2 theories on why the NFL won’t move up its new kickoff touchback to the 35-yard line
The NFL has already seen mixed results from implementing its new dynamic kickoff rules during the 2024 preseason.
Despite having the offseason to work it in, special teams coaching staffs on squads around the league are slowly adjusting to every aspect, like players on the kicking team not being able to move until the ball is touched and the bizarre landing zone.
In anticipation of teams electing to concede field position from the 30-yard line on purposeful touchbacks (either on bounces or through the end zone), NFL chief administrator of football operations Dawn Aponte made some interesting comments Monday. She said there would be no plans to eventually move the touchback point up to the 35-yard line to discourage those who don't truly attempt to put kickoffs into play.
Sure, the league probably wants to see how the new kickoff will play out over a full year of data, but I have a strong hunch as to why it really won't move the touchback point up any earlier. (If at all.)
“It would be not likely [changing the touchback point],” Dawn Aponte said. "The way we passed this [the new kickoff] and discussed it with the Competition Committee, as well as membership at large, was really about continuing to evaluate. It is a one-year rule change, so we anticipate to evaluate this throughout the season. As we know, as things progress through the preseason, it is possible that we will see some changes as we head into the regular season. So, we will continue to monitor it. We will continue to discuss it and evaluate it."
Aponte had an intriguing tone when asked about NFL teams gaming the system and avoiding putting the ball into play on kickoffs entirely. Remember, kickers still don't have to give the returner a chance.
"[There's] still a lot to be seen as we head into the regular season and teams to just show what they’re planning to do in regular-season games versus what we’re seeing in preseason.”
Hmm. Surely the NFL understands that coaches prioritize every possible advantage within the game without asking their players to do more? Right?
That's because Aponte suggests that special teams coordinators are fibbing about how they're having their kickers approach kickoffs in the preseason. The implication is that they're playing along for now and putting the ball more into play during exhibitions -- when the new kickoff is under more scrutiny -- but once the games count, they will eat the touchback and try to keep returners from ever having a chance because they trust their defenses to hold up much more than their third phase while at a disadvantage.
I know how NFL coaches operate. It makes too much sense.
I have two well-founded theories about why Aponte addresses this touchback "problem" but ultimately downplays making any meaningful changes soon.
For one, the NFL was seemingly on the edge of already starting to nix kickoffs and special teams out of the game in the spring.
It took heavy advocacy from special teams coordinators -- because, you know, they're partly protecting their livelihoods -- to try something else. Kickoffs are notoriously the most dangerous play in football because of the high-speed contact involved between players. It's not a stretch to suggest the NFL placated some of its coaches while also foreseeing a future where they often refuse to put the ball in play much anyway because the league is trying to get football's biggest safety concerns out of the spotlight. We're talking about a masterfully induced special teams ouroboros here. I might be wrong, but I don't think the league cares that much about the returned kickoff rate as it pontificates in public.
The internal dialogue probably went something like this: "Yes, you can have these kickoffs ... but will it really be worth trying to tackle elite athletes in the open field when they have a built-in advantage? No pressure, but your choice."
A further development of this issue is increased scoring.
If you've followed the NFL long enough, you understand that it usually makes most rule changes in favor of the offense. There's the weird quarterback "body weight" roughing rule. There's the ban on hip drops -- which were never really a problem in the first place -- and only, in effect, will make it harder for defenders to bring down skill players. There's also spot foul pass interference, which somehow holds up under even minimal contact from defenders.
Definitely looks like an uncatchable pass on a play that was ruled pass interference to give the Browns first and goal at the 1
They then take the lead with 19 seconds left #CLEvsIND pic.twitter.com/q1qSxcNI8h— Bad Sports Refs (@BadSportsRefs) October 22, 2023
(Psst) Do you want to know how to subtly increase scoring without changing any tangible play between the offense and defense? You prevent kicking teams from moving before the ball is touched, in turn pushing coaches to surrender field position by default on kickoffs rather than risking big kickoff returns.
Think about it. In a game of inches, every yard counts. An NFL offense with an average starting field position at the 30-yard line only has to move about 40 yards to get in position for a reasonable field goal. It only has to engineer a 70-yard drive to score touchdowns. The best quarterbacks in the league are licking their chops about that kind of potentially consistent, comfortable setup. Even the average signal-callers would see this development as a godsend. Believe me.
Suffice it to say, I think we're about to see another mini-explosion in scoring in part because of likely improved field position.
Is there a chance that NFL coaches play along and let the dynamic kickoff take a more defined shape? Sure, I suppose. But I think it's much more likely that head coaches overrule their special teams' subordinates more often than not and that the league always knew this would happen.
If you're excited about these dynamic rules and are wondering whether the kickoff has a long-term future in the NFL, I personally wouldn't bet on it.
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This article originally appeared on For The Win: 2 theories on why the NFL won’t move up its new kickoff touchback to the 35-yard line
