Detroit Tigers' wild card chances: Magic number, what needs to happen in final week
The Detroit Tigers (83-74) have a six-game homestand to clinch a spot in the MLB playoffs and are in a good position in the race to October.
It begins today when the Tigers open a three-game series with the 78-78 Tampa Bay Rays at 2:00 today at Comerica Park. Here's what to know.
What is the Detroit Tigers' magic number?
The Tigers' magic number is a little complicated. To beat out the Minnesota Twins and to make the playoffs, the Tigers' magic number is 5, meaning they need a combination of five wins or losses from the team behind them in the standings — in this case, the Minnesota Twins — to reach the postseason. The Tigers (83-74) have a 1½-game lead over the Twins (81-75), a two-game lead over the Seattle Mariners and a half-game lead over the Kansas City Royals for the second AL wild-card spot (with the Royals holding the tiebreaker).
That means, technically, the Tigers have multiple different magic numbers. For the Royals, the magic number is 6, to eliminate the Twins that number is 5, but it isn't quite that simple, since the Red Sox and Mariners, and even the Rays could technically catch the Tigers and Twins if they lose a bunch of games down the stretch.
The Tigers enter the stretch as one of the hottest teams in baseball with a 13-5-record and five straight series wins in September. A combination of elite pitching and clutch hitting with manager A.J. Hinch pulling the right strings has put them in a strong position. And the Tigers pushed the chips in even further Monday by calling up MLB's top pitching prospect, Jackson Jobe, to join the bullpen for the postseason hunt.
JOBE TIME: Jackson Jobe to Detroit Tigers? Oh man, this amazing week just got even better
Here's a full breakdown of the Tigers' wild-card magic number scenarios.
Detroit Tigers schedule
Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays (78-79) on Tuesday-Thursday.
Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox (36-120) on Friday-Sunday.
DETROIT TIGERS TICKETS: Prices for final six games of MLB playoff push at Comerica Park
Minnesota Twins schedule
Twins vs. Miami Marlins (57-99) on Tuesday-Thursday.
Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles (86-70) on Friday-Sunday.
Kansas City Royals schedule
Royals at Washington Nationals (69-87) on Tuesday-Thursday.
Royals at Atlanta Braves (85-71) on Friday-Sunday.
Seattle Mariners schedule
Mariners at Houston Astros (85-72) on Tuesday-Wednesday.
Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics (67-89) on Friday-Sunday.
Boston Red Sox schedule
Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (73-84) on Tuesday-Wednesday.
Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays (78-78) on Friday-Sunday.
How MLB wild card tiebreakers work
The recent introduction of tiebreakers instead of a 163rd game to settle ties in the standings complicates the Tigers' magic number equation. The tiebreakers are decided based on head-to-head records, meaning the Tigers are technically a game behind the Royals after losing the season series 7-6 and have to finish a game ahead of the Twins, who also won the season series against Detroit 7-6.
The math goes even deeper in this wacky wild-card race. As the Free Press' weekly newsletter pointed out Monday, the Tigers have magic numbers in relation to the rest of the teams alive in the wild-card race depending on how the final six games play out.
"The Tigers really have a series of magic numbers, I think: 10 with Baltimore, 7 with Kansas City, 6 with Minnesota, 4 with Seattle, 3 with Tampa Bay, 2 with Boston," via former Free Press sports editor Gene Myers.
Detroit Tigers' tragic number
The Tigers' elimination number, or "tragic number," is 7 entering the final week.
Tragic numbers work in the inverse of magic numbers. Seven combined Tigers losses and Twins wins would eliminate the Tigers from the playoffs, assuming the Royals maintain their standing ahead of the Tigers.
Jared Ramsey is a sports reporter for the Detroit Free Press covering the city's professional teams, the state's two flagship universities and more. Follow Jared on X @jared_ramsey22, and email him at jramsey@freepress.com.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers' magic number: Wild-card chances, what must happen
