Bills 2023 offense grades: Josh Allen makes MVP case after leading one of NFL's top offenses
ORCHARD PARK - Sean McDermott did something for the first time in his seven-year tenure as head coach of the Buffalo Bills: He fired an assistant in the middle of the season.
On Nov. 14, hours after a galling home loss to the Broncos on Monday Night Football that dropped the Bills to 5-5, McDermott canned offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey because he felt the offense had grown stagnant and needed a fresh perspective.
Quarterbacks coach Joe Brady - who only a few years earlier was considered a rising OC star in the NFL before he flamed out and was fired halfway through his second season with the Panthers - was handed the keys to the Buffalo offense. Mind you, this offense wasn’t exactly conjuring memories of the playoff drought Bills, but McDermott just sensed Dorsey wasn’t getting all that he could out of a unit led by one of the NFL’s best players, Josh Allen, and a change needed to be made.
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“It wasn’t, honestly, a decision I wanted to make in terms of there’s someone’s livelihood at stake, and their family, and people I care deeply about, like I do my entire staff,” McDermott said last week. “But my job is to do what is best for the team and that’s what I felt I needed to do that was best for the team.”
Brady stepped in and performed admirably enough and was rewarded Sunday when the Bills stripped the interim tag off, keeping the talented and respected 34-year-old in the building at least for 2024.
Statistically, the numbers between Dorsey’s 10 games and Brady’s nine (counting two in the postseason) aren’t really that different. The broad stroke takeaway is that under Brady, the Bills committed more to the run game and it generally succeeded, especially in his turning Allen loose.
On the flip side, the passing game took a little dip, and No. 1 wide receiver Stefon Diggs - who was already starting to hit a slide before Dorsey moved on - was mostly a non-factor once Brady took over.
“It wasn’t his first time calling plays or anything like that, it was his first time with Josh calling the plays,” general manager Brandon Beane said of Brady, expressing his satisfaction with how the changeover went. “Like anything, that should continue to get better. But I really appreciated the communication I saw between the two of those guys, the collaboration.”
Despite the OC change, and plenty of grumbling from fans and media, the final numbers show that the Bills’ offense remained one of the best in the NFL in 2023. In the regular season the Bills ranked sixth in scoring (26.5), fourth in total yards (374.5), fifth in yards per play (5.7), seventh in rushing (130.1), eighth in passing (244.4), third in first downs per game (22.4), sixth in red zone touchdown percentage (63.1%), and No. 1 in in third-down conversions (49.7%).
On their 165 possessions, the Bills ranked fifth in average yards per drive (38.5), ninth in percentage of drives that ended with a score (44.2%), and sixth in TD drives (30.9%). Undeniably, that’s all pretty good and bodes well for 2024 when Brady will have almost the entire unit returning.
The one bugaboo, of course, was turnovers, though that dropped dramatically after Brady took over. In the first 10 games the Bills had 18 giveaways but had 10 in the final seven regular season games and none in the postseason. All told, the 28 turnovers were tied for seventh-worst in the league and were tied for worst (with the Chiefs) among the 14 playoff teams.
“I think, all signs are still pointing up with this team,” Allen said. “I know, it feels bleak, and there’s probably going to be a lot of change, whether it’s personnel, guys coming back, guys not playing again. That’s all speculation. I believe in what we’ve got going on here and the people that are in charge. I believe in myself and that’ll never change.”
Here are my final unit grades for the Bills offense:
Quarterbacks: A
Allen struggled with turnovers early in the season and then reined that in a bit in the second half of the year, continuing into the postseason when he had none. Still, his 18 interceptions were second-most in the NFL behind only Washington’s Sam Howell.
Beyond that, I thought he was great and if I had a vote for league MVP, he’s my choice over the presumptive winner, Lamar Jackson. Allen produced a league-high 44 touchdowns (plus seven in the postseason), which were six more than runner-up Jalen Hurts of the Eagles and Dak Prescott of the Cowboys (38 each), and 15 more than Jackson. He threw for 29 TDs, which tied for fifth-most, and ran for 15, which tied Hurts for No. 1, a total that also set an NFL record for a quarterback.
Allen’s 4,306 passing yards were his third-best total in six years, he completed 66.5% of his passes, which was his second-best mark, and he was sacked on a league-low 4% of his pass attempts. In leading the Bills to their fifth straight season with double-digit victories, he engineered four game-winning fourth-quarter drives, three of those coming in the final five games when the Bills were playing for their playoff life.
Of the Bills' 357 first downs, Allen was responsible for 256, and of the Bills’ 6,366 net yards, Allen produced 4,678, which comes out to 73.4% of the total offense. By comparison, Jackson accounted for 67.9% of the Ravens offense.
Running backs: B+
James Cook surprised me with his breakout performance. You saw the flashes in the second half of 2022 after a very slow beginning to his rookie season, but with Devin Singletary out of the way, Cook took ownership of the lead back role and excelled. He finished fourth in the NFL with 1,122 rushing yards and sixth in yards gained from scrimmage with 1,567.
His 281 touches were a massive total for a player who had 297 total during his four-year career at Georgia, and only 110 as an NFL rookie. And despite weighing only 190 pounds, he held up and played all 19 games counting the postseason. Thanks to a superb season from the offensive line, Cook was able to run effectively between the tackles, which was something one would not have expected. According to Pro Football Focus, he gained 540 yards on plays between the tackles and averaged 4.39 yards on those attempts.
Cook also helped in the pass game as he caught 44 of 54 targets for 445 yards and four TDs. He’s an option the Bills need to develop further in 2024. One area where he needs to improve, though, is ball security. In addition to four fumbles (two lost), he dropped six passes, three of which would have been walk-in touchdowns.
Because Cook is such a poor pass protector, Latavius Murray played far too much. He provided 300 yards rushing, 119 receiving, scored four TDs and achieved 27 first downs, but he fell way off in the second half. Before getting hurt in Week 6, Damien Harris did very little, but Ty Johnson stepped into the No. 3 role after that and he was a nice surprise in a limited role.
Wide receivers: B-
Buffalo’s lack of explosive plays in the passing game was problematic. For the season, the Bills had only 49 pass plays of 20 yards or more, which ranked 19th, while their nine plays of 40 yards or more ranked tied for 13th. And in terms of first downs achieved by the pass, the Bills had 199 which tied for 12th. All of those figures were down from 2022.
This was directly attributable to the need for speed in their receiving corps that the Bills continued to have in 2023. The 30-year-old Diggs is now a possession receiver and while he enjoyed a fourth straight 100-catch season (117) and a sixth straight 1,000-yard season (1,256), his 11.1 average per catch was his lowest as a Bill.
Particularly troubling was his dropoff after Week 6. He had all five of his 100-yard games in that opening stretch, and then none over the last 13 counting the playoffs. He also had eight drops, none bigger than the bomb on what proved to be the Bills’ final possession of the season against the Chiefs.
Gabe Davis had a maddening season with 12 games where he caught three or fewer passes including five with no catches. He finished with 45 receptions on 81 targets for 746 yards and seven TDs, but there was so much more in there that never came out because too often the Bills had him blocking for others, or running clear out routes.
Khalil Shakir emerged as an Allen confidant in the second half and finished with 611 yards with 39 catches on 45 targets for an NFL-best 86.7 catch percentage. In the last 10 regular-season games, Shakir had 536 yards while Diggs had 505 despite 46 more targets.
Two free agents the Bills thought would give them nice depth failed miserably. Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty were basically invisible with a combined 26 catches for 236 yards and two TDs.
Free agency: Bills face uphill battle in 2024 as salary cap, roster decisions loom
Tight ends: B+
Dalton Kincaid was tremendously impressive as his 73 catches not only set a new Bills team record for a tight end, it was a Bills’ rookie reception record, and the fourth-most for a rookie tight end in NFL history. However, fellow rookie Sam LaPorta, who was taken nine picks below Kincaid in the second round by the Lions, set the new record with 86.
Kincaid’s 90 targets were eighth-most among all tight ends and his 73 receptions were tied for seventh, but his 9.2-yard average was 15th and that’s what I think needs to be improved on next season. Among his 90 targets, 68 were thrown either behind the line of scrimmage or within nine yards. Only 15 were in the intermediate 10- to 19-yard range, just seven beyond 20 yards. Brady has to figure out how to get Kincaid involved downfield far more than he did because if that happens, he has 1,000-yard potential.
Dawson Knox, in relation to his way-too-high salary, was a dud. Yes, he missed five games with an injury, but when he played, he was mostly ineffective with 22 catches for 186 yards and two TDs. He then added just two catches for 13 yards and a TD in the two playoff games. Kincaid has to command the vast majority of TE1 snaps next year.
The Bills began the year running plenty of two-tight end personnel to get Kincaid and Knox on the field together. That stopped once Knox got hurt, and after his return the Bills stuck primarily to their three-wide grouping with Shakir playing a bigger role than Knox, which was the right thing to do.
Offensive line: A-
The Bills enjoyed unprecedented good health up front, remarkable actually. They started the same five players in all 19 games - LT Dion Dawkins, LG Connor McGovern, C Mitch Morse, RG O’Cyrus Torrence and RT Spencer Brown. Torrence and Brown played every offensive snap and the low man was Dawkins, who played 96%.
In Pro Football Focus’ final offensive line rankings, the Bills finished with the sixth-highest grade. And of the 24 sacks Allen suffered, PFF pinned only 12 on the five men up front including just one on Dawkins. That’s why it hurt so much that it was Dawkins who got blown up by Kansas City’s Chris Jones and was pushed into Allen as he delivered the second-down pass on the final possession. If that didn’t happen, the Bills may have scored the go-ahead TD.
Line coach Aaron Kromer did a great job in varying the style of run blocks, moving off the heavy usage of inside zone blocking and taking advantage of the athleticism of his guys in gap schemes, many of which had Dawkins and Brown pulling to the opposite side. “I think Kromer did a great job at seeing what the five of us were good at, and what James liked seeing,” McGovern said.
Dawkins earned a Pro Bowl berth while McGovern proved to be a fine free agent signing. Torrence was a revelation as a rookie; his play did slide slightly late in the year but what a terrific first season to build on. Brown was the biggest positive, though, a player who had so much to prove after two injury-plagued, inconsistent seasons, and then blossomed in year three, especially as a run blocker.
Placekicking/return game: C
Tyler Bass will have to live with that KC miss all offseason, the end of what was a weird season for him. He went 24 of 29 on field goals, but was an outstanding 49 of 50 on extra points in the regular season. But in the two playoff games, oof. He missed three field goals, one of them blocked.
On kickoffs, his touchback percentage improved from 46.7% in 2022 to 55.8%, but that’s still way down from his rookie season when it was 70.3%. The Bills just signed Bass to a contract extension so I doubt his job will be on the line in training camp, but he needs to bounce back.
The Bills were harmless in the return game until the last game in Miami, when Harty’s 96-yard punt return touchdown changed that game in the fourth quarter and helped the Bills steal the AFC East. It was the longest punt return in team history, the longest in the NFL in 2023, and one of only seven league-wide TDs. Otherwise, Harty gave them nothing as his other 25 returns went for a 9.03 average.
On kickoffs, the Bills had only 17 all season, the fewest in team history which is bonkers considering there are now 17 games. The old record was 23 in 2013. Ty Johnson had the most, eight returns for a ho-hum 20.1 average.
Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out each Friday during the offseason, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills 2023 report card: Josh Allen should be MVP, Joe Brady takes over