for receivers, plus the anticipation of Rodgers’ return, and Wilson is being drafted directly behind A.J. Brown — a receiver who has finished in the top 10 for two straight years. Wilson has a late Round 1 ADP and will need a career year to pay off. He needs to see a boost in receptions, yardage and touchdowns to justify such an aggressive ADP.
Wilson is the unquestioned target hog in the Jets' offense and has topped 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons despite poor quarterback play. But, his ADP is a ceiling play, largely dependent on Rodgers increasing his red-zone opportunities. Wilson will also need to maintain his target share with the addition of Mike Williams, who was just activated from the PUP.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
While Olave hasn’t faced the same level of quarterback struggles as the aforementioned receivers, consistency in targets has been a struggle thus far in his career. Combine inconsistent targets with lack of touchdowns and the result is a receiver who simply can’t reach top-12 production. That’s a problem when you’re being drafted as a WR1. Olave profiles very similarly to a player like Terry McLaurin in situation and production — both clear WR1s with a capped ceiling due to quarterback inconsistency and lack of touchdowns.
For reference, McLaurin’s best finish was WR14 in 2022.
Whereas London and Wilson are being drafted at their potential ceilings with associated quarterback upgrades, Olave has a boosted ADP but remains tied to a quarterback who has consistently struggled with red-zone production.
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Olave must also contend with the rise of Rashid Shaheed. While new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak could increase productivity for the Saints as a whole, a lot is working against Olave to achieve career numbers and justify his ADP.
Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
The 2022 receivers aren’t the only ones looking to make aggressive leaps in 2024. White steps up as the Raiders RB1 with Josh Jacobs in Green Bay.
Is it fair to say you must have a career year when you’ve never actually been a starter? Probably not. But, in White’s case, I’ll allow it because he’s in the third year of his career and his ADP continues to rise as people realize he’s locked in as the Raiders’ lead back.
Unlike the receivers, White’s ADP isn’t extremely aggressive. But, there’s the factor of the unknown with White. We have a small sample size to look at with White from 2023. Jacobs suffered an injury and missed the final four games of the season. During those final games, White stepped in as the lead back and was the RB13 in half-PPR average points per game with two games with over 100 rushing yards. White also had the most attempts and third-most yards of any running back over that period.
But, we should be cautious with small sample sizes. White’s backup — Alexander Mattison — is the poster child for small sample sizes not translating to a full workload. White could also yield third-down work to rookie Dylan Laube, and goal-line opportunities could be minimal if the Raiders’ offense struggles as a whole.