ORCHARD PARK - There was a thought that was getting bandied about by fans and some media back in early December when the Buffalo Bills were 6-6 and looking like they had no chance to make a fifth consecutive postseason appearance.

It went something like this: “Has the Bills’ Super Bowl window closed?”

After they lost in overtime to the Eagles, their fifth defeat in eight games which put them three games behind AFC East leader Miami and plunged them to 11th place in the conference standings, I tended to agree with that premise, knowing what the upcoming offseason was going to look like.

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But then they rallied, as they have been known to do, and won their last five regular-season games to steal the division from the Dolphins and leaped all the way to the No. 2 seed and I changed my mind.

At that point, with at least one home playoff game and probably two, the Super Bowl window felt like it was still open and primed for the Bills to slip through. Despite all the scar tissue I have from covering this team for four decades, I allowed myself to believe this might be the year they at least get there, and maybe, just maybe, win it. Destiny seemed to be on their side.

Silly me.

They handled the crappy Steelers without too much trouble, but then another round of defensive injuries struck and they ultimately failed, yet again, to beat the relentlessly annoying Chiefs in the postseason, this time suffering the painful indignity of losing to them at Highmark Stadium, a result that surely had Midwesterners mocking the Bills.

Having blown this opportunity, just like they blew it in 2022 when they lost at home in the divisional round to the Bengals, it’s pretty tough to make the argument that Buffalo’s Super Bowl window is still open because it’s simply not true. Even with superstar quarterback Josh Allen at the helm, it’s closed for at least the foreseeable future.

What Bills players said about the Super Bowl window

Monday, no one inside the Bills’ locker room who is expected to return in 2024 - and believe me, that number is smaller than in a normal year - would dare say the window has closed. Players, ever the optimists and believers, are never going to admit that, nor will coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane when they speak to reporters Tuesday.

The most optimistic of them all, of course, is Allen who said of the window being closed, “No, not at all. I believe in what we've got going on here and the people that are in charge. I believe in myself. And that'll never change.”

But edge rusher Leonard Floyd, who most likely won’t be here in 2024, didn’t mince words. When he was asked if Sunday was a wasted opportunity, the man who won a Super Bowl in 2021 with Von Miller in Los Angeles said, “Yeah, in the sense of the Super Bowl window is small and when you get in those situations, you’ve got to get the job done to get to the game, the big game. It’s a moment you can’t pass up.”

That’s exactly what the Bills did, though. Again. And now you wonder when will be the next time it knocks on their door.

Buffalo’s best chance to make it to the Super Bowl was 2021, a season similar to this one when it was going nowhere at 7-6 before suddenly catching fire, then went to Kansas City and had the Chiefs beaten until those fateful 13 seconds. We can say with the utmost certainty today that that loss changed the course of their future.

Last year they won 13 of 16 regular-season games, but that team limped into the postseason weighed down by so many things, not the least of which was the Damar Hamlin near-tragedy, and they were horrible in their loss to the Bengals.

And now this year, even with so much momentum built up from their 2021-like six-game winning streak, they found a way to fall flat on their collective face.

Salary cap, contract issues cloud Buffalo Bills future

All of which leads to massive uncertainty heading into the offseason with Floyd and 22 other players eligible for unrestricted free agency, plus a nightmarish salary cap situation which sports contract website Spotrac.com projects the Bills at $43 million over the estimated 2024 cap.

More: Buffalo Bills offseason preview: 2024 schedule, draft picks, free agents, salary cap

Sure, you can always massage the cap. They can continue to restructure contracts and push money down the road, but even that is not going to provide them enough capital to re-sign many of their own free agents, let alone go out and spend big money on other teams’ free agents.

Allen’s contract extension finally becomes a burden in 2024 as it will count - at least initially - $47.1 million, nearly one-fifth of the Bills' payroll as it relates to the cap. The Bills will almost certainly lessen that figure by converting as much as $20 million of base salary into a bonus, but of course that means that bonus has to be pushed into the future.

They could do that with a couple other players, but there’s only so much relief to gain and Beane is going to have to shop in the bargain aisle in his effort to improve the roster, and then he’s going to have to hit multiple home runs in the draft, meaning finding players who can contribute immediately, some as starters.

That’s a sure-fire recipe for the Bills taking a step back next season.

“Worrisome is not the word,” said center Mitch Morse regarding the future. “You understand that this is a business and you understand that business decisions just have to be made. That’s why after this game last night it was so crushing because there’s so many decisions looming and this was the last time that this team is going to be together.

“That’s really where my mind’s at. Anything else is out of my control. Thank God I’m not the decision maker in that department. However it rolls out, I’m just privileged to be a part of this past team and privileged to just to see how that group went and we’ll see what 2024 brings for the Buffalo Bills.”

Assuming Morse is still here - he has one year left on a contract that will take up $11.7 million of cap space, but would give the Bills $8.7 million in cap savings if he’s released - what 2024 might bring for the Bills could potentially be disappointment the likes of which this fan base hasn’t experienced since Allen’s rookie year, the last time Buffalo missed the postseason.

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Buffalo Bills face uphill battle in 2024 as contract issues build