2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Week 5 Primer and Pickups: Connor McMichael's Dad Strength and More Goalie Rotations
We're back to our regular NHL schedule with games loaded up on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays. I'm not quite sure which I prefer - the usual setup or having roughly the same number of games each day - but the less busier slates certainly allow for managers to play catch-up.
Week 5 features only four teams - Wild, Devils, Kings and Predators - who play four games, so be sure to load up on them, especially the Wild with their super-easy schedule.
On the other hand, six teams will play just twice, including the Stars and Panthers who get a small reprieve after their two-game Global Series in Finland. The NHL will likely keep doing this every single season going forward - as they should - but note the past four series have basically been sweeps: the Panthers and Devils won both of their games this season, the Maple Leafs and Senators both went 2-0-0 in their mini-round robin last season, the Predators and Avalanche swept their in 2022, and the Lightning swept in 2019 right before the pandemic. The Sabres really should hold off on their participation, though, because they're 0-4-0 since the NHL rebranded the overseas games to Global Series from NHL Premiere.
If you want to load up against a single team, do it against the Flyers. Samuel Ersson is not expected to be available this week, and it's arguably the toughest schedule in Week 5 with road games against Carolina, Tampa and Florida. Aleksei Kolosov faces a stiff test and Ivan Fedotov cannot be hidden in the press box.
The team to avoid will be the Kraken. They simply cannot score. Again. They've been shut out two games in a row, Matty Beniers is not the No. 1 center many had envisioned and they play just two games in Week 5 against two of the toughest opponents in the West. Joey Daccord is like Lukas Dostal-lite; he offers a good save percentage but the wins are hard to come by, with Dostal getting the edge in fantasy value because he will certainly see more shots.
Schedule
Pick players from teams at the top of the schedule matrix to maximize games and matchups. Green is good. Red is bad. All advanced stats courtesy naturalstatrick.com. All positions and rostered percentages are courtesy of Yahoo Fantasy. Points percentages are as of Saturday.
Season-long adds
(< 50% rostered on Yahoo)
Casey Mittelstadt, C, Avalanche (46% rostered)
I think the return of Artturi Lehkonen and the impending return of Valeri Nichushkin can only bolster Mittelstadt's value. He'll have better wingers to play with, and might even have both once Jonathan Drouin returns if the Avs choose to re-unite Drouin with Nathan MacKinnon. The scoring pace will likely slow down because Mittelstadt won't play as many minutes, but a career season where he scores between 70-80 points is not out of the question.
Connor McMichael, C/LW, Capitals (43% rostered)
One of the reasons the Caps have been so good has been their excellent second line with McMichael, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Tom Wilson. McMichael gives that line a shooter - he had 10 (!) shots last Tuesday against the Rangers - and some playmaking ability, and the Caps have experimented with McMichael on PP1, replacing Dylan Strome. This looks like a breakout season for McMichael after his development hit a wall last season.
We should've seen this coming; McMichael became a father on Oct. 23, the night he scored two goals against the Flyers, and then proceeded to score four more in the next five games. There's always a little something extra when athletes become parents, be it increased pride, confidence and a new sense of purpose, or all of the above and beyond. In simple terms, McMichael has gained 'dad strength.'
Aliaksei Protas has been similarly hot but I see him as a lesser fantasy asset despite playing on the top line. I think he plays more of a complementary role on L1 relative to McMichael's role on L2, and Protas just doesn't have the shot volume to make up his fantasy value when he stops scoring.
Newborn alert! 👶
Just days after being born, Lowen McMichael is already in attendance to support dad! pic.twitter.com/HINDsGDqeM— NHL (@NHL) October 31, 2024
William Karlsson, C, Golden Knights (33% rostered)
I don't mind Karlsson's the third center on their depth chart since he seems to put up numbers no matter the role or ice time. He's up to five points in four games this season, and in multi-category leagues adds shots, faceoff wins and blocks.
Gabriel Vilardi, C/RW, Jets (32% rostered)
After a quiet start, Vilardi's been streaking with four goals and seven points in his past six games. I'm not convinced Vilardi can maintain this pace, and when he's not scoring he offers very little. I wouldn't be too concerned about Kyle Connor, who left Sunday's game against the Lightning, but as long as Vilardi's scoring, I don't mind rostering him in the interim.
Sean Monahan, C, Blue Jackets (28% rostered)
Even though the Jackets offense has slowed down a little bit, Monahan continues to produce at an elite level. It's very possible he finishes the campaign with 30 goals and 60-70 points - he came close last season - but I think the strongest hint he'll have a strong season is his shooting volume. He's on pace for well over 200 shots, and it'll be just the third time he's done so in his career. His role as their top center will go unchallenged all season.
Pavel Dorofeyev, LW, Golden Knights (14% rostered)
I really like Dorofeyev; he's got the offensive chops and the Knights' second line has been very good with a rejuvenated and healthy Tomas Hertl. Dorofeyev's main fantasy value will be his shots and goals, and he's expected to continue his production - though, perhaps not at the same pace - with a top-six role and ample PP minutes. If you're looking for scoring on the wings, I think Dorofeyev is one of the best value adds out there.
Pavel Dorofeyev (7G, 3A) became the sixth Golden Knight to hit the 10-point mark this season. Vegas has the second most skaters to post 10 or more points this season (Tampa Bay, 7). #VegasBorn
— VGK Communications (@VGK_PR) November 3, 2024
Mid-term holds
(< 50% rostered on Yahoo)
Logan Cooley, C, Utah (36% rostered)
Cooley has quietly deposited 10 points in 12 games, but his most recent performance against Vegas was most impressive. Cooley was promoted to the top line with Clayton Keller and Dylan Guenther, which may be one of the best young lines in the league, and he was one of four Utah forwards who played over 20 minutes. He finished with two points and won nine of his 15 faceoffs. I'm not sure Cooley will have a lot of staying power, but his fantasy value is certainly trending up.
LOGAN COOLEY! 😮💨
That's a rip! pic.twitter.com/xeYutaFhWx— NHL (@NHL) November 3, 2024
Rickard Rakell, C/RW, Penguins (23% rostered)
As long as Rakell skates on the top line with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, he's going to have good fantasy value. He's not a particularly good finisher, but his shot volume has gone up and so has his point production. He has one job on this line - score points - and retains value as long as the Pens keep their new top line intact.
Colton Parayko, D, Blues (40% rostered)
At the draft table in the very deep, 16-team Sleepers and Keepers fantasy league, one manager joked that he'd never thought Parayko getting sniped would be a source of consternation. Yet, here we are, with Parayko emerging as a stud multi-category fantasy asset with his offense with three goals and four points in his past four games.
I don't expect this to continue, but with Philip Broberg injured and Justin Faulk going quiet, Parayko has picked up some of the offensive slack from their blueline. In leagues that count hits and blocks, Parayko's recent offensive surge makes him more valuable than ever.
Owen Power, D, Sabres (36% rostered)
I am very intrigued by Power. In a similar vein to Parayko, offense has never been the selling point of Power's fantasy value. In fact, going into the season, Power's fantasy value was marginal because, like Miro Heiskanen and several others, he was a much better real-life player than in fantasy. But Power's up to nine points and 25 shots in 12 games now, with a six-game points streak snapped in a low-scoring 2-1 loss to the Wings. Bowen Byram may have moved up to the top pairing with Rasmus Dahlin briefly, but I think Power has more fantasy potential.
Justus Annunen, G, Avalanche (42% rostered)
That 5-2 loss Saturday against the Preds did not help Annunen's case to be the Avs' starter going forward. But the weird thing is it doesn't really hurt his case, either, considering Kaapo Kahkonen was hung out to dry and didn't seem particularly sharp, and Alexandar Georgiev has been arguably the worst of the three.
I think Jared Bednar will find an excuse to go back to Georgiev, but Annunen is at worst the No. 1B right now. I think the Avs' goaltending will sort itself out soon enough, and there's still a chance Annunen wins the starting job. For that reason, I still think he's still worth holding.
Charlie Lindgren, G, Capitals (38% rostered)
The Caps look seriously impressive. Lindgren has been the worst of their two starters, but it looks like as long they're winning games, they're also content going with a 50-50 split. Since the season opener, Lindgren has not allowed more than three goals per game, and it looks like he'll get the struggling Pens next.
Alex Nedeljkovic, G, Penguins (11% rostered)
If the Pens had to make a call right now, Nedeljkovic is their guy. It was interesting they started Nedeljkovic in consecutive games after it seemed like they were content rotating him and Joel Blomqvist. It was an easy two games, but Nedeljkovic made the saves when he had to. Given his experience and what he did for them last season, it looks like he'll be the Pens' starter going forward. However, temper your expectations because the Pens defense remains staggeringly horrible.
Short-term streamers
(< 50% rostered on Yahoo)
Jean-Gabriel Pageau, C, Islanders (5% rostered)
Coaches like Pageau because he's a hustle player, and no other Islander will benefit as much as Pageau with Mathew Barzal injured. He was promoted to the top line as Patrick Roy kept his second line intact, and Pageau is averaging 20 minutes over the past two games. I think his offense is really limited, but the L1 and PP1 deployment is certainly worth keeping an eye on. The issues is the Isles play Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday this week.
Cam Talbot, G, Red Wings (50% rostered)
Alex Lyon, G, Red Wings (21% rostered)
Not sure what's in store for the Wings in the coming weeks because they're a really tough team to figure out. It's a talented roster but it's also a strange potpourri of talented young players and over-the-hill vets. Talbot and Alex Lyon, both of whom have been quite strong statistically, will likely split the starts going forward.
If you have the roster space, it's good to roster both so you can capture all of the Wings' upside, as limited as it may seem. It's a tough schedule coming up, though; after the Hawks matchup on Wednesday, they have a tough back-to-back against the Leafs and Rangers on Friday and Saturday. Ville Husso, on the other hand, has seemingly zero fantasy value and it looks like the Wings may have given up on him already.
Calvin Pickard, G, Oilers (8% rostered)
I would not be surprised at all if the Oilers start Pickard over the next little while, or even split starts between him and Stuart Skinner. This is still Skinner's net, since Pickard is a career journeyman backup, but until Skinner finds his game, it would be in the Oilers' best interest to just keep riding Pickard until they can't. Pickard has won three straight games with five goals allowed.
Honorable mention:
Logan Stankoven, C/RW, Stars (42% rostered) - L1, PP2
Alex Laferriere, RW, Kings (27% rostered) - L3, PP1
Tyler Seguin, C/RW, Stars (25% rostered) - L2, PP2
Kyle Palmieri, RW, Islanders (20% rostered) - L2, PP2
Gustav Nyquist, LW, Predators (20% rostered) - L1, PP2
Conor Garland, RW, Canucks (12% rostered) - L2, PP1
Ryan Donato, C/LW, Blackhawks (9% rostered) - L1, PP1
Jake Walman, D, Sharks (34% rostered) - L1, PP2
Ryker Evans, D, Kraken (18% rostered) - L1, PP1
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