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Denny Hamlin tops NASCAR odds board, where's the love for top-10 Todd? Betting advice for Pocono.

Normally, when we're talking NASCAR Cup Series tracks, we're talking ovals, tri-ovals or quad-ovals.

Well welcome in this week to the scalene, acute portion of the schedule!

Make no mistake, there's not much that's "cute" about Pocono Raceway, a 2½-mile triangle with three corners featuring different banking separated by long, high-speed straightaways that just beg for a mistake every time a driver turns left. Precision and persistence, that's Pocono.

Historically, nobody has been better than Denny Hamlin, who claimed his seventh win at the Tricky Triangle last summer to move ahead of Jeff Gordon and into first all time on the wins list. Unsurprisingly, Hamlin is on top of the odds board entering this weekend.

We're so in on top-10 Todd Gilliland this week at Pocono!
We're so in on top-10 Todd Gilliland this week at Pocono!

But how do we like his chances? Are there better values on the board? And what about building the perfect DFS lineup?

We've got all that covered and more. Here is our betting advice for this weekend at Pocono:

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NASCAR Pocono odds

(Odds according to Hard Rock Bet)

  • +375: Denny Hamlin

  • +475: Kyle Larson

  • +650: Christopher Bell

  • +750: Martin Truex Jr., Tyler Reddick

  • +900: William Byron

  • +1100: Chase Elliott

  • +1400: Ty Gibbs

  • +1500: Ryan Blaney

  • +1600: Brad Keselowski

  • +2000: Kyle Busch

  • +2250: Ross Chastain

  • +2500: Joey Logano, Chris Buescher

  • +3000: Bubba Wallace, Alex Bowman

  • +7500: Daniel Suarez, Noah Gragson

  • +10000: Josh Berry, Erik Jones, Chase Briscoe

  • +15000: Michael McDowell, Austin Cindric, Todd Gilliland

  • +20000: Carson Hocevar

  • +25000: Austin Dillon, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ryan Preece, AJ Allmendinger, Justin Haley

  • +50000: Zane Smith, John Hunter Nemechek, Corey LaJoie, Harrison Burton

  • +100000: Daniel Hemric

  • +250000: JJ Yeley, Cody Ware

Best bet

Ryan: Going to Group 4 where Wallace (+325) has the longest odds in a matchup against Logano (+195), Bowman (+275) and Chris Buescher (+275). In four races at Pocono in the Gen-7 car, Wallace has finished 14th, fifth, eighth and 11th and his average finish of 9.5 in that span is third best. And yes, it's better than Logano, Bowman or Buescher. And after Bowman's win last week, Wallace is even further behind the playoff cutline and is reaching desperation mode in terms of a win.

Bubba Wallace has been pretty good at Pocono in the past three years.
Bubba Wallace has been pretty good at Pocono in the past three years.

Ken: Can't win big without taking some chances, you know. I don't know if it's the "best" bet, but for the price, I like the gamble here. Give me Front Row Motorsports at +10,000. That gives me the hungry and increasingly capable Michael McDowell, along with Todd Gilliland, who's been running so much better lately and leading some laps here and there. Separately, they're each +15000, but I feel better with them as tag-team.

Top 10

Ryan: I'm tired of fighting it. Gilliland is +425 and all he's done in the last six races is register the fourth-best average finish among all Cup Series full time drivers. Dude is on a heater, let's ride it.

Ken: As I was saying ... I'm gonna tag along on this one and take Top-10 Todd!

Top 5

Ryan: I'm gonna go with Gibbs (+230) here. He finished fifth last year and on a Toyota-dominant track and with good speed under him, he's a threat to win on Sunday.

Mar 10, 2024; Avondale, Arizona, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Michael McDowell (34) during the Shriners Childrens 500 at Phoenix Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 10, 2024; Avondale, Arizona, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Michael McDowell (34) during the Shriners Childrens 500 at Phoenix Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Ken: Sticking to my guns from above and taking McDowell at +1750.

Driver to fade

Ryan: First ... a moment of back-patting after we both picked Shane van Gisbergen in this category last week. He finished 40th.

OK, this week, I don't think there's as obvious a candidate, but in terms of winning, I'll fade Bell, despite his position of third on the board. He's been good here, I think he's a likely top-10 candidate, I just don't like him quite as much as a few others.

Martin Truex Jr. is currently limping toward retirement at season's end.
Martin Truex Jr. is currently limping toward retirement at season's end.

Ken: I'm not budging off Martin Truex Jr., who's playing out the string and inching toward the sunset of his career. He's had one top 10 (ONE) since Cinco de Mayo, and that was a ninth in the New Hampshire rain.

Winner

Ryan: Earlier this week, I picked Hamlin. However, I'm audibling out of that and taking Reddick (+750), who has the best Gen-7 average here (sixth) and is riding back-to-back runner ups coming in. He's due and he's fast.

Just when you thought it was safe ... William Byron may just win again!
Just when you thought it was safe ... William Byron may just win again!

Ken: I guess I'll keep beating this horse, too. William Byron, who's way overdue for his fourth win of 2024. He slipped to 14th last year at Pocono, but only after leading 60 laps. What about my Front Row Motorsports pick earlier? What, you never heard of hedging your bets?

NASCAR DFS picks

  • Tyler Reddick ($9,800): After two straight second-place finishes he's due. And nobody has brought it home better averaging the last four Pocono races out than Reddick.

  • Chase Elliott ($9,500): The 2022 winner of the event. Even last year, which by all measurables was off season for Elliott, he drove from 35th to finish 10th.

  • Ty Gibbs ($9,000): We'll save you with the he's-overdue-for-a-win talk. Toyotas are fast here and Gibbs has become a top-10 stalwart. Almost as someone a little further down this list!

  • Bubba Wallace ($7,600): Repeating that Toyota speed thing. And Bubba is more than capable at Pocono.

  • Michael McDowell ($6,900): If not for Penske's recent rash of wins, would Front Row be the standard bearer for Ford speed in recent weeks? We're not fighting it anymore and McDowell hasn't finished worse than 19th in the last four stops at Pocono.

  • Todd Gilliland ($6,800): We're convinced. This guy is staying in this lineup until further notice.

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR odds, best bets, picks, predictions and DFS lineup for Pocono