Fantasy Football: 12 risky picks who might not live up to ADP in 2024
Average Draft Position (ADP) data is a helpful tool to evaluate the perceived fantasy football value of a player, but it doesn't always mean you should take someone at cost. Here are 12 names to fade in fantasy drafts at their current Yahoo ADP.
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
Yahoo ADP: 13.1
Barkley unquestionably improved offensive environments with the move to Philadelphia, but he’s a player in decline. Barkley’s broken tackle rate (4.7%) was the sixth-worst in the league last year, and only Dameon Pierce and Miles Sanders had a worse EPA/rush attempt. The receiving peripherals aren’t any better; Barkley has finished second-to-last in EPA/target each of the last two seasons.
History hasn’t been kind to running backs switching teams at this stage of their career, and Barkley’s new quarterback scored 15 rushing touchdowns last season, including 11 from the one-yard line. The Eagles were one of only two teams without a single RB rush attempt from the goal line last season. Philadelphia running backs rank just 25th in targets since Hurts took over as a starter and have seen the fifth-fewest expected fantasy points over the last two years.
Philadelphia has a loaded WR/TE group and a running QB, so targets will be limited. Barkley struggles before contact (and remember, Jason Kelce retired) and simply doesn’t resemble the player he was when entering the league.
No Eagles running back has finished as a top-20 fantasy RB during Hurts’ three years as a starter, which is just another reason that Barkley is a risky top-15 pick in Yahoo leagues.
RB Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
Yahoo ADP: 17.2
The Rams’ offense has the potential to be great if fully healthy, and Sean McVay loves using a workhorse back. Williams has developed into a good NFL runner, but he benefitted from a favorable schedule last season and struggles as a receiver; he saw just three targets over the last three games last season (including the playoffs). The biggest concern with Williams, however, is his health.
Williams suffered a high-ankle sprain and a Jones fracture in 2022 and then a hip contusion, another high-ankle sprain and a broken hand in the playoffs (that required surgery and would’ve cost him weeks) last season. He also sat out OTAs in spring because of a “foot issue.” As a result, Los Angeles drafted Blake Corum in the third round to help lessen Williams’ workload.
Williams is a 5-foot-9, 194-pound fifth-rounder who’s missed 35-plus% of the games since being drafted and was a waiver wire add last year in fantasy. Blake Corum has also impressed, so mid-second round is too high for Williams.
WR Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
Yahoo ADP: 21.5
Adams may be on the downside of his career, but he still ranked second in the league in targets (175), target share (33.1%), target rate (31.1%) and red-zone targets (29) last season. He also ranked first in air yards share (44.2%) and first-read target rate (40.6%) and fifth in expected fantasy points per game (22.0).
However, Adams’ fantasy production has dropped three straight seasons, and wide receivers have historically seen a 34% decline in baseline production during their 11th year in the league. Adams’ yards per route run versus man coverage has fallen from 3.06 to 2.00 to 1.66 over the last two seasons, when he’s started to show real signs of decline since joining Las Vegas. Adams was the WR5 by expected fantasy points per game last year but finished as just the WR17, and his uncatchable target rate is unlikely to improve with Gardner Minshew starting at quarterback.
The Raiders managed just 4.9 yards per play last season, and Antonio Pierce wants to run the football while playing super slow. Teammate Jakobi Meyers matched Adams in top-12 WR weeks (four) last season, and the Raiders took Brock Bowers with the 13th pick of the draft. Adams has a nice floor given his target projection, but he’s 31 years old with the worst QB situation in the league.
Adams isn’t a bad fantasy pick but aim for higher upside with your second rounder.
RB Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Yahoo ADP: 22.0
The final fantasy numbers were there, but Etienne wore down when given a heavier workload last season. His YPC dropped from 5.1 in 2022 down to 3.8 last year, when Jacksonville reduced his workload after the team’s bye. Etienne was the RB3 (18.8 fantasy points per game) over Weeks 1-9 but just the RB23 (11.4 fpg) over Weeks 10-18. There’s been talk throughout summer about the Jaguars continuing to do the same in 2024, and Tank Bigsby has looked far better during camp after a disappointing rookie season.
Etienne is also due for regression after scoring more than twice as many touchdowns last season despite seeing fewer red-zone carries compared to 2022; he scored a whopping five touchdowns more than expected last year. Jacksonville has produced the third-fewest RB expected fantasy points over the last two seasons, and Press Taylor is a problem at offensive coordinator.
I rank Etienne right with Kenneth Walker, who’s available more than two rounds later in Yahoo drafts.
WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yahoo ADP: 24.6
Evans’ ECR and ADP are a bit inflated with him coming off a monster season. He’s no doubt a threat to catch double-digit touchdowns again like he has three of the past four years, but he’ll turn 31 years old this month and is entering his 11th year in the league. That alone is concerning for someone going as a top-12 WR, but his situation will also be different in 2024.
Tampa Bay lost offensive guru Dave Canales to Carolina, who just helped Baker Mayfield have easily the best season of his career. Chris Godwin will also be much healthier and more involved in Tampa Bay’s offense in 2024, including more work out of the slot. Godwin should see touchdown regression in 2024, and there’s a reason he had a similar ADP to Evans during last year’s fantasy drafts. Moreover, rookie Jalen McMillan is an underrated prospect who's impressed in camp and Mayfield recently gushed about.
Evans is being drafted ahead of Drake London, Chris Olave, Brandon Aiyuk, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Nico Collins and Jaylen Waddle, all of whom I rank higher. I’d even prefer Amari Cooper and Malik Nabers, who’s available 40 picks later in Yahoo leagues.
TE Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
Yahoo ADP: 27.9
LaPorta had an awesome rookie season, but he was hardly elite and many fantasy points came from an unsustainably high TD rate. LaPorta finished fifth among tight ends in expected fantasy points and ranked 47th overall in fantasy points over replacement per game. He’s due for touchdown regression and will battle for targets with a true alpha in Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Jameson Williams also finally looks ready to break out in 2024, so the Lions have many options on a run-heavy offense (-3.9 PROE last season).
LaPorta doesn’t stand out among the Tier 1 tight ends, yet he goes multiple rounds earlier than Trey McBride.
RB Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yahoo ADP: 38.5
White is a good receiver, but he remained one of the league’s worst runners last season. Among all backs with at least 90 carries, White finished last in rush yards over expectation and toward the bottom of the league in many other rushing categories.
White benefitted from seeing the second-most touches (336) last season, but that volume may not be there again with rookie Bucky Irving revealing strong skills during the preseason, when he’s produced 63% of his yards after contact. Irving totaled 1,458 and 12 touchdowns over 13 games as a 21-year-old last season at Oregon, ranking first among all qualified backs in avoided tackle rate (and second in success rate).
Tampa Bay’s offense also figures to take a step back with the loss of Dave Canales, so White is a risky top-40 pick.
WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
Yahoo ADP: 44.4
I’m irrationally high on Anthony Richardson’s fantasy value, but Pittman averaged half as many fantasy points during AR’s four starts last season compared to Gardner Minshew. He’ll continue to benefit from Shane Steichen’s RPO-heavy scheme and should eat up targets, but Pittman loses as much fantasy value as any WR in the league when scoring moves to 0.5 PPR.
Another concern regarding Pittman is his target competition. Josh Downs nearly matched his production while sharing the field together last year, even recording more receiving yards and scoring more fantasy points before suffering a knee injury in Week 9. Downs has shown good chemistry with Richardson and is a Reception Perception favorite. Downs suffered a high-ankle sprain in camp, but he’s expected to be ready close to Week 1.
Shane Steichen said I double dog dare you to take a Colts pass-catcher in redraft this year pic.twitter.com/C2m8OkrZBu
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 23, 2024
Moreover, rookie Adonai Mitchell fell to the end of the second round thanks to off-field concerns, though his talent was worthy of a far earlier selection in this year’s draft. Mitchell’s relative athletic score ranked fifth out of 3,402 wide receivers since 1987. He earned targets as a true freshman on a crowded Georgia team in 2021, and Pittman says he’s been learning from the rookie throughout camp.
Pittman’s 2024 usage could look different than last season in a run-heavy offense that will spread around targets. Pittman is mistakenly being drafted ahead of DeVonta Smith and Amari Cooper, among others. George Pickens has more fantasy upside (assuming no Brandon Aiyuk trade), and he’s available 25+ picks later.
QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Yahoo ADP: 57.5
Burrow suffered a rare season-ending wrist injury last year no NFL QB has ever experienced before. He was having “good days and bad days” in May, although dealing with an injury in training camp is nothing new for Burrow.
Injuries aside, Burrow has other red flags. Even if we completely write off his shockingly poor first six games last season (5.3 YPA!) thanks to his calf injury, the overall change in Cincinnati’s offense hints at a bigger problem. Burrow has become a check-down artist since opposing defenses started employing two-high safeties at a high rate. He ranked 38th in downfield passing rate in 2022 and 32nd in intended air yards per attempt last season, and reports out of Bengals camp suggest more of the same in 2024. Quarterbacks can be successful with a low aDOT, but truly elite fantasy production becomes a lot tougher (see: Patrick Mahomes), especially without running.
Burrow was terrific after Cincinnati’s bye when healthy last season, and it’s possible the Bengals pass more frequently with Joe Mixon gone. But Burrow is unlikely to run much at all at this stage of his career, and he’s managed just 6.98 YPA since 2022 (26 games) while consciously throwing underneath far more. There’s risk here even beyond the injury history.
Burrow is being drafted as the QB7 in Yahoo leagues, just ahead of Kyler Murray and 50 picks earlier than Jayden Daniels — two dual-threat QBs with higher fantasy upside who don’t have to face the Ravens, Steelers and Browns’ defenses 35% of their schedule.
RB Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
Yahoo ADP: 71.1
White averaged 24.3 opportunities and 114.3 scrimmage yards during four games Josh Jacobs missed last season. White also outplayed Jacobs, who’s now in Green Bay. But White also has some obvious red flags typically seen with “Dead Zone RBs.” He’s a fourth-round pick who hasn’t reached 175 carries since he was a sophomore in high school. White totaled 17 receptions in college, played just eight third downs all last season and is shaky in pass protection. Moreover, White’s four starts while Jacobs was sidelined all came against teams ranked 21st or worse in run defense DVOA.
White’s preseason usage has also been concerning, including seeing time in the third quarter. In fact, Alexander Mattison has been splitting backfield work through two preseason games. We all remember Mattison being very bad last season, but he quietly finished 10th in broken tackle% (10.6), just ahead of Bijan Robinson (minimum 150 carries).
Antonio Pierce will implement an extremely slow offense, and Las Vegas is projected to score the sixth-fewest points and win just 6.5 games this season. New Las Vegas OC Luke Getsy just got fired from the Bears, and the Raiders enter 2024 with the league’s shakiest quarterback situation.
A two-down back on a bad team with a small track record and a low pedigree — but a high ADP — is a recipe for fantasy disappointment.
D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
Yahoo ADP: 74.9
Swift was the RB24 (11.2 fpg) last season while acting as lead back behind a Philadelphia offensive line that ranked first in run-block win rate. He ranked eighth in yards before contact but finished last in % of carries that produced 2+ yards after contact. Swift ranked toward the bottom of the league in most advanced rushing stats, and the Bears’ offensive line is a big downgrade. He was unlucky routinely falling just short of the end zone and losing touchdowns to Jalen Hurts, but Swift also struggles in short-yardage situations and pass protection.
Matt Eberflus likes to use a “hot hand” split backfield philosophy, so Roschon Johnson could take passing downs with Khalil Herbert mixed in. Herbert ranked behind only De’Von Achane in rush yards over expectation last season, when he was one of just eight RBs who forced 25+ missed tackles on fewer than 175 rushing attempts. Herbert also struggles in pass protection, but he’s been an elite rusher when given the opportunity throughout his career and is likely Chicago’s best ball carrier. Swift’s contract makes him the clear starter entering the year, but this could easily end up a three-way committee. For what it’s worth, Herbert dominated usage with the Bears’ first-team offense during Chicago’s second and third preseason games.
Seattle is the only team that produced fewer RB expected fantasy points than Chicago over the last two seasons, and the Seahawks’ OC is now with the Bears. Swift has a checkered injury history and had never played a full season until last year, so he’s a questionable top-75 pick.
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RB Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans
Yahoo ADP: 92.1
Pollard has admitted he didn’t feel totally healthy coming off TightRope surgery until the middle of last season, and there’s no question he improved down the stretch. Still, his numbers remained disappointing over the second half of the season, and Pollard somehow finished as just the RB22 (11.5 fpg) despite seeing the second-most red-zone touches (72) in the league behind a strong offensive line.
He now goes from a Dallas team that scored by far the most points in the NFL last year to a Titans squad projected to be bottom-five in scoring this season. All signs point to Tennessee having a high pass rate over expectation as well as offensive struggles, both of which don’t bode especially well for Pollard. He’ll also suffer a dramatic downgrade in offensive lines while also seeing greater competition for touches.
Tyjae Spears was the only RB to force 25+ missed tackles on fewer than 100 carries last season, and he ranked third among backs in first-read targets as a rookie. Spears had more targets and 24% more receiving yards while running 75 fewer routes than Pollard last year. Spears recorded the fourth-most scrimmage yards (1,837) his final year in college, where he especially thrived out of shotgun; Brian Callahan’s Bengals ranked third in shotgun rate last season.
The ADPs of Spears (106.6) and Pollard (92.3) should be flipped. Pollard is in a timeshare with a superior back on possibly the NFL’s worst team, so he’s an RB to avoid in fantasy drafts.