Anthony Richardson has won the last three games he started for the Indianapolis Colts. Ultimately, that's all that matters.

But, hoooo buddy, things have not been great for 2023's fourth overall draft pick. The electric dual threat passer has embodied all the concerns that followed him from the University of Florida and throughout his rookie season as a pro. He's had a handful of shining moments but several more that have cast a pall over his 2024. He's been injured and, more importantly, inaccurate. His 48.5 percent completion rate is worst in the league, 10 points lower than 31st-place Jacoby Brissett.

Some of that can be traced to his predilection for big throws, as his 12.0 air yards per toss are by far the most among starting quarterbacks. But Joe Flacco, the veteran who has taken the field in Richardson's stead, has the league's sixth-longest average pass distance and is still managing to complete nearly 66 percent of his attempts in the same offense. Clearly, something isn't working here.

That's a rough scene. Is it rough enough to make Richardson 2024's worst starting quarterback through seven weeks? Fortunately, we’ve got some advanced stats to help figure that out.

Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.

The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 32 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 112 snaps through seven weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:

Well, that's not great for Anthony Richardson. Try to divide that graph into tiers and you get something like this:

Let’s see how this week’s rankings shook out.

1. Still alone at the top

1. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 0.205 EPA+CPOE composite

Daniels's Week 7 lasted only two passes thanks to a rib injury. It didn't matter because he was playing the Carolina Panthers. We'll see how he holds up against actual football teams in the future.

2. MVP candidates

2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.177 EPA+CPOE composite

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.172

4. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.166

To no one's surprise, these quarterbacks entering their NFL primes remain very, very good. Jackson threw four touchdown passes against the Buccaneers before the third quarter could end (and added a fifth later). Allen was Sunday's only 300-yard passer en route to turning a 10-0 deficit into a 34-10 win over the Titans. Burrow didn't have too heavy a lift to beat the Browns, but still rode his top wideouts to a pair of game-deciding touchdowns.

3. There's one trustable veteran in this tier

5. Joe Flacco, Indianapolis Colts: 0.159 EPA+CPOE composite

6. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.149

7. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.144

Goff ripped the Vikings' pressure to shreds to engineer a comeback win in Minnesota. Flacco and Carr each took a backseat to underwhelming young quarterbacks, though in Carr's case it was due to injury. Those two veterans are likely to backslide if/when they return to the lineup. Goff, on the other hand, just tore up what had been the league's top passing defense.

4. The dense middle ground of good quarterbacks (who could be better)

8. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.120 EPA+CPOE composite

9. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.119

10. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings: 0.116

11. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.108

12. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.107

13. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons: 0.105

14. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.102

15. Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.098

16. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 0.097

17. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.092

Fields brought slightly-above-average value to the lineup and still wound up replaced by Russell Wilson. It was the right move; Wilson's composite against a solid Jets defense in Week 7 was a tidy 0.155.

Smith was another Sunday standout among this group, efficiently throwing a pair of touchdowns without a turnover to pull away from Cousins (three turnovers, one touchdown) in Atlanta. Love remains a chaos engine, but when things are good... brother/sister, they are astounding.

5. Young guys from whom we mostly expected more

18. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.084 EPA+CPOE composite

19. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.080

20. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: 0.075

21. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.072

Herbert and Lawrence have both struggled with weak receiving corps -- Herbert especially. Williams and Stroud haven't had that problem. Stroud was held to one of his worst performances as a pro against the Packers in Week 7. Williams will have to face that unit twice as he tries to keep his rookie of the year momentum building.

6. We expected much more

22. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets: 0.049 EPA+CPOE composite

23. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans: 0.043

24. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 0.042

25. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.041

26. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.031

27. Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers: 0.028

The Jets have built their lineup around a quarterback who is a significant upgrade but still not a top 20 quarterback, which says so, so much about the franchise. Prescott is the highest paid player in the NFL and, thanks to a limited supporting cast, a below-average quarterback.

Stafford's twilight is being spent behind an injury-cursed offensive line without his top two wideouts. Los Angeles still has modest postseason hopes, but they're fading quickly.

7. Bad in a way that's difficult to care about

28. Gardner Minshew II, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.018 EPA+CPOE composite

29. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: 0.014

30. Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots: 0.008

31. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 0.005

Nix's closest comparisons this season are two journeymen who'd been replaced by younger quarterbacks and a historically bad Browns quarterback. Not great! Nix occasionally shows flashes of brilliance but his downfield passing remains a concern, as does sudden lapses you wouldn't expect from a guy who played 61 games of Power 5 college football.

8. The Tony Zone(y)

32. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: -0.036 EPA+CPOE composite

Richardson completed 10 of 24 passes in Week 7. He was facing the league's 16th-ranked passing defense. Only one Colt had more than 30 receiving yards. But hey, he's dynamic as a runner, provided he can stay healthy after getting hurt on designed runs multiple times in a career that has yet to reach its two-year mark.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: Anthony Richardson sinks to new depths, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen rise up Week 8 QB rankings