Examining Madison Bumgarner's value and strategic use of his no-trade clause
One of the biggest names expected to be available at this year's trade deadline is San Francisco Giants ace Madison Bumgarner.
The 29-year-old left-hander has not been able to work out a contract extension with his original club, making it very likely he will be traded before he reaches free agency this winter.
The only circumstance that might change that is San Francisco playing itself into contention. Based on the early returns this season, that doesn't seem very likely. Only the Orioles, Royals and Marlins are farther from first place in their respective divisions.
So the questions now are simple to ask, yet a bit more complex to answer.
We’re going to look at where Bumgarner’s value is now, and where it could be headed over the next few months. And we’ll look at how Bumgarner’s strategic use of his no-trade clause could impact the race to acquire his unmatched big-game pitching experience.
Let's dig in.
Madison Bumgarner's trade value
It's weird to think this would even be in question. The last two seasons though have forced us to change how we look at Bumgarner.
A pair of freak injuries have dented Bumgarner's reputation as a durable ace, and have left him fighting an uphill battle to regain his complete effectiveness.
The good news is there are promising signs that Bumgarner is about to clear that hurdle.
While his 3.99 ERA through eight starts might not blow anyone away, it's the radar gun that tells a more positive story. As ESPN’s Buster Olney notes, data shows that Bumgarner's fastball statistics are back in line with his most dominant stretch from 2013-2016.
Giants television analyst Mike Krukow has seen all of Bumgarner’s MLB starts. He says right now Bumgarner is the best he’s been in two years because of the increase in velocity.
"That crack of the whip gives you maybe another mile-per-hour on your fastball, but the most important thing is it gives you finish, it gives you late movement and that's always been what Bumgarner's all about," Krukow said Wednesday on KNBR.
"It's the best he's been in the past two years, and that's such a great sign for this club," Krukow added.
So far this season, Bumgarner's fastball is averaging just a tick under 92 mph. The more he's able to let loose and have confidence in that pitch, the better chance he'll have to dictate matchups, put batters away and resemble the bulldog that's carried San Francisco's rotation.
Potential destinations
On Saturday, The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal revealed Bumgarner's no-trade list:
Madison Bumgarner’s eight-team no-trade list, per sources:#Braves#RedSox#Cubs#Astros#Brewers#Yankees#Phillies#STLCards
Bumgarner chose teams strategically; list comprised solely of contenders that might want to acquire him from #SFGiants, not teams he wants to avoid.— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) May 11, 2019
The Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Yankees, Phillies and Cardinals are the teams Bumgarner can block a trade to.
They’re also the most likely destinations for the former World Series MVP. The no-trade list doesn't mean Bumgarner isn't interested in pitching for any of those contenders. In fact, it's quite the opposite.
Further explanation on Bumgarner: Players include contenders on their no-trade list to gain leverage if a trade agreement is reached, NOT because they have no interest in winning.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) May 11, 2019
In other words, Bumgarner can do his own negotiating before approving a trade.
Perhaps he can even work out an extension if it’s a team he’d be interested in joining long-term.
That would put the onus on the acquiring team to satisfy both the Giants’ needs and Bumgarner’s wishes, which could complicate matters to some degree.
It could also make it easier, and perhaps more logical, for San Francisco to target a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays or another contender that emerges.
What is the Giants’ asking price?
As for what the Giants might be seeking in a deal, ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian recently told NBC Sports Bay Area that the asking price will be four prospects. And not low-level prospects either.
That could effectively eliminate some of the teams mentioned above. Notably, the Yankees and Brewers are thin on high-end prospects following their recent trades. It could benefit the Braves though, who are now loaded with prospects and young MLB depth.
Chances are we’re still a long way away from a resolution, but don’t be surprised if Bumgarner’s market is the first one to really heat up.
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